Tide-surge model | National Tidal and Sea Level Facility National Tidal and Sea Level Facility Tides Storm surges Products About About tides Tides – questions and answers Sea level – questions and answers The Doodson-Légé Tide Predicting Machine Tide clocks and watches Tidal river bores The River Dee / Afon Dyfrdwy The River Mersey UK National Tide Gauge Network Data availability Tidal predictions – UK and Ireland UK South Atlantic Network Gibraltar sea level station Tidal predictions – South Atlantic Tide gauge instruments Definitions of tidal levels Chart datum and ordnance datum Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) (external link) Engineers’ page Proudman Building, Liverpool weather station About storm surges Tide-surge model Surge model forecast Surge model archive Surge model archive: 2004–2019 Surge model ensemble forecasting Skew surges Skew surge history: England – south Skew surge history: England – east Skew surge history: England – west Skew surge history: Wales Skew surge history: Scotland Skew surge history: Northern Ireland Skew surge history: Isle of Man Skew surge history: Channel Islands Sea level trends Sea level trend charts Software Tide-surge model Maintenance and development of operational tide-surge models The National Oceanography Centre Liverpool works with the Met Office to develop storm surge forecasting models for the Environment Agency. Tide-surge models are run in real-time as part of the forecast suite of models at the Met Office. Results are transmitted to the Environment Agency and used together with data from the National Tide Gauge Network for coastal flood warning. The current system uses the NEMO model run on the 7-km Atlantic Margin model domain (AMM7). Surge models run four times per day producing forecasts up to two days ahead. Ensemble forecasts ( engineers only) are also available for advanced predictions six days ahead. The model surge residual (the change in water level due to the weather) is combined with tides predicted at individual tide gauge sites to give the best estimate of the total water level. Model performance is routinely monitored at the National Oceanography Centre Liverpool by comparing forecast results with observations every month. Typical root-mean-square errors are about 10cm. Significant forecast errors are investigated and causes diagnosed so that the system can be progressively improved. The history of storm surge forecasting Prior to 2021, the system comprised of a 12-km shelf model (CS3X), with refinements to 1km and a 1-D river model in the complex regime of the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary. The first operational surge forecasts were run in 1978 using coarse grid surge and atmospheric models. Early models were dedicated computers built especially for the task, including this machine on display at the Science Museum in London. Check for flooding in: England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales Storm surge animations Previous Next Play/Stop View zoomed-in animations for: Water level 15-min interval forecast Surge level 15-min interval forecast Surge animation (15-minute interval) Previous Next Play/Stop This 2½-day forecast animation shows the total water level of tide plus storm surge progressing around the coast of the UK. The highest water level is coloured red, while the lowest level is coloured dark blue. If a high tide occurs during a large positive surge then coastal flooding is likely. Surge animation (15-minute interval) Previous Next Play/Stop This 2½-day forecast animation shows a storm surge progressing around the coast of the UK. The largest positive surge is coloured dark magenta, while the largest negative surge is coloured dark green. If a high tide occurs during a large positive surge then coastal flooding is likely. Surge model outputs View the lastest surge forecasts at tide gauges from the UK operational storm surge model.