Hurricane Research Division - NOAA/AOML Hurricane Research Division Hurricane Research The Hurricane Research Division improves forecasts and helps NOAA create a weather-ready nation by collecting observations, assimilating data, and streamlining modeling and prediction sciences. Observations we collect during our annual Hurricane Field Program are used by forecast offices around the globe to better understand how to characterize and predict the life cycle of a storm. We create next generation numerical models, optimize current observations to improve forecast guidance, and study the structure and impacts of tropical cyclones. Click through our research themes to learn more about the work we do. Dynamics and Physics This research is aimed at improving our understanding of tropical cyclones through the application of fundamental physical principles of air motion, moist thermodynamics, and radiation. Visit the Dynamics & Physics Page Observing Techniques Involves designing, testing, and automating optimal data collection. It also involves quality control, analysis, and transmission of data to improve initialization and validation of operational and research tropical-cyclone models, and to further basic understanding. Visit the Observing Systems Page Modeling and Prediction This research is aimed at developing and improving both multi-layer numerical and statistical-dynamical models for use in real-time tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity forecasting. Visit the Modeling & Prediction Page Data Assimilation Data Assimilation uses observations of tropical storms and their environments to improve hurricane models and analyze the physics of storms. We aim to improve data assimilation techniques, simplifying data sets for use in research, and to test the effectiveness of experimental and planned observations. Visit the Data Assimilation Page Featured Projects Saharan Air Layer Effects on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Extratropical Transition Forecasting Impacts in Midlatitudes Real-Time Doppler Winds Analyzing & Delivering Data in “Real-Time” Observational Instruments Using Aircraft Data Hurricane Field Program Plan Experiments, Flight Plans and Operational Maps for 2025 Visit the Plan Hurricane Field Program Data Missions, Flight Tracks, and Observational data for 2025 Visit the Data Models & Visualizations Hurricane Model Viewer Graphical products for experimental NOAA models and operational models. OceanViewer OceanViewer Ocean and atmospheric observations, both in situ and satellite, and some derived products, all useful to assess ocean and atmospheric conditions prior, during, and after tropical cyclones. Basin-Scale HWRF Basin-scale HWRF, or HWRF-B, is a testbed for research aimed at improving predictions of storm-storm, land-storm, and other multi-scale interactions. Research Capability & Expertise Airborne Observing Systems Remote Sensing, Radar, and Expendables Radar: Each WP-3D aircraft has three radars: lower fuselage, tail, and nose. The lower fuselage and tail radars are recorded and used for operational and research purposes. The nose radar is used strictly for flight safety and is not recorded for research purposes. The G-IV aircraft has a nose and a tail radar too. Expendables: Dropwindsondes are deployed from the aircraft and drift down on a parachute measuring vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, humidity and wind as they fall. They are released from the both the WP-3D and G-IV aircraft over data-sparse oceanic regions. Oceanographic instruments may be deployed from the WP-3D aircraft either from external chutes using explosive cads or from an internal drop chute. They activate upon hitting the ocean surface and radio sea temperature, salinity, and current information back to computers aboard the aircraft. Airborne eXpendable BathyThermographs (AXBT) Airborne eXpendable Current Profilers (AXCP) Airborne eXpendable Conductivity Temperature and Depth probes (AXCTD) Drifting buoys Remote Sensing: Among the suite of airborne remote sensing instruments available on the WP-3D aircraft are the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) and the C-band scatterometer (C-SCAT). The SFMR receives passive infrared radiation from the ocean surface which can produce an estimated surface wind speed. The C-SCAT conically scans the ocean surface obtaining back-scatter measurements from 20° to 50° off nadir.  This produces measurements of wave height and orientation. Drones: New uncrewed drone aircraft, launched from the WP-3D aircraft, are being tested in the tropical cyclone environment.  Valuable data from the critical, but turbulent, sub-cloud atmosphere have been gathered and analyzed to improve understanding of energy transfer in hurricanes. Go to Airborne Observation & Emerging Technologies page Data Assimilation Observation Analysis Data assimilation is a technique by which numerical model data and observations are combined to obtain an analysis that best represents the state of the atmosphere. AOML’s main goal in data assimilation is to optimize the impact of observations, especially those collected during NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program, to improve numerical model forecasts. Research includes the development and application of a state-of-the-art ensemble-based data assimilation system within the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). In parallel, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) are conducted for the systematic evaluation of proposed observational platforms geared toward better sampling of tropical weather systems. Go to Data Assimilation page. Modeling Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting HRD leads the research and development of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS)—NOAA’s state-of-the-art, high-resolution, coupled modeling system for tropical cyclones. HRD, along with NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, develops, tests, and evaluates new model components including the storm-following nest, observation-based physics, and an ocean-atmosphere coupler before making these upgrades operational. Annual participation in Hurricane Forecast Improvement Plan (HFIP) real-time experiments on NOAA High-Performance Computing systems, supported by the National Weather Service, demonstrates cutting-edge advancements in a near-operational environment to create a clear pathway for continuous upgrades from research to operations. HRD scientists also led efforts to create and improve the predecessor to HAFS, the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model. These two models together have improved prediction of tropical cyclone track and intensity by about 50% since 2007, when HFIP began. Go to our Modeling & Prediction page News & Events In the wake of hurricanes: satellites and robots reveal an altered biogeochemical landscape In the wake of hurricanes: satellites and robots reveal an altered biogeochemical landscape February 23, 2026 On August 30, 2023, Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a major Hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend after meandering through the northwestern Caribbean and intensifying over the warm waters of the Gulf of America. In its aftermath, damage on land was immediately visible, but observations from satellites and ocean-going robots revealed that the ocean was also […] Read Story December 16, 2025 AOML Presents: 12 days of Research December 12, 2025 Inside the Storm: Meet the NOAA team behind hurricane research December 2, 2025 Breaking records in the sky and sea: Innovations in research through the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season September 30, 2025 World first: Mini ocean robot collects data in a Category 5 hurricane Visit the HRD Blog Improvements in Forecasting, Weather, Floods and Hurricanes Providing Research to Make Forecasts Better This overview report includes work on the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) , a set of moving, high-resolution nests around tropical cyclones in the global weather model, and the AOML Hurricane Model Viewer View Storymap Storymap Credits: The Supplemental Program Team is managed by the NOAA Line Offices of: Oceanic and Atmospheric Research / Weather Program Office (OAR/WPO), National Weather Service / Office of Science and Technology Integration (NWS/STI), and National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Services / Center for Satellite Applications and Research (NESDIS/STAR). Featured Publication April 10, 2023 Alaka Jr, G. J., Zhang, X., & Gopalakrishnan, S. G. (2022). High-definition hurricanes: improving forecasts with storm-following nests. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103 (3), E680-E703. Abstract: To forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure changes with fidelity, numerical weather prediction models must be “high definition,” i.e., horizontal grid spacing ≤ 3 km, so that they permit clouds and convection and resolve sharp gradients of momentum and moisture in the eyewall and rainbands. Storm-following nests are computationally efficient at fine resolutions, providing a practical approach to improve TC intensity forecasts. Under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was developed to include telescopic, storm-following nests for a single TC per model integration. Download Full Paper High-Definition Hurricanes: Improving Forecasts with Storm-Following Nests April 10, 2023 Alaka Jr, G. J., Zhang, X., & Gopalakrishnan, S. G. (2022). High-definition hurricanes: improving forecasts with storm-following nests. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103 (3), E680-E703. Abstract: To forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and structure changes with fidelity, numerical weather prediction models must be “high definition,” i.e., horizontal grid spacing ≤ 3 km, so that they permit clouds and convection and resolve sharp gradients of momentum and moisture in the eyewall and rainbands. Storm-following nests are computationally efficient at fine resolutions, providing a practical approach to improve TC intensity forecasts. Under the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project, the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) system was developed to include telescopic, storm-following nests for a single TC per model integration. Download Full Paper Looking for scientific literature? Visit our Publication Database. Search Publications Dropsondes Dropsondes Measure Important Atmospheric Conditions As our Hurricane Hunter Scientists make passes through the storm, they release small sensor packages on parachutes called dropsondes. These instruments provide measurements of temperature, pressure, humidity and wind as they descend through the storm. See more of our videos on YouTube. More on Youtube Frequently Asked Questions about Hurricanes Why Don't Nuclear Weapons Destroy Hurricanes? The amount of energy that a storm produces far outweighs the energy produced by one nuclear weapon. Additionally, radioactive fallout from such an operation would far outweigh the benefits while not altering the storm. Go to FAQ How Much Energy is Released from a Hurricane? The energy released from a hurricane can be explained in two ways: the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets (latent heat), or the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong, swirling winds of a hurricane. The vast majority of the latent heat released is used to drive the convection of a storm, but the total energy released from condensation is 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity, or 6.0 x 10 14 watts per day. If you measure the total kinetic energy instead, it comes out to about 1.5 x 10 12 watts per day, or ½ of the world-wide electrical generating capacity. While the latent release of heat feeds a hurricane’s momentum, only a small fraction goes into wind energy.  Much more is fed back into the ocean surface as wave energy. Go to FAQ What Causes Tropical Cyclones? Throughout the tropical atmosphere there is abundant energy that forces convection.  However, tropical cyclone formation requires other favorable conditions such as low shear, instability, and mid-level moisture. These variables don’t often coincide, which is why cyclogenesis is fairly rare. These factors vary with the seasons.  In the Atlantic, it is usually in mid-August to mid-October when the subtropical ridge moves northward enough to allow the deep tropical flow to push disturbances off Africa over the warm seas. These African Easterly Waves are pressure fluctuations in the lower troposphere (ocean surface to 3 miles above) that travel from Africa at speeds of about 3mph westward as a result of the African Easterly Jet.  About 85% of intense hurricanes and about 60% of smaller storms have their origin in these African Easterly Waves.  The rest of them form from old frontal zones over warm water or from subtropical disturbances from the mid-latitudes. Go to FAQ Why are Tropical Cyclones Always Worse on the Right Side? If a hurricane is moving to the west, the right side would be to the north of the storm, if it is heading north, then the right side would be to the east of the storm. The movement of a hurricane can be broken into two parts- the spiral movement and its forward movement. If the hurricane is moving forward, the side of the spiral with winds parallel and facing forward in the direction of movement will go faster, because you are adding two velocities together. The side of the spiral parallel to the movement, but going in the opposite direction will be slower, because you must subtract the velocity moving away (backwards) from the forward velocity. For example, a hurricane with 90mph winds moving at 10mph would have a 100mph wind speed on the right (forward-moving) side and 80 mph on the side with the backward motion. Go to FAQ How are Hurricanes Named? Prior to the late 19th century, hurricane were named after the fact, usually after saints’ feast days or unusual circumstances. In 1896, Clement Wragge, chief of the Queensland Weather Bureau, began using women’s names for tropical cyclones near Australia.  While the practice lapsed for several decades, it was revived by Army Air Force meteorologists during World War II.  The US Weather Bureau adopted woman’s name lists officially in 1953 for Atlantic hurricanes. In 1979, the lists were modified, alternating men and women’s names. Today, name lists are maintained by the United Nations World Meteorological Organization for multiple oceanic basins. Most lists rotate every few years.  In the Atlantic, it rotates every six years. Go to FAQ Visit the FAQ Reddit AMA With Hurricane Hunters Dr. Frank Marks & Commander Justin Kibbey Read on Reddit Contact Dr. Ghassan “Gus” Alaka 305.361.4409 ⨕  Ghassan “Gus” Alaka, Ph.D  ⨕ Director, Hurricane Research Division Shirley Murillo 305.361.4509 ⨕  Vacant  ⨕ Deputy Director, Hurricane Research Division See The Divisional Directory Our Field Photos Scientists and Hurricane Hunters Paul Reasor and Robert Rogers preparing for flight into Hurricane Barry. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. The Global Hawk unmanned aircraft can fly continuously for 24 hours in a storm, collecting critical atmospheric data. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. Sunrise photo above the clouds from a hurricane hunter aircraft. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. Frank Marks Takes a Selfie with Ms. Piggy- The P3 aircraft have nicknames. This one is called Miss Piggy after one of Jim Henson’s The Muppets character. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. Photo of the P3 flying science lab on the tarmac ready for its next flight. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. Scientist drops scientific instruments into the hurricane below to take measurements that improve our forecasts. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. The eye of a hurricane as seen by a P3 aircraft. Photo Credit, NOAA AOML. Hurricane researchers Paul Reasor (L) and Rob Rogers (R) are hard at work analyzing data during their flight into Tropical Storm Barry. Photo Credit: NOAA.