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Archived: 2026-04-23 15:19
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+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026
...Thunderstorms forecast for the Upper Midwest and central/southern
Plains today with severe weather and isolated flash flooding possible...
...Heavy snow continues for higher elevations of the northern Rockies
today...
...Gusty winds and warm, very dry conditions will lead to a Critical Risk
of fire weather across much of the central/southern High Plains today...
A potent upper-trough has begun to emerge over the Plains/Midwest today
while lingering over the Rockies, leading to widespread impactful weather
including severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, wildfires, and heavy snow.
Strong southerly winds ahead of an accompanying surface cold front will
advect Gulf moisture and higher instability northward to initiate
widespread thunderstorms stretching from the Upper Midwest southwest
through the central/southern Plains today (Thursday). Strong upper- and
lower-level wind fields will support the threat of severe weather, and a
broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center is in place
across the region with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all
possible. A locally higher Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been introduced
over portions of eastern Kansas where a combination of higher instability
and favorable low-level shear could lead to very large hail and a strong
tornado. Locally heavy downpours as well as increasing thunderstorm
coverage along the front into the evening hours will also bring an
isolated risk for flash flooding. The front will continue eastward Friday
bringing thunderstorms into the Great Lakes region southwest through the
Mississippi Valley. The severe weather threat will shift southeastward
from the ArkLaTex east to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a Slight Risk
in place mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Isolated
flash flooding will be a threat here as well.
Meanwhile, to the west, heavy snow will continue today and linger into
Friday for higher elevations of the northern Rockies within the much
colder regime under the base of the upper-trough. Some snow may also mix
in for the mountain valleys as well as into portions of the northern High
Plains, though accumulations should generally remain light. There is some
potential for locally impactful amounts for northeast Montana along the
Canadian border where a stronger snow band may materialize. Beyond the
precipitation threats, a deep surface low and troughing southward along
the lee of the Rockies will bring very strong, gusty winds, particularly
across portions of the northern Plains. Warm, dry conditions with these
gusty downsloping winds across the central and southern High Plains has
prompted another Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) from the Storm
Prediction Center today.
Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will continue today across portions of
Louisiana as well as South Florida. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday. A secondary surge of upper-energy
from the north will bring renewed precipitation chances into portions of
California east into the Great Basin by early Saturday. Temperatures will
be variable along the northern tier of the U.S. given expected frontal
passages. Forecast highs today across the northern/central Plains,
Midwest, and into the Mid-Atlantic will be above average and into the 70s
and low 80s. A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures in the 40s
and 50s to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday while the Great
Lakes region remains above average. New England will remain cooler north
of a frontal boundary, with highs in the 40s and 50s. This front is
expected to slide southward Friday into Saturday bringing cooler
temperatures in the 50s and 60s into the Mid-Atlantic. Conditions along
the southern tier will remain more consistently warm and above average,
with 80s from the Southern Plains east into the Southeast. Most of the
western U.S. will hover around average the next couple of days, with 50s
and 60s for the Pacific Northwest and Interior West, 60s and 70s for
California, and 80s and 90s for the Desert Southwest. Much colder
temperatures will linger under the upper-trough across the northern
Rockies, with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026
...Overview...
An amplified and progressive spring pattern continues across much
of CONUS as a surface low and frontal passage moves northeastward
from the central Plains into the upper Midwest and across eastern
U.S., which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
through next Wednesday. In addition, troughing over the West will
shift inland, bring chances for low elevation rain and mountain
snow across the Intermountain West/Rockies into the Plains.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic model runs continue to show reasonably
good agreement on the larger scale evolution through the first
portion of the period. Later in the period, the GFS guidance shows
a faster progression with the trough over the the South-Central
Canada. The GEFS and ECENS ensemble means provides a stable
intermediate solution to address timing and amplitude differences
of the shortwave energy embedded within the trough over the
Northern tier, as well as the Pacific energy off the West Coast.
Therefore, the forecast leans towards a blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian/EC- AIFS towards the start of the period,
with incorporating the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means after
Day 4.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key
Messages are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 00Z Fri 24 Apr 2026 - 00Z Fri 01 May 2026
A classic trade wind regime pattern has set up across the islands
early in the period. An upper-level trough currently exiting to
the east will be replaced by a subtropical ridge building from the
north- northwest. In terms of the guidance, a multi-model blend
again appears reasonable given general spatial and timing
agreement with the main features aloft and at the surface.
In the short term (through Saturday), continue to expect an
uptick in stability and decreasing deep-layer moisture given the
strengthening subsidence and lowering inversion (to between
5-7 kft). As such, showers will remain isolated to scattered,
predominately across the windward and mauka areas.
A slight uptick in moisture (PWATs increasing to 1.4-1.5") is
expected late Sunday through Tuesday as a weak surface trough
traverses the islands. This will allow for higher PoPs, i.e. more
scattered (vs. isolated) showers across windward slopes. Behind
the trough, moisture levels will drop back to seasonal norms
while the trades re-establish.
Wegman/Hurley
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Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 12Z 04/24/2026
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Valid 12Z 04/25/2026 - 12Z 04/26/2026
Valid 12Z 04/26/2026 - 12Z 04/27/2026
Valid 12Z 04/27/2026 - 12Z 04/28/2026
Valid 12Z 04/28/2026 - 12Z 04/29/2026
Valid 12Z 04/29/2026 - 12Z 04/30/2026
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 12Z 04/25/2026
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 12Z 04/26/2026
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 12Z 04/28/2026
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 12Z 04/30/2026
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Valid 06Z 04/24/2026 - 18Z 04/24/2026
Valid 12Z 04/24/2026 - 00Z 04/25/2026
Valid 18Z 04/24/2026 - 06Z 04/25/2026
Valid 00Z 04/25/2026 - 12Z 04/25/2026
Valid 06Z 04/25/2026 - 18Z 04/25/2026
Valid 12Z 04/25/2026 - 00Z 04/26/2026
Valid 18Z 04/25/2026 - 06Z 04/26/2026
Valid 00Z 04/26/2026 - 12Z 04/26/2026
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 18Z 04/23/2026
Valid 18Z 04/23/2026 - 00Z 04/24/2026
Valid 00Z 04/24/2026 - 06Z 04/24/2026
Valid 06Z 04/24/2026 - 12Z 04/24/2026
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Day 1-2
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Day 1-7
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts
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Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026
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+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
Convection is expected to blossom this afternoon along and ahead of
a cold front in the Central U.S. The warm sector ahead of the front
should be characterized by an overlap of moderate instability (1000
to 2000 j/kg MLCAPE) and anomalously high moisture content (1.0 to
1.5 inch PWATs; near or above the 90th percentile for late April).
The combination of instability and moisture should support heavy
rain rates in organized convection in excess of 1 inch per hour at
times. The main limiting factor for higher rainfall totals over the
entire forecast period, and any impacts from flash flooding, should
be a lack of persistence to the high rain rates in a given spot.
From the I-70 corridor to the north, lines of thunderstorms are
expected to be relatively narrow and steadily progress, given the
deep layer shear vectors will be oriented closer to perpendicular
with the cold front. Therefore, despite some pockets of lower flash
flood guidance (around or just under 2 inches in 3 hours), and
recent wet pattern in parts of the region, the heaviest rain rates
should not last very long and the flash flood risk is expected to
remain isolated. Furthermore, instability diminishes rapidly around
sunset, so rain intensity should drop off within about 6 hours of
convective initiation. It should be noted this assessment does not
necessarily apply to other flooding risks in the region: ongoing
mainstem river flooding, or potential for rain and snowmelt
flooding in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. For more details on
those flooding hazards, refer to the National Water Center.
Further south, the pattern will be more supportive of backbuilding
and training convection, especially this evening and overnight from
southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma and the Ozark region of
southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. As the low level jet
veers and an upstream instability maximum persists in eastern
Oklahoma, hi-res models uniformly show a band of thunderstorms
becoming increasingly east-west oriented, more parallel to the deep
layer shear vector. Nevertheless, they all also show steady
progression to the southeast with some cold pool development, and a
lack of rainfall maxima in excess of 3 inches. Therefore, the risk
of flash flooding is currently expected to be isolated, but the
situation will be monitored in case a targeted Slight Risk is
needed later today.
Lamers
Day 1 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE MID SOUTH...
A convective cluster or backbuilding convective line may be ongoing
on Friday morning -- most likely across northern Arkansas based on
00Z HREF EAS probabilities -- with the potential for additional
convective clusters to develop through the day across the region.
Updated WPC QPF places the heaviest rainfall across Arkansas,
northern Mississippi, and far northern Louisiana, and this is where
the Marginal Risk area was re-centered. There is some uncertainty
on where the heaviest rain will fall, as it should be tied in some
way to convective outflow from morning and early afternoon
activity. The warm sector to the south and southeast of that should
have a combination of moderate instability and precipitable water
close to 1.5 inches (around the 90th percentile for late April).
That sort of environment would support rain rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour in organized convection, which could lead to isolated
flash flooding where backbuilding and training occurs.
Lamers
Day 2 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
Available deep moisture in the southern Plains on Saturday should
be lower than prior days across the region, with model forecast
soundings indicating the potential for dry air from 800-600mb
associated with an elevated mixed layer. This would likely restrict
any excessive rainfall and flash flooding concerns to the isolated
variety. Nevertheless, strong instability and vertical wind shear
should support supercells evolving into convective lines. There is
not a consistent signal for concentrated areas of heavy rain, but
with the expected convective modes, localized areas of longer heavy
rain duration are possible via storm mergers and some upshear cell
development. Any corridors of heavy rain on Thursday or Friday
could also locally increase soil moisture and vulnerability to
another round of heavy rain. Therefore, the Marginal Risk was
maintained for Saturday and Saturday Night.
Lamers
Day 3 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
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+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026
...Northern Rockies to the High Plains...
Days 1-2...
A 500mb vorticity maximum diving south from Alberta will interact
with a negatively-tilted disturbance over eastern MT to produce a
large and strengthening closed-low over south-central Canada
Thursday night. The 500mb pattern over North America by Friday
features a +PNA and -NAO regime that effectively weakens the 500mb
zonal flow over the continent and causes this closed low to remain
quasi-stationary into the upcoming weekend. A steady stream of
700-300mb moisture on the western flank of the strengthening upper
low will be placed over the Northern Rockies while, at the same
time, surface high pressure over western Canada builds in. This
combination of easterly upslope flow via strengthening high
pressure to the north, along with a more than sufficient 850-700mb
CAA aloft will support periods of moderate-to-heavy snow over much
of the Northern Rockies, including ranges as far south as the
Tetons, Wind River, and Big Horns. The heaviest snow will reside
over the Bitterroots, Lewis Range, and Absaroka where upslope flow
and the core of the coldest temperatures aloft will reside the
longest with snow lasting through the day on Friday. Snow levels
will crash as low as 2,000ft in western MT and northern ID.
Perhaps the trickiest aspect of this forecast is the deformation
zone banding on the western and southwest flank of the develop
upper low this morning. Around 12Z, latest 00Z CAMs show the
atmospheric column cooling enough to support moderate-to-heavy snow
in northeast MT. After subsiding Thursday afternoon, 500mb
vorticity maxima revolving around the western flank of the closed
low looks to reinvigorate snow showers Thursday night and into
Friday morning. The NAM CIPS snow squall parameter shows a staunch
signal for snow squalls early Friday morning that could still
persist through the day given the unusually cold temperatures aloft
when combined with strong surface based heating during the day.
Snowfall totals are likely only to be around a coating to 2"in
these areas, but given north of the MT border, a narrow axis of >6"
snowfall totals is depicted in southern Saskatchewan. Any 50-100
mile shift south in the TROWAL axis over southern Canada could lead
to locally heavier amounts over northern MT that surpass 6".
WPC probabilities for this event show moderate-to-high chances
(50-80%) for snowfall totals >12" in the peaks of the Northern
Rockies above 6,000ft. Some hazardous travel impacts at pass level
are likely, although with NOHRSC showing many of these mountain
ranges with below normal snow depth for late April per NOHRSC, most
of the expected snowfall will be welcome. WPC probabilities also
snow a small portion of northeast MT with moderate-to-high chances
(50-80%) where snowfall totals >4" are depicted, suggesting some
members of the WPC super ensemble do in fact show the heavy snow
banding potentially protruding into northeast MT. The WSSI
generally shows Minor to locally Moderate Impacts in all of these
aforementioned locations with Snow Amounts being the primary driver
in impact over the Northern Rockies. The WSSI suggest Blowing Snow
is the bigger potential impact from the Little Belt and Big Snowy
Mountains on east into the High Plains of northern MT.
...Sierra Nevada & Central Rockies...
Day 3...
A 500mb shortwave trough rotating around the southern flank of a
500mb low off the CA coast will track into the Southwest U.S. on
Saturday, bringing with it a slug of 700-300mb moisture.
Temperatures aloft are not overly cold, but healthy 500mb
vorticity advection coupled with the diffluent left-exit region of
a 250mb jet streak aloft supports vertical ascent. Plus, a 250-500
kg/m/s IVT over the Southwest supplies the Pacific moisture needed
to foster mountain snow. The lack of a very cold air-mass and the
progressive nature of this shortwave trough will keep snowfall
amounts more beneficial than harmful at a time where these mountain
ranges could use more snowpack. WPC probabilities show moderate-
to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >4" in southern
Sierra Nevada above 8,000ft and the more remote reaches of the
Wasatch, San Juans, Uinta, and central CO Rockies.
The probability for significant icing over one-tenth of an inch is
less than 10 percent.
Mullinax
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Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26, 2026
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 27, 2026
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Valid 12Z Thu Apr 30, 2026
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+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026
...Overview...
An amplified and progressive spring pattern continues across much
of CONUS as a surface low and frontal passage moves northeastward
from the central Plains into the upper Midwest and across eastern
U.S., which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
through next Wednesday. In addition, troughing over the West will
shift inland, bring chances for low elevation rain and mountain
snow across the Intermountain West/Rockies into the Plains.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic model runs continue to show reasonably
good agreement on the larger scale evolution through the first
portion of the period. Later in the period, the GFS guidance shows
a faster progression with the trough over the the South-Central
Canada. The GEFS and ECENS ensemble means provides a stable
intermediate solution to address timing and amplitude differences
of the shortwave energy embedded within the trough over the
Northern tier, as well as the Pacific energy off the West Coast.
Therefore, the forecast leans towards a blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian/EC- AIFS towards the start of the period,
with incorporating the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means after
Day 4.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key
Messages are at:
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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
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+ Short Range Forecast Discussion (Day ½-2½)
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026
...Thunderstorms forecast for the Upper Midwest and central/southern
Plains today with severe weather and isolated flash flooding possible...
...Heavy snow continues for higher elevations of the northern Rockies
today...
...Gusty winds and warm, very dry conditions will lead to a Critical Risk
of fire weather across much of the central/southern High Plains today...
A potent upper-trough has begun to emerge over the Plains/Midwest today
while lingering over the Rockies, leading to widespread impactful weather
including severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, wildfires, and heavy snow.
Strong southerly winds ahead of an accompanying surface cold front will
advect Gulf moisture and higher instability northward to initiate
widespread thunderstorms stretching from the Upper Midwest southwest
through the central/southern Plains today (Thursday). Strong upper- and
lower-level wind fields will support the threat of severe weather, and a
broad Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center is in place
across the region with damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all
possible. A locally higher Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) has been introduced
over portions of eastern Kansas where a combination of higher instability
and favorable low-level shear could lead to very large hail and a strong
tornado. Locally heavy downpours as well as increasing thunderstorm
coverage along the front into the evening hours will also bring an
isolated risk for flash flooding. The front will continue eastward Friday
bringing thunderstorms into the Great Lakes region southwest through the
Mississippi Valley. The severe weather threat will shift southeastward
from the ArkLaTex east to the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a Slight Risk
in place mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Isolated
flash flooding will be a threat here as well.
Meanwhile, to the west, heavy snow will continue today and linger into
Friday for higher elevations of the northern Rockies within the much
colder regime under the base of the upper-trough. Some snow may also mix
in for the mountain valleys as well as into portions of the northern High
Plains, though accumulations should generally remain light. There is some
potential for locally impactful amounts for northeast Montana along the
Canadian border where a stronger snow band may materialize. Beyond the
precipitation threats, a deep surface low and troughing southward along
the lee of the Rockies will bring very strong, gusty winds, particularly
across portions of the northern Plains. Warm, dry conditions with these
gusty downsloping winds across the central and southern High Plains has
prompted another Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3) from the Storm
Prediction Center today.
Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will continue today across portions of
Louisiana as well as South Florida. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary through the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday and Saturday. A secondary surge of upper-energy
from the north will bring renewed precipitation chances into portions of
California east into the Great Basin by early Saturday. Temperatures will
be variable along the northern tier of the U.S. given expected frontal
passages. Forecast highs today across the northern/central Plains,
Midwest, and into the Mid-Atlantic will be above average and into the 70s
and low 80s. A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures in the 40s
and 50s to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest Friday while the Great
Lakes region remains above average. New England will remain cooler north
of a frontal boundary, with highs in the 40s and 50s. This front is
expected to slide southward Friday into Saturday bringing cooler
temperatures in the 50s and 60s into the Mid-Atlantic. Conditions along
the southern tier will remain more consistently warm and above average,
with 80s from the Southern Plains east into the Southeast. Most of the
western U.S. will hover around average the next couple of days, with 50s
and 60s for the Pacific Northwest and Interior West, 60s and 70s for
California, and 80s and 90s for the Desert Southwest. Much colder
temperatures will linger under the upper-trough across the northern
Rockies, with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
+ Medium Range Forecast Discussion (Day 3-7)
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026
...Overview...
An amplified and progressive spring pattern continues across much
of CONUS as a surface low and frontal passage moves northeastward
from the central Plains into the upper Midwest and across eastern
U.S., which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
through next Wednesday. In addition, troughing over the West will
shift inland, bring chances for low elevation rain and mountain
snow across the Intermountain West/Rockies into the Plains.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic model runs continue to show reasonably
good agreement on the larger scale evolution through the first
portion of the period. Later in the period, the GFS guidance shows
a faster progression with the trough over the the South-Central
Canada. The GEFS and ECENS ensemble means provides a stable
intermediate solution to address timing and amplitude differences
of the shortwave energy embedded within the trough over the
Northern tier, as well as the Pacific energy off the West Coast.
Therefore, the forecast leans towards a blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian/EC- AIFS towards the start of the period,
with incorporating the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means after
Day 4.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key
Messages are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
+ Hawaii Forecast Discussion (Day 1-7)
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 00Z Fri 24 Apr 2026 - 00Z Fri 01 May 2026
A classic trade wind regime pattern has set up across the islands
early in the period. An upper-level trough currently exiting to
the east will be replaced by a subtropical ridge building from the
north- northwest. In terms of the guidance, a multi-model blend
again appears reasonable given general spatial and timing
agreement with the main features aloft and at the surface.
In the short term (through Saturday), continue to expect an
uptick in stability and decreasing deep-layer moisture given the
strengthening subsidence and lowering inversion (to between
5-7 kft). As such, showers will remain isolated to scattered,
predominately across the windward and mauka areas.
A slight uptick in moisture (PWATs increasing to 1.4-1.5") is
expected late Sunday through Tuesday as a weak surface trough
traverses the islands. This will allow for higher PoPs, i.e. more
scattered (vs. isolated) showers across windward slopes. Behind
the trough, moisture levels will drop back to seasonal norms
while the trades re-establish.
Wegman/Hurley
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Valid 18Z 04/24/2026 - 06Z 04/25/2026
Valid 00Z 04/25/2026 - 12Z 04/25/2026
Valid 06Z 04/25/2026 - 18Z 04/25/2026
Valid 12Z 04/25/2026 - 00Z 04/26/2026
Valid 18Z 04/25/2026 - 06Z 04/26/2026
Valid 00Z 04/26/2026 - 12Z 04/26/2026
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 18Z 04/23/2026
Valid 18Z 04/23/2026 - 00Z 04/24/2026
Valid 00Z 04/24/2026 - 06Z 04/24/2026
Valid 06Z 04/24/2026 - 12Z 04/24/2026
Valid 12Z 04/24/2026 - 18Z 04/24/2026
Valid 18Z 04/24/2026 - 00Z 04/25/2026
Valid 00Z 04/25/2026 - 06Z 04/25/2026
Valid 06Z 04/25/2026 - 12Z 04/25/2026
Valid 12Z 04/25/2026 - 18Z 04/25/2026
Valid 18Z 04/25/2026 - 00Z 04/26/2026
Valid 00Z 04/26/2026 - 06Z 04/26/2026
Valid 06Z 04/26/2026 - 12Z 04/26/2026
Valid 12Z 04/26/2026 - 12Z 04/28/2026
Valid 12Z 04/28/2026 - 12Z 04/30/2026
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Total:
Day 1-2
Day 1-3
Day 1-5
Day 1-7
12-00Z
18-06Z
00-12Z
06-18Z
12-00Z
18-06Z
00-12Z
06-18Z
12-00Z
18-06Z
00-12Z
12-18Z
18-00Z
00-06Z
06-12Z
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00-06Z
06-12Z
12-18Z
18-00Z
00-06Z
06-12Z
Day 4/5
Day 6/7
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Excessive Rainfall Forecasts
Interactive Page
:
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026 - 12Z Mon Apr 27 2026
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 27 2026 - 12Z Tue Apr 28 2026
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Interactive Page
+ Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
Convection is expected to blossom this afternoon along and ahead of
a cold front in the Central U.S. The warm sector ahead of the front
should be characterized by an overlap of moderate instability (1000
to 2000 j/kg MLCAPE) and anomalously high moisture content (1.0 to
1.5 inch PWATs; near or above the 90th percentile for late April).
The combination of instability and moisture should support heavy
rain rates in organized convection in excess of 1 inch per hour at
times. The main limiting factor for higher rainfall totals over the
entire forecast period, and any impacts from flash flooding, should
be a lack of persistence to the high rain rates in a given spot.
From the I-70 corridor to the north, lines of thunderstorms are
expected to be relatively narrow and steadily progress, given the
deep layer shear vectors will be oriented closer to perpendicular
with the cold front. Therefore, despite some pockets of lower flash
flood guidance (around or just under 2 inches in 3 hours), and
recent wet pattern in parts of the region, the heaviest rain rates
should not last very long and the flash flood risk is expected to
remain isolated. Furthermore, instability diminishes rapidly around
sunset, so rain intensity should drop off within about 6 hours of
convective initiation. It should be noted this assessment does not
necessarily apply to other flooding risks in the region: ongoing
mainstem river flooding, or potential for rain and snowmelt
flooding in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. For more details on
those flooding hazards, refer to the National Water Center.
Further south, the pattern will be more supportive of backbuilding
and training convection, especially this evening and overnight from
southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma and the Ozark region of
southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. As the low level jet
veers and an upstream instability maximum persists in eastern
Oklahoma, hi-res models uniformly show a band of thunderstorms
becoming increasingly east-west oriented, more parallel to the deep
layer shear vector. Nevertheless, they all also show steady
progression to the southeast with some cold pool development, and a
lack of rainfall maxima in excess of 3 inches. Therefore, the risk
of flash flooding is currently expected to be isolated, but the
situation will be monitored in case a targeted Slight Risk is
needed later today.
Lamers
Day 1 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE MID SOUTH...
A convective cluster or backbuilding convective line may be ongoing
on Friday morning -- most likely across northern Arkansas based on
00Z HREF EAS probabilities -- with the potential for additional
convective clusters to develop through the day across the region.
Updated WPC QPF places the heaviest rainfall across Arkansas,
northern Mississippi, and far northern Louisiana, and this is where
the Marginal Risk area was re-centered. There is some uncertainty
on where the heaviest rain will fall, as it should be tied in some
way to convective outflow from morning and early afternoon
activity. The warm sector to the south and southeast of that should
have a combination of moderate instability and precipitable water
close to 1.5 inches (around the 90th percentile for late April).
That sort of environment would support rain rates of 1 to 2 inches
per hour in organized convection, which could lead to isolated
flash flooding where backbuilding and training occurs.
Lamers
Day 2 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS, SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...
Available deep moisture in the southern Plains on Saturday should
be lower than prior days across the region, with model forecast
soundings indicating the potential for dry air from 800-600mb
associated with an elevated mixed layer. This would likely restrict
any excessive rainfall and flash flooding concerns to the isolated
variety. Nevertheless, strong instability and vertical wind shear
should support supercells evolving into convective lines. There is
not a consistent signal for concentrated areas of heavy rain, but
with the expected convective modes, localized areas of longer heavy
rain duration are possible via storm mergers and some upshear cell
development. Any corridors of heavy rain on Thursday or Friday
could also locally increase soil moisture and vulnerability to
another round of heavy rain. Therefore, the Marginal Risk was
maintained for Saturday and Saturday Night.
Lamers
Day 3 threat area:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
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Understanding WPC Excessive Rainfall Risk Categories
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Excessive Rainfall Outlook Climatology
Winter Weather Forecasts
Legacy Page
:
Valid 12Z 04/23/2026 - 12Z 04/24/2026
Valid 12Z 04/24/2026 - 12Z 04/25/2026
Valid 12Z 04/25/2026 - 12Z 04/26/2026
Valid 12Z 04/26/2026 - 12Z 04/27/2026
Valid 12Z 04/27/2026 - 12Z 04/28/2026
Valid 12Z 04/28/2026 - 12Z 04/29/2026
Valid 12Z 04/29/2026 - 12Z 04/30/2026
Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 1-3 Image Options:
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+ Forecast Discussion (Day 1-3)
Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 23 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026
...Northern Rockies to the High Plains...
Days 1-2...
A 500mb vorticity maximum diving south from Alberta will interact
with a negatively-tilted disturbance over eastern MT to produce a
large and strengthening closed-low over south-central Canada
Thursday night. The 500mb pattern over North America by Friday
features a +PNA and -NAO regime that effectively weakens the 500mb
zonal flow over the continent and causes this closed low to remain
quasi-stationary into the upcoming weekend. A steady stream of
700-300mb moisture on the western flank of the strengthening upper
low will be placed over the Northern Rockies while, at the same
time, surface high pressure over western Canada builds in. This
combination of easterly upslope flow via strengthening high
pressure to the north, along with a more than sufficient 850-700mb
CAA aloft will support periods of moderate-to-heavy snow over much
of the Northern Rockies, including ranges as far south as the
Tetons, Wind River, and Big Horns. The heaviest snow will reside
over the Bitterroots, Lewis Range, and Absaroka where upslope flow
and the core of the coldest temperatures aloft will reside the
longest with snow lasting through the day on Friday. Snow levels
will crash as low as 2,000ft in western MT and northern ID.
Perhaps the trickiest aspect of this forecast is the deformation
zone banding on the western and southwest flank of the develop
upper low this morning. Around 12Z, latest 00Z CAMs show the
atmospheric column cooling enough to support moderate-to-heavy snow
in northeast MT. After subsiding Thursday afternoon, 500mb
vorticity maxima revolving around the western flank of the closed
low looks to reinvigorate snow showers Thursday night and into
Friday morning. The NAM CIPS snow squall parameter shows a staunch
signal for snow squalls early Friday morning that could still
persist through the day given the unusually cold temperatures aloft
when combined with strong surface based heating during the day.
Snowfall totals are likely only to be around a coating to 2"in
these areas, but given north of the MT border, a narrow axis of >6"
snowfall totals is depicted in southern Saskatchewan. Any 50-100
mile shift south in the TROWAL axis over southern Canada could lead
to locally heavier amounts over northern MT that surpass 6".
WPC probabilities for this event show moderate-to-high chances
(50-80%) for snowfall totals >12" in the peaks of the Northern
Rockies above 6,000ft. Some hazardous travel impacts at pass level
are likely, although with NOHRSC showing many of these mountain
ranges with below normal snow depth for late April per NOHRSC, most
of the expected snowfall will be welcome. WPC probabilities also
snow a small portion of northeast MT with moderate-to-high chances
(50-80%) where snowfall totals >4" are depicted, suggesting some
members of the WPC super ensemble do in fact show the heavy snow
banding potentially protruding into northeast MT. The WSSI
generally shows Minor to locally Moderate Impacts in all of these
aforementioned locations with Snow Amounts being the primary driver
in impact over the Northern Rockies. The WSSI suggest Blowing Snow
is the bigger potential impact from the Little Belt and Big Snowy
Mountains on east into the High Plains of northern MT.
...Sierra Nevada & Central Rockies...
Day 3...
A 500mb shortwave trough rotating around the southern flank of a
500mb low off the CA coast will track into the Southwest U.S. on
Saturday, bringing with it a slug of 700-300mb moisture.
Temperatures aloft are not overly cold, but healthy 500mb
vorticity advection coupled with the diffluent left-exit region of
a 250mb jet streak aloft supports vertical ascent. Plus, a 250-500
kg/m/s IVT over the Southwest supplies the Pacific moisture needed
to foster mountain snow. The lack of a very cold air-mass and the
progressive nature of this shortwave trough will keep snowfall
amounts more beneficial than harmful at a time where these mountain
ranges could use more snowpack. WPC probabilities show moderate-
to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >4" in southern
Sierra Nevada above 8,000ft and the more remote reaches of the
Wasatch, San Juans, Uinta, and central CO Rockies.
The probability for significant icing over one-tenth of an inch is
less than 10 percent.
Mullinax
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Medium Range Forecasts
Legacy Page
:
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26, 2026
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 27, 2026
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 28, 2026
Valid 12Z Wed Apr 29, 2026
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 30, 2026
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
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+ Forecast Discussion
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 26 2026 - 12Z Thu Apr 30 2026
...Overview...
An amplified and progressive spring pattern continues across much
of CONUS as a surface low and frontal passage moves northeastward
from the central Plains into the upper Midwest and across eastern
U.S., which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area
through next Wednesday. In addition, troughing over the West will
shift inland, bring chances for low elevation rain and mountain
snow across the Intermountain West/Rockies into the Plains.
...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The latest deterministic model runs continue to show reasonably
good agreement on the larger scale evolution through the first
portion of the period. Later in the period, the GFS guidance shows
a faster progression with the trough over the the South-Central
Canada. The GEFS and ECENS ensemble means provides a stable
intermediate solution to address timing and amplitude differences
of the shortwave energy embedded within the trough over the
Northern tier, as well as the Pacific energy off the West Coast.
Therefore, the forecast leans towards a blend of the
GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/Canadian/EC- AIFS towards the start of the period,
with incorporating the GEFS/ECMWF/Canadian ensemble means after
Day 4.
...Weather/Hazards Highlights...
The closed upper low and trough over northern High Plains/south-
central Canada will continue to slowly lift and hover over southern
Canada through the period. The system will carry multiple embedded
shortwaves rotating round the base of the trough, along with
northern tier secondary frontal passages and Canadian high
pressure onset. This will bring lower elevation rain and terrain
enhanced snow across parts of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
the Plains. The trough extending off the West Coast will eject
shortwave energy flow eastward into the Southwest through Sunday.
This will reinvigorate a round of widespread rain/mountain snows
along/north of the main system track from the Great Basin to the
Rockies, lingering into early next week along with a threat of
strong gusty winds, especially over the south- central
Rockies/high plains.
A strengthening surface low and frontal boundary will move across
the central Plains/Mississippi Valley into the Midwest by Monday,
serving as a focus for repeated round of showers and thunderstorms
into next week across the area. Strengthening southerly flow will
transport warm moisture from the Gulf into the Plains/Midwest,
which will support the potential for organized convection and
corridors of locally moderate to heavy rainfall. The combination of
large scale forcing and increasing instability along the front will
support widespread clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash
flooding over parts of Plains/Mississippi Valley. This flood
threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area in the Day 4/Sunday
Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). The system gradually tracks into
eastern U.S. by Tuesday, shifting the chances for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms over parts of Southeast and the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley. This flood threat is highlighted by a Marginal Risk area
in the Day 5/Monday Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO). Meanwhile,
as the primary low deepens and tracks from the central Plains
towards the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes early next week, a broad
region of precipitation and strong gusty winds will develop north
and west of the low/frontal system. The system will bring a mix of
enhanced stratiform rain and embedded convection.
Ahead of the front, above normal temperatures across the Southern
Plains,
Southeast, Mid- Atlantic and Great Lakes will persist ahead of the
cold front until Tuesday. Meanwhile, below average temperature
continue for much of the West and Northern/Central Plains under the
troughing through Monday. Moderate temperatures across the Central
U.S. return on Tuesday. On Tuesday, Pacific Northwest will begin
to trend slightly above average as a upper ridge moves into the
region.
Oudit
Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php
WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook,
winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key
Messages are at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw
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Forecaster's Toolbox (Prototype)
Tools Generated at WPC
These tools are NOT operationally supported. Data may not update regularly due to workstation failure and/or data unavailability.
Experimental Urban Rain Rate Dashboard (URRD)
Visualizes the probability of high rain rates that may lead to flash flooding over the next several days at over 60 major U.S. cities.
Prototype Specialized Excessive Rainfall Maps
Interface for specialized WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook Maps for NWS County Warning Areas and States.
Local Storm Reports
Custom plots of Local Storm Reports across the Contiguous United States. Reports include rain, snow, ice, and severe weather, as well as other significant information from storm spotters.
Extreme Precipitation Monitor
Displays the climatological significance of precipitation forecast by WPC. The climatological significance
is represented by Average Recurrence Intervals (ARIs) of precipitation estimates from NOAA Atlas-14 and Atlas2.
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An interactive situational awareness table that displays anomalies, percentiles, and return intervals from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF Ensembles (login required to view ECMWF data).
*Please note that there is currently an issue where only users on a NOAA network can access this page. We are actively working to resolve this problem.
NDFD Forecast Temperature Records
Interactive display of where temperatures could approach or exceed records within the contiguous U.S. (based on
NDFD temperature forecasts)
NWS NDFD Max/Min Temperatures and Departure from Normal
Displays Days 1-7 NDFD maximum and minimum temperatures, along with their respective departures from climatology.
Precipitation Object Tracking
Contains 4 different tools to track precipitation objects (heavy rain and snowfall) from short-range high-resolution deterministic and ensemble guidance.
Weather in Context Prototype
Displays forecast information and its climatological context to quickly alert a forecaster when a record or neear-record breaking
event is possible. This tool is available for both CONUS and Alaska.
Automated Forecast Low Clusters
Displays 0-72 hour cyclone forecast positions from global ensemble and deterministic model guidance.
Intense Rainfall and Flash Flood Reports
Displays flood and flash flood reports as well as intense rainfall observations for user-selectable time ranges and customizable geographic regions.
Includes ability to download reports and associated metadata in csv format.
Experimental HeatRisk
The experimental National Weather Service (NWS) HeatRisk is a color-numeric-based index that provides a forecast of the potential level of risk for heat-related impacts to occur over a 24-hour period, with forecasts available out through 7 days.
GEFS Probabilities
Plots of GEFS probabilistic forecast of precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure exceeding
various thresholds.
1/3/6/24-hr Changes
Change in weather parameters (temperature, dewpoint, surface pressure, etc) over the last 1/3/6/24 hours. Data is provided from the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) or the Rapid Refresh (RAP).
Other Favorite Forecast Tools
CIPS Guidance
Analog guidance that uses an objective approach to find historical events that
are similar to the upcoming forecast.
National Blend of Models
Nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and
non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance.
Atmospheric River Portal
A portal for atmospheric river forecasts and diagnostics from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes.
GEFS Plumes
An interactive display of time series plots from GEFS ensemble members at a point.
SPC Forecast Tools
A variety of useful tools generated at The Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
ECMWF Forecast Charts
Output from the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), including medium range deterministic,
ensemble, and machine learning model forecasts.
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