Environmental Research: Climate - IOPscience

Environmental Research: Climate - IOPscience
Purpose-led Publishing
is a coalition of three not-for-profit publishers in the field of physical sciences: AIP Publishing, the American Physical Society and IOP Publishing.
Together, as publishers that will always put purpose above profit, we have defined a set of industry standards that underpin high-quality, ethical scholarly communications.
We are proudly declaring that science is our only shareholder.
Building on the esteemed reputation of
Environmental Research Letters
, our
Environmental Research series
™ is an evolving, dynamic network of open access journals.
We empower global research communities to address the critical challenges relating to environment and sustainability, sharing knowledge and driving innovation to cultivate a brighter, greener future for all.
Find out more about publishing in the Environmental Research series
ISSN:
2752-5295
OPEN ACCESS
Environmental Research: Climate
explores the causes, consequences, and solutions of climate variability and change, by uniting research communities across the entire spectrum of the climate system.
Part of the
Environmental Research
series
Submit
an article
opens in new tab
Track my article
opens in new tab
RSS
Sign up for new issue notifications
Median submission to first decision before peer review
3 days
Median submission to first decision after peer review
67 days
Impact factor
5.4
Citescore
4.0
Full list of journal metrics
The following article is
Open access
Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Ben Clarke
et al
2022
Environ. Res.: Climate
012001
View article
, Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
PDF
, Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due to climate change developments on several levels are required. These include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
The following article is
Open access
Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
Daniel M Gilford
et al
2024
Environ. Res.: Climate
045019
View article
, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
PDF
, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
Understanding how rising global air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence tropical cyclone intensities is crucial for assessing current and future storm risks. Using observations, climate models, and potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically-warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The attribution framework employs a storyline attribution approach exploring a comprehensive set of counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused climate change—and considering atmospheric variability. These counterfactual scenarios affect the quantification and significance of attributable changes in hurricane potential and observed actual intensities since pre-industrial. A summary of attributable influences on hurricanes during five recent North Atlantic hurricane seasons (2019–2023) and a case study of Hurricane Ian (2022) reveal that human-driven SST shifts have already driven robust changes in 84% of recent observed hurricane intensities. Hurricanes during the 2019–2023 seasons were 8.3 m s
−1
faster, on average, than they would have been in a world without climate change. The attribution framework’s design and application, highlight the potential for this framework to support climate communication.
The following article is
Open access
Climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems
Ryan Guild
et al
2024
Environ. Res.: Climate
042006
View article
, Climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems
PDF
, Climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems
As the planet undergoes unprecedented climate changes, coastal ecosystems stand at the frontline of ocean-land interactions and environmental changes. This overview explores the various climate-related challenges transforming coastal ecosystems and their responses to these pressures. Key climate-related stressors—including warming, sea level rise, ocean acidification, changes to freshwater availability, and shifts in circulation and disturbance patterns—pose significant threats to both the structure and function of these ecosystems. These stressors impact every level of biological organization, with modern responses manifesting as ecosystem degradation and shifts toward simpler, less biodiverse states—trends likely to intensify with ongoing emissions. Compounded by local human disturbances, these stressors risk overwhelming the adaptive capacity of coastal ecosystems, restructuring coastal food webs, and compromising the essential ecosystem services that currently underpin productivity, storm protection, and water quality in coastal zones. Future trajectories of change in coastal ecosystems will largely depend on the extent of future greenhouse gas emissions and human activities in and around coastal zones. However, critical knowledge gaps remain, particularly regarding the interactions among stressors and the nature of ecological tipping points. Addressing these gaps through further research will be necessary to improve projections of future impacts and support the conservation and resilience of these valuable ecosystems.
The following article is
Open access
Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
Friederike E L Otto
et al
2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
025001
View article
, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
PDF
, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.
The following article is
Open access
Projected temperature and precipitation extremes over Tanzania under stratospheric SO
injection
Trisha D Patel
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
025016
View article
, Projected temperature and precipitation extremes over Tanzania under stratospheric SO2 injection
PDF
, Projected temperature and precipitation extremes over Tanzania under stratospheric SO2 injection
Tanzania is highly vulnerable to climate change, with rising temperatures and extreme precipitation threatening agriculture, water resources, human health, energy systems, mining, and nature-based tourism. This study provides a national-scale assessment of future climate extremes under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) and evaluates the potential modifying influence of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) using simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project for 2075–2095. Under RCP8.5, Tanzania is projected to experience substantial warming, with maximum and minimum temperatures rising by up to +4 °C, particularly in southern and southwestern regions. Extreme temperature indices (TNN, TXX, TX90P, WSDI) intensify across all seasons, while precipitation extremes show a southeast-to-northwest gradient, with increases during the long rains (MAM) and drying during the short rains (OND). SAI deployment is projected to mitigate some of these changes by reducing temperature increases by 1.5 °C–4 °C, with localised overcooling in parts of northeastern and coastal Tanzania. However, SAI is also projected to reverse nationwide RCP8.5 increases in annual precipitation, decreasing rainfall days by up to −0.5 d month
−1
during MAM and altering OND rainfall in spatially variable ways. These changes present mixed implications: SAI-induced cooling may alleviate heat stress on crops, livestock, human health, and ecosystems, while reductions in rainfall and increases in consecutive dry days could heighten water scarcity, reduce hydropower reliability, and exacerbate food and water insecurity. Overall, the findings highlight the complex, regionally uneven trade-offs associated with SAI, underscoring the need for cautious, context-specific evaluation of its potential risks and benefits for climate-sensitive sectors in Tanzania, and for careful interpretation of these outcomes as model- and design-dependent projections rather than deterministic predictions. Since GLENS applies SAI under the high-forcing RCP8.5 pathway, the magnitude of projected impacts and ‘mitigation’ may represent an upper-bound response relative to lower-emissions futures and alternative SAI strategies.
The following article is
Open access
When the city heats up: mapping urban heat risks through environmental and socioeconomic factors in Quezon City, Philippines
Aerol Cedrick Treyes 2025
Environ. Res.: Climate
025012
View article
, When the city heats up: mapping urban heat risks through environmental and socioeconomic factors in Quezon City, Philippines
PDF
, When the city heats up: mapping urban heat risks through environmental and socioeconomic factors in Quezon City, Philippines
While urbanization drives economic growth and development, it also intensifies urban heat, worsened by climate change and urban heat island effects, which continue to threaten public health, livability, and urban resilience in cities. This study develops and maps a localized heat risk index (HRI) for Quezon City, Philippines, integrating environmental exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability variables through a weighted framework derived using analytic hierarchy process based on expert input. Spatial analysis revealed that 81% of barangays, accounting for 70% of the city’s population, fall under high-risk HRI classification (0.61–0.80), with the highest mean HRI recorded in Barangay Manresa (0.731). High-risk areas are concentrated in the southern and southwestern zones of the city, characterized by dense urbanization, limited vegetation, and high surface temperatures. Intraurban heat islets, covering 31% of the study area, strongly overlap with high-risk HRI barangays, emphasizing the compounded effects of environmental and socioeconomic factors on heat risk. The study provides insights to complement the Quezon City Enhanced Local Climate Change Action Plan 2021–2050 by identifying priority areas for implementing nature-based solutions, such as expanding green corridors and enhancing urban biodiversity. These findings highlight the critical role of integrating vegetation, reflective surfaces, and reduced built-up densities in mitigating heat risks and improving urban resilience. The HRI framework offers a replicable model for assessing urban heat risks, supporting evidence-based policymaking, and enhancing adaptive capacity in other rapidly urbanizing cities.
The following article is
Open access
On emerging circulation patterns driving the continued rise in heavy rains across western India
K M Sumit
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
025006
View article
, On emerging circulation patterns driving the continued rise in heavy rains across western India
PDF
, On emerging circulation patterns driving the continued rise in heavy rains across western India
Over the past half-century, evolving Indian summer monsoon environment has led to an east–west asymmetric rainfall trend over the subcontinent. This emerging asymmetry is shaped by a marked rise in heavy rainfall events across western India. However, the mechanisms underlying this prominent signal of the changing regional hydroclimate are not well understood. Using self-organizing maps, this study identifies two dominant atmospheric circulation patterns linked to a significant increase in the frequency of these extreme events over western India during 1970–2022. The first pattern is marked by a large-scale mid-level cyclonic vortex spanning the subcontinent and strong easterly anomalies over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO). The pattern results from extensive synoptic low-pressure activity across central monsoon zone of India, reinforced by zonal sea surface temperature gradient at the EIO and associated dynamic forcing. In contrast, the other pattern is manifested as a localized cyclonic vortex centered over western India, featured by an isolated synoptic low-pressure system. Moisture recycling from antecedent wet soil in Northwest India catalyzes this local pattern during periods of subdued remote forcing. Our analyses link the rising frequency of heavy rains over western India to the combined effects of zonally differential warming across the EIO and progressive soil moistening in semi-arid northwest India. Examining the complex interactions among extreme weather patterns, large-scale oceanic forcings, and local land–atmosphere coupling, this study highlights the need for an improved understanding of multi-scale interactions that reshape monsoon hydrological extremes in a changing climate.
The following article is
Open access
Climate change impacts to extreme weather events associated with insured losses in New Zealand: a review
Joanna Aldridge and Rob Bell 2025
Environ. Res.: Climate
012001
View article
, Climate change impacts to extreme weather events associated with insured losses in New Zealand: a review
PDF
, Climate change impacts to extreme weather events associated with insured losses in New Zealand: a review
In 2023, New Zealand experienced two consecutive weather-related events that exceeded previous insured losses by more than a factor of ten: the Auckland Anniversary Day floods and ex-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle. Further, climate reporting for financial services becomes mandatory in this jurisdiction in 2024, yet established catastrophe models are not available for a range of perils in New Zealand. Insurers hence need to better understand weather-related catastrophes in New Zealand and the impact of climate change in this island nation exposed to strong marine influences and weather events of both tropical and temperate origin. This comprehensive review seeks to integrate and interpret the findings from a wide range of scientific literature into a cohesive summary useful for insurers evaluating climate risk in New Zealand. This review summarises the climate risk facing New Zealand, focussing on extreme events including heavy rainfall, floods, coastal hazards driven by weather systems on a range of spatiotemporal scales: atmospheric rivers, ex- and extra-tropical cyclones and severe convective storms, as well as wildfire weather. Potential changes to natural climate variability are also considered. The review shows that extreme rainfall over a range of durations, but particularly shorter durations, is projected to increase, and riverine and coastal flooding will also increase, although potential impacts are less well understood. Extreme weather systems such as ex-tropical and extra-tropical cyclones may be supported by warmer sea surface temperatures and the poleward shift in subtropical weather systems, although quantitative studies on their changing frequency and severity are not yet available. Key knowledge gaps in understanding sources of extreme rainfall, ex-tropical cyclones and other low-pressure systems and severe convective storms are identified. Further, focus areas for climate-related risk reduction that insurers could seek to promote to help protect the New Zealand community are discussed.
The following article is
Open access
Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
Edward Hanna
et al
2024
Environ. Res.: Climate
042004
View article
, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
PDF
, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
It is widely accepted that Arctic amplification (AA)—enhanced Arctic warming relative to global warming—will increasingly moderate cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) to the midlatitudes. Yet, some recent studies also argue that AA over the last three decades to the rest of the present century may contribute to more frequent severe winter weather including disruptive cold spells. To prepare society for future extremes, it is necessary to resolve whether AA and severe midlatitude winter weather are coincidental or physically linked. Severe winter weather events in the northern continents are often related to a range of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) configurations and atmospheric blocking, but these dynamical drivers are complex and still not fully understood. Here we review recent research advances and paradigms including a nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking that helps to explain the location, timing and duration of AA/midlatitude weather connections, studies of the polar vortex’s zonal asymmetric and intra-seasonal variations, its southward migration over continents, and its surface impacts. We highlight novel understanding of SPV variability—polar vortex stretching and a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation—that have remained mostly hidden in the predominant research focus on sudden stratospheric warmings. A physical explanation of the two-way vertical coupling process between the polar vortex and blocking highs, taking into account local surface conditions, remains elusive. We conclude that evidence exists for tropical preconditioning of Arctic-midlatitude climate linkages. Recent research using very large-ensemble climate modelling provides an emerging opportunity to robustly quantify internal atmospheric variability when studying the potential response of midlatitude CAOs to AA and sea-ice loss.
The following article is
Open access
Understanding past record-shattering rainfall events in New Zealand
Muhammad Fikri Sigid
et al
2025
Environ. Res.: Climate
045014
View article
, Understanding past record-shattering rainfall events in New Zealand
PDF
, Understanding past record-shattering rainfall events in New Zealand
Record-shattering rainfall events are intensifying and projected to occur more frequently in a warming climate, primarily via changes in extreme rainfall variability. However, the dominance of internal variability at local scales is recognized as a limitation in quantifying these historical extremes. New Zealand has experienced record-breaking rainfall, including Cyclone Gabrielle, which brought 300–400 mm of rain to Hawke’s Bay over less than 48 h in February 2023. Yet, it remains unclear whether these events are the most severe in New Zealand’s recorded history and whether locally extreme rainfall events are now occurring more frequently. Using daily rainfall data from 307 long-running weather stations (>70 years), we examine long-term trends in extreme rainfall and assess the relative severity of past events across New Zealand. To circumvent known challenges in fitting extreme value distributions to quantify the rarity of past events, we instead convert annual maximum rainfall values at each station to a normalized anomaly (
) which adjusts for both the mean and year-to-year variations in extreme rainfall, thereby enabling a comparison between stations in different rainfall regimes. Our results yield no clear historical trend in the frequency of extreme daily rainfall events nationwide. A high number of events were recorded during the twenty years spanning 1921–1940, potentially reflecting decadal variability. Based on our methodology, the most extreme rainfall event occurred in May 1923, delivering over 600 mm in two days to the South Island’s east coast (
> 10). Other record-shattering rainfall events which have since been followed by modest extremes include the February 1971 floods in Taranaki and the January 1984 event in Invercargill, while the King Country and Central Otago regions showed statistically modest rainfall extremes throughout the observational record.
The following article is
Open access
An examination of Texas relative extreme heatwave events during summer 2023
Joshua M Gilliland and Paige R Looper 2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
025023
View article
, An examination of Texas relative extreme heatwave events during summer 2023
PDF
, An examination of Texas relative extreme heatwave events during summer 2023
This study examines the relative extreme heatwave events (REHEs) observed in Texas through
in-situ
and reanalysis data during summer 2023. The results show the highest (lowest) frequency of days is predominately focused eastward (westward) of the Edwards Plateau. However, when employing a relative definition, two spatial hotspots are classified for the Texas metropolitans of Houston and Midland–Odessa. These frequency maximums are a result of four prolonged Texas REHEs determined during the summer of 2023. A soil moisture-temperature coupling analysis is completed to examine the relationship of each event and their near-surface conditions. Additionally, a synoptic analysis is performed for three mandatory atmospheric pressure levels (850, 700, and 500 hPa) in order to demonstrate how large-scale tropospheric variables (wind, temperature, geopotential height, and vertical velocity) contributed to each Texas REHE. From these findings, it can provide a foundation on relative extreme heatwave conditions and how state and federal agencies can better prepare for such future episodes in Texas.
The following article is
Open access
Future thermal environment in Japan using large ensemble climate dataset d4PDF—Can we hold outdoor activities at global 4 °C warming?
Ko Nakajima
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
025022
View article
, Future thermal environment in Japan using large ensemble climate dataset d4PDF—Can we hold outdoor activities at global 4 °C warming?
PDF
, Future thermal environment in Japan using large ensemble climate dataset d4PDF—Can we hold outdoor activities at global 4 °C warming?
Recent extreme heat events are threatening outdoor human activities, and a robust understanding of the future thermal environment at the city-scale is becoming increasingly essential as global warming progresses. This study analyzed bias-corrected wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) values derived from a 5 km high-resolution large ensemble climate dataset, enabling robust estimation of extreme events without the need for extreme value theory, and investigated future extreme thermal environments in Japan. Under historical conditions (Hist) (1981–2010), the monthly mean daily maximum WBGT (
Ave
) exceeded 28 °C in the southern part of Japan, which is in the temperate zone. In the simulation of the globally 4 K-warmer future climate relative to the preindustrial period (GW4K), the thermal environment becomes increasingly severe:
Ave
exceeded 33 °C, which is the threshold indicating high heatstroke risk. Under GW4K, the thermal environment in the subarctic zone was comparable to that of the temperate zone under Hist. In August under GW4K, more than half of the days were classified as having a thermal environment where heavy exercise was prohibited, even at night. Consequently, engaging in outdoor activities will be risky in the future climate. Similarly severe conditions were observed in July and September. Moreover, the thermal environment in June under GW4K was comparable to that in August under Hist. The findings provide valuable insights into the need for public heat stress measures and personal adaptation to future global warming.
The following article is
Open access
Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
Lorenzo Villani
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
022001
View article
, Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
PDF
, Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
The impact of climate change on droughts is typically attributed to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Yet, most drought projections overlook a major climate-induced mechanism: the effect of elevated CO₂ on plant physiology, leading to a significant potential overestimation of droughts magnitudes and impacts. In fact, elevated CO₂ enhances biomass production and reduces stomatal conductance, thereby increasing water-use efficiency. Our systematic review reveals that nearly 90% of evapotranspiration-based drought projections omit CO₂-driven vegetation feedback, and only 10% acknowledge this limitation. Neglecting vegetation response to CO
can overestimate future drought-affected areas by up to 17.4% ± 10.6% under high-emissions scenarios (CO₂ > 900 ppm), and in some regions even reverse the projected direction of change. This widespread oversight can hamper the robustness of global drought projections. Accounting for vegetation–CO₂ interactions is therefore crucial to avoid systematic bias and produce reliable predictions of water availability in a warming world.
The following article is
Open access
Wind power growth drives winter risk and supply-dominated variability in Australia’s energy system
Doug Richardson
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
025021
View article
, Wind power growth drives winter risk and supply-dominated variability in Australia’s energy system
PDF
, Wind power growth drives winter risk and supply-dominated variability in Australia’s energy system
Achieving Australia’s net zero commitments will require large increases in the amount of electricity generated from renewables. As wind and solar facilities are built, Australia’s power systems will become more dependent on weather and hence exposed to weather variability. Understanding this variability is necessary for managing power systems, but most research has focused on just one aspect of the energy system (either demand, or one or more types of generation). Using reanalysis weather data, we develop an 84 year climatology of monthly utility-scale wind energy, solar energy and operational electricity demand across Australia’s largest power system. We quantify the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of energy supply and demand, and explore changes to these characteristics by simulating a plausible highly-renewable future power system. We find that the planned rollout of renewables outpaces projected increases in demand, and by 2030 the seasonal cycle will switch from being driven by demand variability to wind power variability. As renewables, especially wind, are deployed across the grid, winter emerges clearly as the season with the greatest variability and hence potential for unmet demand. We show changes in the correlation (between −0.3 and +0.3) between each regions’ generation and demand can arise purely as a result of varying levels of additional generation capacity. This work builds on our understanding of the current and changing nature of multidecadal variability of energy demand and renewables generation across Australia’s main power system, providing a foundation that will help to design the future grid to minimise the impacts of high resource variability.
The following article is
Open access
Dynamics and future projections of Indian forest carbon stocks under different emission pathways using CMIP6 and LPJ-GUESS
Fathima J Fitha
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
025019
View article
, Dynamics and future projections of Indian forest carbon stocks under different emission pathways using CMIP6 and LPJ-GUESS
PDF
, Dynamics and future projections of Indian forest carbon stocks under different emission pathways using CMIP6 and LPJ-GUESS
Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, acting as major carbon sinks, though their capacity can be altered by climate and land use changes. India has a diverse forest ecosystem, but the dynamics and changes in its carbon stocks under a changing climate are not well understood. This study investigates the regional and temporal changes in vegetation carbon biomass (VCB) within Indian forests by assessing changes across the recent past (1960–2020), near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100) using the LPJ-GUESS Ver.4.1.1 dynamic global vegetation model, forced with climate data from CMIP6 future climate projection. Our results indicate an overall rise in carbon stock across India’s forests leading to a 35%, 62%, and 97% rise by 2100, under low, medium and high emissions, with the scenario trajectories diverging clearly by 2050. Desert and semi-arid regions have a substantial increase in forest VCB under high emissions, followed by the Trans-Himalaya, Gangetic Plain, Deccan Peninsula, and Northeast India in the long term (2081–2100), compared with historical simulations. Meanwhile, the Himalayas and Western Ghats have a comparatively lower increase. VCB trends are positively associated with temperature and precipitation, intensifying after 2040. Climate sensitivity and Granger causality analyses highlight that precipitation variability has a stronger national-scale impact on VCB, while temperature effects vary by region. The precipitation influence typically lags by ∼2 years under low-medium emissions and by ∼4 years under high emissions, while temperature shows a more consistent ∼2 year lag. This study underscores the need for regionally tailored climate strategies and offers insights to guide future climate action, mitigation planning, and environmental sustainability.
The following article is
Open access
Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
Lorenzo Villani
et al
2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
022001
View article
, Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
PDF
, Neglecting plant physiology: systematic overestimation of drought projections
The impact of climate change on droughts is typically attributed to rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. Yet, most drought projections overlook a major climate-induced mechanism: the effect of elevated CO₂ on plant physiology, leading to a significant potential overestimation of droughts magnitudes and impacts. In fact, elevated CO₂ enhances biomass production and reduces stomatal conductance, thereby increasing water-use efficiency. Our systematic review reveals that nearly 90% of evapotranspiration-based drought projections omit CO₂-driven vegetation feedback, and only 10% acknowledge this limitation. Neglecting vegetation response to CO
can overestimate future drought-affected areas by up to 17.4% ± 10.6% under high-emissions scenarios (CO₂ > 900 ppm), and in some regions even reverse the projected direction of change. This widespread oversight can hamper the robustness of global drought projections. Accounting for vegetation–CO₂ interactions is therefore crucial to avoid systematic bias and produce reliable predictions of water availability in a warming world.
The following article is
Open access
Challenges of modelling climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources: AI is the game changer—a review
Charles Onyutha 2026
Environ. Res.: Climate
012001
View article
, Challenges of modelling climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources: AI is the game changer—a review
PDF
, Challenges of modelling climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources: AI is the game changer—a review
There has been remarkable progress over the past 20 years to support hydrological analysis in climate change context. This study reviewed literature to identify key challenges and provide information for improving understanding of areas that entail knowledge gaps. The challenges are of both traditional and emerging nature. Some identified challenges include complexity in climate modelling, issues of downscaling, choosing fixed or flexible modelling approach, complexity in hydrological modelling, uncertainties in hydrological and climate models, and hydrological analysis in data-scarce catchments. Prominently, there is a notable shift towards the application of artificial intelligence (AI) for tackling these challenges. For instance, the integration of data assimilation and AI is a promising advance for regional analysis of climate change impacts. However, the increasing integration of AI in hydrology aggravates the challenge of ‘black box problem’ in which a modeller has no clue on relationships used to derive outputs from the given inputs. To tackle this, revolutionizing and adopting explainable AI in hydrology is imperative. Model complexity control is a vital procedure to encompass the systematic balance of intricacy with both quality and quantity of available model inputs. Additionally, the choice of a model amid the required flexibility and complexity should be linked to the overall cost and benefits based on the object of the analysis. Finally, to comprehensively identify, characterize, quantify and communicate uncertainties to stakeholders, uncertainty analysis should be integrated with management decision making. This requires recognition of the need for science-policy interfacing tailored for planning climate change adaptation measures.
The following article is
Open access
Analysing the development of the climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling framework: a state-of-the-art review
Kane Alexander
et al
2025
Environ. Res.: Climate
032001
View article
, Analysing the development of the climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling framework: a state-of-the-art review
PDF
, Analysing the development of the climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling framework: a state-of-the-art review
This comprehensive state-of-the-art literature review explores recent scientific developments in climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling by systematically analysing 41 peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024. This research uncovered insights into the evolving interdisciplinary landscape, revealing various trends, such as approximately 74% of studies publishing their data as open-access and 50% employing an open-source analytical tool, or tools, in combination with open-access data. This study identified four areas of significance: (1) the connections between CLEWs and the sustainable development goals, (2) how the CLEWs framework is linked to capacity development, (3) the critical interplay between energy and water systems, and (4) the transformative potential for comprehensive system integration using the CLEWs modelling framework. By pinpointing promising research directions such as soft-linking CLEWs models with geographic information systems, applying robust decision making methodologies, adapting the CLEWs framework to the city level, and highlighting the need to assess real world impact of CLEWs research, the review provides a strategic roadmap for future interdisciplinary research. Notably, the analysis emphasised the urgent need for enhanced institutional coordination and collaborative communities of practice, particularly for open-source modelling tools like the open-source energy modelling system, to further accelerate knowledge dissemination and foster innovative, integrated approaches to complex systemic challenges.
The following article is
Open access
Granger causal inference for climate change attribution
Mark D Risser
et al
2025
Environ. Res.: Climate
022001
View article
, Granger causal inference for climate change attribution
PDF
, Granger causal inference for climate change attribution
Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.
The following article is
Open access
Toward a process-oriented understanding of water in the climate system: recent insights from stable isotopes
Adriana Bailey
et al
2025
Environ. Res.: Climate
012002
View article
, Toward a process-oriented understanding of water in the climate system: recent insights from stable isotopes
PDF
, Toward a process-oriented understanding of water in the climate system: recent insights from stable isotopes
Describing the processes that regulate the flows and exchanges of water within the atmosphere and between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface is critical for understanding environmental change and predicting Earth’s future accurately. The heavy-to-light hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of water provide a useful lens through which to evaluate these processes due to their innate sensitivity to evaporation, condensation, and mixing. In this review, we examine how isotopic information advances our understanding about the origin and transport history of moisture in the atmosphere and about convective processes—including cloud mixing and detrainment, precipitation formation, and rain evaporation. Moreover, we discuss how isotopic data can be used to benchmark numerical simulations across a range of scales and improve predictive skill through data assimilation techniques. This synthesis of work illustrates that, when paired with air mass thermodynamic properties that are commonly measured and modeled (such as specific humidity and temperature), water’s isotope ratios help shed light on moist processes that help set the climate state.
The following article is
Open access
Operationalising heat vulnerability mapping: analysing nine approaches in Barcelona
Pickard et al
View accepted manuscript
, Operationalising heat vulnerability mapping: analysing nine approaches in Barcelona
PDF
, Operationalising heat vulnerability mapping: analysing nine approaches in Barcelona
Cities are complex entities where building climate resilience depends on and impacts many other social and environmental aspects. One challenge is how to consider the population’s vulnerability to climate stressors. Here, social factors, local environmental amenities and existing adaptation measures can dictate the potential harm from exposure to hazards. Although such links are individually well acknowledged, less is understood about how these different factors are combined when carrying out vulnerability mapping as part of urban climate adaptation. For example, how are different knowledge disciplines brought together to understand vulnerability, how is this information presented, and how is it linked to the implementation of mitigating interventions? We investigate these questions for the quantitative mapping of vulnerability to heat in Barcelona, Spain, by comparing nine different vulnerability indices mapped by respected local institutions. We interrogate what is meant by vulnerability, the data and calculations used to compute the index values, and the presentation of results. We find significant variance in how vulnerability is defined (if at all), the data and calculations employed, and how results are presented. Conscious of the comparative challenges that arise from mappings’ idiosyncrasies, an indicative neighbourhood-level analysis reveals some clusters of vulnerability but relatively weak agreement across the ensemble. There are substantial justice concerns given the variability in vulnerability depending on the index chosen. Mappings appear strongly shaped by the actors and societal contexts that produce them and have not yet assimilated key themes such as multiple, dynamic or intersectional vulnerabilities. After highlighting gaps and presenting associated recommendations, we conclude by arguing that quantitative mapping should be reframed as an initial tool in a collective, transdisciplinary and ongoing process of exploring vulnerability rather than a single, static and analytical output and suggest the idea of a climate vulnerability observatory to facilitate this.
The following article is
Open access
Multivariate bias correction of ERA5 using in-situ observations for planning and engineering
Rasmussen
View accepted manuscript
, Multivariate bias correction of ERA5 using in-situ observations for planning and engineering
PDF
, Multivariate bias correction of ERA5 using in-situ observations for planning and engineering
Climate risk analyses for infrastructure and energy systems typically require a point-based frame of reference. However, the surface weather data informing these decisions often originate from gridded reanalysis products like ERA5, which represent area-averaged estimates rather than conditions at specific point locations. This representativeness discrepancy, alongside structural modeling errors and data assimilation biases, can lead to systematic discrepancies in the representation of both mean climate and extremes, reducing the utility of gridded data for applications demanding local accuracy. To bridge this gap, I developed SCOPE-ERA5 (Station-Calibrated Outputs for Planning & Engineering), a post-processed daily dataset spanning 1979-2024 at 7,115 global weather stations. Using the Multivariate Bias Correction in N-dimensions algorithm trained on in-situ observations (MBCn; Cannon, 2018), I adjusted both marginal distributions and inter-variable dependencies to produce physically consistent time series of daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature; relative humidity; 10 m surface wind speed; and surface pressure. The adjustment eliminates mean bias across all stations and reduces Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) at 52-96% of sites, with the most significant improvements observed for wind speed. Out-of-sample testing suggests the transfer function is temporally robust, with only modest performance degradation outside the training period. Compared to raw ERA5, SCOPE-ERA5 provides a higher-fidelity representation of local near-surface conditions and serves as a temporally complete alternative to fragmented station records. It is well-suited for applications requiring long, multivariate climate time series, such as infrastructure design, energy system modeling, and climate model bias adjustment.
The following article is
Open access
AMOC weakening in response to global and regional reductions in aerosol emissions
Allen et al
View accepted manuscript
, AMOC weakening in response to global and regional reductions in aerosol emissions
PDF
, AMOC weakening in response to global and regional reductions in aerosol emissions
In response to continued greenhouse gas (GHG) increases, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken through the 21st century. However, AMOC impacts associated with efforts to improve air quality are less well understood. Here, eight models from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) are examined to quantify mid-21st century AMOC changes resulting from global and regional anthropogenic aerosol and precursor gas (AA) emissions reductions (industrial and biomass burning), by comparing strong air pollution control (SSP1-2.6) to a baseline with weak air pollution control (SSP3-7.0). Global AA reductions and subsequent warming yield multi-model mean AMOC weakening of 6% (-0.98 +/- 0.40 Sv; 1 Sv = 10^6 m^3/s) by the last 12 years of the simulation (2039-2050). This is ⅓ of the magnitude of the corresponding weakening associated with the high GHG emissions scenario SSP3-7.0. Of the regional perturbations, combined North American and European AA reductions drive the largest AMOC weakening, followed by combined African and Middle Eastern reductions and then East Asian reductions, with South Asian reductions yielding non-significant weakening. Across these experiments, AMOC weakening is significantly correlated with the North Atlantic Ocean aerosol effective radiative forcing (r=-0.95) and aerosol optical depth response (r=1.0). AMOC weakening under AA reductions is associated with a thermally driven reduction in buoyancy in the subpolar North Atlantic, which is largely driven by surface shortwave radiation increases, consistent with the forcing from AA reductions. Africa+Middle East AA reductions also involve excitation of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern, which contributes to AMOC weakening. Our results show that efforts to improve air quality, particularly around the Atlantic basin but also far away in East Asia, will contribute to future AMOC weakening.
The following article is
Open access
Doubled Saharan dust emissions decrease solar photovoltaic potential through dust-radiation-cloud interactions in CMIP6 simulation
Adigun et al
View accepted manuscript
, Doubled Saharan dust emissions decrease solar photovoltaic potential through dust-radiation-cloud interactions in CMIP6 simulation
PDF
, Doubled Saharan dust emissions decrease solar photovoltaic potential through dust-radiation-cloud interactions in CMIP6 simulation
This study presents a quantitative assessment of how doubled Saharan dust emissions alter solar photovoltaic potential (PVP) across Africa, utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Under a 2xdust scenario, annual PVP reductions of 5–10% were observed in highly affected regions like the Sahara and Sahel, driven by significant decreases in surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDS) of up to 20 W/m². Our analysis systematically separates direct dust radiative forcing from indirect cloud-mediated effects, demonstrating that aerosol-cloud interactions amplify solar energy losses beyond direct scattering alone. Regional classification reveals arid Sahara regions show PVP decreases (-2.81% ± 1.73%) primarily through direct radiative attenuation, whereas humid Sahel regions experience nearly doubled losses (-4.85% ± 3.70%) where dust enhances cloud formation. Seasonal analysis revealed peak PVP losses during spring and summer, with reductions exceeding 6% in localized areas, coinciding with maximum dust optical depth (DOD) increases of 0.3–0.5. The multi-model ensemble demonstrated a strong correlation (R² = 0.72) between PVP losses and DOD, highlighting the critical role of atmospheric dust in attenuating solar radiation. However, the relationship between dust emissions and PVP loss is non-linear, reflecting complex interactions involving particle size distribution, transport, and deposition. Temperature changes due to dust-induced cooling averaged -0.5°C across the Sahara-Sahel, partially offsetting PV cell temperature effects, but insufficient to counteract RSDS reductions. Models treating dust as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) predicted higher RSDS reductions (-5.1 W/m²) compared to non-CCN models (-4.1 W/m²), emphasizing the importance of aerosol-cloud interactions. Policymakers must consider dust effects when planning African solar energy investments.
Trending on Altmetric
The following article is
Open access
Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Ben Clarke
et al
2022
Environ. Res.: Climate
012001
View article
, Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
PDF
, Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due to climate change developments on several levels are required. These include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
The following article is
Open access
Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
Friederike E L Otto
et al
2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
025001
View article
, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
PDF
, Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan
As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate change in this event. Many of the available state-of-the-art climate models struggle to simulate these rainfall characteristics. Those that pass our evaluation test generally show a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall than the trend we found in the observations. This discrepancy suggests that long-term variability, or processes that our evaluation may not capture, can play an important role, rendering it infeasible to quantify the overall role of human-induced climate change. However, the majority of models and observations we have analysed show that intense rainfall has become heavier as Pakistan has warmed. Some of these models suggest climate change could have increased the rainfall intensity up to 50%. The devastating impacts were also driven by the proximity of human settlements, infrastructure (homes, buildings, bridges), and agricultural land to flood plains, inadequate infrastructure, limited ex-ante risk reduction capacity, an outdated river management system, underlying vulnerabilities driven by high poverty rates and socioeconomic factors (e.g. gender, age, income, and education), and ongoing political and economic instability. Both current conditions and the potential further increase in extreme peaks in rainfall over Pakistan in light of anthropogenic climate change, highlight the urgent need to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather in Pakistan.
The following article is
Open access
Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Flavio Lehner and Clara Deser 2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
023001
View article
, Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
PDF
, Origin, importance, and predictive limits of internal climate variability
Adaptation to climate change has now become a necessity for many regions. Yet, adaptation planning at regional scales over the next few decades is challenging given the contingencies originating from a combination of different sources of climate projection uncertainty, chief among them internal variability. Here, we review the causes and consequences of internal climate variability, how it can be quantified and accounted for in uncertainty assessments, and what research questions remain most pertinent to better understand its predictive limits and consequences for science and society. This perspective argues for putting internal variability into the spotlight of climate adaptation science and intensifying collaborations between the climate modeling and application communities.
The following article is
Open access
Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers
Sylvia Dee
et al
2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
022002
View article
, Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers
PDF
, Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers
The hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. We highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill and offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research. Finally, we highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.
The following article is
Open access
Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts
Mariam Zachariah
et al
2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
045005
View article
, Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts
PDF
, Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts
In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.
The following article is
Open access
Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
Edward Hanna
et al
2024
Environ. Res.: Climate
042004
View article
, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
PDF
, Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming
It is widely accepted that Arctic amplification (AA)—enhanced Arctic warming relative to global warming—will increasingly moderate cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) to the midlatitudes. Yet, some recent studies also argue that AA over the last three decades to the rest of the present century may contribute to more frequent severe winter weather including disruptive cold spells. To prepare society for future extremes, it is necessary to resolve whether AA and severe midlatitude winter weather are coincidental or physically linked. Severe winter weather events in the northern continents are often related to a range of stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) configurations and atmospheric blocking, but these dynamical drivers are complex and still not fully understood. Here we review recent research advances and paradigms including a nonlinear theory of atmospheric blocking that helps to explain the location, timing and duration of AA/midlatitude weather connections, studies of the polar vortex’s zonal asymmetric and intra-seasonal variations, its southward migration over continents, and its surface impacts. We highlight novel understanding of SPV variability—polar vortex stretching and a stratosphere–troposphere oscillation—that have remained mostly hidden in the predominant research focus on sudden stratospheric warmings. A physical explanation of the two-way vertical coupling process between the polar vortex and blocking highs, taking into account local surface conditions, remains elusive. We conclude that evidence exists for tropical preconditioning of Arctic-midlatitude climate linkages. Recent research using very large-ensemble climate modelling provides an emerging opportunity to robustly quantify internal atmospheric variability when studying the potential response of midlatitude CAOs to AA and sea-ice loss.
The following article is
Open access
A roadmap to achieve the global methane pledge
Christopher S Malley
et al
2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
011003
View article
, A roadmap to achieve the global methane pledge
PDF
, A roadmap to achieve the global methane pledge
The Global Methane Pledge (GMP), launched in 2021 and signed by 149 countries and the European Union, aims to reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions by 30% in 2030 compared to 2020 levels. However, the GMP does not specify the contribution of countries or methane-emitting sectors (fossil fuel production, agriculture and waste) to achieve this global goal. Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) describe countries’ climate change commitments, and 86% of countries include methane within the scope of these targets. This paper aims to assess whether a roadmap (i.e. a set of mitigation actions) to achieve the GMP can be developed from those methane-targeted mitigation actions included within NDCs. The 476 methane-focussed mitigation actions within the 168 NDCs analysed are targeted in countries and sectors emitting approximately 40% of global methane. These mitigation actions are not specified in NDCs with implementation targets and timelines that are currently collectively sufficient to achieve the GMP goal. However, if all 476 mitigation actions are implemented to their maximum technical mitigation potential, their implementation could reduce global emissions by ∼31%. Therefore, mitigation actions in NDCs could achieve the GMP goal, but only if implemented to their fullest possible extent. There are also multiple opportunities to increase methane mitigation ambition further. Additional commitments to implement technical methane mitigation measures could lead to mitigation in excess of the GMP goal. Behavioural measures, such as dietary shifts and reduction in waste generation could further reduce methane, and are included in few NDCs currently.
The following article is
Open access
Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
Toyin Adekanmbi
et al
2024
Environ. Res.: Climate
012001
View article
, Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
PDF
, Climate change impacts on global potato yields: a review
Potatoes as a food crop contribute to zero hunger: Sustainable Development Goal 2. Over the years, the global potato supply has increased by more than double consumption. Changing climatic conditions are a significant determinant of crop growth and development due to the impacts of meteorological conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, on yields, placing nations under the threat of food insecurity. Potatoes are prone to climatic variables such as heat, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO
), droughts, and unexpected frosts. A crop simulation model (CSM) is useful for assessing the effects of climate and various cultivation environments on potato growth and yields. This article aims to review recent literature on known and potential effects of climate change on global potato yields and further highlights tools and methods for assessing those effects. In particular, this review will explore (1) global potato production, growth and varieties; (2) a review of the mechanisms by which changing climates impact potato yields; (3) a review of CSMs as tools for assessing the impacts of climate change on potato yields, and (4) most importantly, this review identifies critical gaps in data availability, modeling tools, and adaptation measures, that lays a foundation for future research toward sustainable potato production under the changing climate.
The following article is
Open access
Potential impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in South Africa
Trisha D Patel
et al
2023
Environ. Res.: Climate
035004
View article
, Potential impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in South Africa
PDF
, Potential impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in South Africa
Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is the theoretical deployment of sulphate particles into the stratosphere to reflect incoming solar radiation and trigger a cooling impact at the Earth’s surface. This study assessed the potential impact of SAI geoengineering on temperature and precipitation extremes over South Africa (SAF) and its climatic zones in the future (2075–2095) using simulations from the Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) project. We analyse three different experiments from the GLENS project, each of which simulate stratospheric SO
injection under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions scenario: (i) tropical injection around 22.8–25 km altitude (GLENS), (ii) tropical injection around 1 km above the tropopause (GLENS_low), and (iii) injection near the equator around 20–25 km (GLENS_eq). The study used a set of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices describing temperature and rainfall extremes to assess the impact of the three SAI experiments on extreme weather in the future over SAF. The results of this study indicate that, relative to the baseline period (2010–2030), all three SAI experiments are mostly over-effective in offsetting the projected RCP8.5 increase in the frequency of hot (up to −60%) and decrease (up to +10%) in cold temperature extremes over SAF and its climatic zones. These findings suggest that SAI could cause over-cooling in SAF. However, SAI impact on precipitation extremes is less linear and varies across the country’s climatic zones. For example, SAI could reinforce the projected decrease in precipitation extremes across most of SAF, although it could exacerbate heavy precipitation over the KwaZulu-Natal Coast. These findings are consistent across SAI experiments except in magnitude, as GLENS_eq and GLENS_low could cause larger decreases in precipitation extremes than GLENS. These findings imply that SAI could alleviate heat stress on human health, agriculture, and vulnerable communities while simultaneously decreasing infrastructure and crops’ vulnerability to flooding. It is, however, essential to interpret these findings cautiously as they are specific to the SAI experiments and modelling settings considered in the GLENS project.
The following article is
Open access
Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
Daniel M Gilford
et al
2024
Environ. Res.: Climate
045019
View article
, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
PDF
, Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes
Understanding how rising global air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence tropical cyclone intensities is crucial for assessing current and future storm risks. Using observations, climate models, and potential intensity theory, this study introduces a novel rapid attribution framework that quantifies the impact of historically-warming North Atlantic SSTs on observed hurricane maximum wind speeds. The attribution framework employs a storyline attribution approach exploring a comprehensive set of counterfactuals scenarios—estimates characterizing historical SST shifts due to human-caused climate change—and considering atmospheric variability. These counterfactual scenarios affect the quantification and significance of attributable changes in hurricane potential and observed actual intensities since pre-industrial. A summary of attributable influences on hurricanes during five recent North Atlantic hurricane seasons (2019–2023) and a case study of Hurricane Ian (2022) reveal that human-driven SST shifts have already driven robust changes in 84% of recent observed hurricane intensities. Hurricanes during the 2019–2023 seasons were 8.3 m s
−1
faster, on average, than they would have been in a world without climate change. The attribution framework’s design and application, highlight the potential for this framework to support climate communication.
Journal links
Submit an article
About the journal
Editorial Board
Author guidelines
Review for this journal
Publication charges
Awards
Journal collections
Environmental Publications
Environmental Research Communications
Environmental Research Letters
Environmental Research: Climate
Environmental Research: Ecology
Environmental Research: Energy
Environmental Research: Food Systems
Environmental Research: Health
Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability
Environmental Research: Water
Journal information
2022-present
Environmental Research: Climate
doi: 10.1088/issn.2752-5295
Online ISSN: 2752-5295