Environmental Research Letters - IOPscience

Environmental Research Letters - IOPscience
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ISSN:
1748-9326
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Environmental Research Letters
, the flagship journal of the
Environmental Research series
, is committed to the rapid publication of concise, timely, impactful, interdisciplinary research that demands urgent attention by policymakers and global scientific communities.
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The following article is
Open access
Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity
Corey J A Bradshaw
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
064023
View article
, Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity
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, Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity
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, Global human population has surpassed Earth’s sustainable carrying capacity
The ecological concept of human carrying capacity is necessarily complicated because human beings are the ‘ultimate ecosystem engineers’ who moderate the environment for their benefit. For at least the last few hundred years, human ingenuity, access to massive stocks of fossil fuels, and technological development have driven facilitation whereby increasing human abundance has promoted higher population growth rates. However, this positive relationship broke down during the 1950s, and by 1962, the global human population entered a phase where the growth rate consistently declined as population increased. The onset of this negative phase occurred 8 years before a global biocapacity deficit began in 1970. The onset of the negative phase also varies regionally, with the lowest-income and highest fertility regions entering this phase later than higher-income regions. A Ricker logistic model fitted to the negative phase predicts that the global population could reach 11.7–12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076. The same model fitted to the facilitation phase predicts a maximum population of 2.5 billion people that Earth might be able to maintain. The negative phase also correlates strongly with the trend in global temperature anomaly, ecological footprint, and total emissions, with more of their variation explained by increasing population size rather than increasing per-capita consumption. The Earth cannot sustain the future human population, or even today’s, without a major overhaul of socio-cultural practices for using land, water, energy, biodiversity, and other resources.
The following article is
Open access
Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections
Sybren Drijfhout
et al
2025
Environ. Res. Lett.
20
094062
View article
, Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections
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, Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections
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, Shutdown of northern Atlantic overturning after 2100 following deep mixing collapse in CMIP6 projections
Several, more recent global warming projections in the coupled model intercomparison project 6 contain extensions beyond year 2100–2300/2500. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in these projections shows transitions to extremely weak overturning below the surface mixed layer (<6 Sv; 1 Sv = 10
−1
) in all models forced by a high-emission (SSP585) scenario and sometimes also forced by an intermediate- (SSP245) and low-emission (SSP126) scenario. These extremely weak overturning states are characterised by a shallow maximum overturning at depths less than 200 m and a shutdown of the circulation associated with North Atlantic deep water formation. Northward Atlantic heat transport at 26°N decreases to 20%–40% of the current observed value. Heat release to the atmosphere north of 45°N weakens to less than 20% of its present-day value and in some models completely vanishes, leading to strong cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic and Northwest Europe. In all cases, these transitions to a weak and shallow AMOC are preceded by a mid-21st century collapse of maximum mixed-layer depth in Labrador, Irminger and Nordic Seas. The convection collapse is mainly caused by surface freshening from a decrease in northward salt advection due to the weakening AMOC but is likely initiated by surface warming. Maximum mixed-layer depths in the observations are still dominated by internal variability but notably feature downward trends over the last 5–10 years in all deep mixing regions for all data products analysed. This could be merely variability but is also consistent with the model-predicted decline of deep mixing.
The following article is
Open access
The environmental footprint of data centers in the United States
Md Abu Bakar Siddik
et al
2021
Environ. Res. Lett.
16
064017
View article
, The environmental footprint of data centers in the United States
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, The environmental footprint of data centers in the United States
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, The environmental footprint of data centers in the United States
Much of the world’s data are stored, managed, and distributed by data centers. Data centers require a tremendous amount of energy to operate, accounting for around 1.8% of electricity use in the United States. Large amounts of water are also required to operate data centers, both directly for liquid cooling and indirectly to produce electricity. For the first time, we calculate spatially-detailed carbon and water footprints of data centers operating within the United States, which is home to around one-quarter of all data center servers globally. Our bottom-up approach reveals one-fifth of data center servers direct water footprint comes from moderately to highly water stressed watersheds, while nearly half of servers are fully or partially powered by power plants located within water stressed regions. Approximately 0.5% of total US greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to data centers. We investigate tradeoffs and synergies between data center’s water and energy utilization by strategically locating data centers in areas of the country that will minimize one or more environmental footprints. Our study quantifies the environmental implications behind our data creation and storage and shows a path to decrease the environmental footprint of our increasing digital footprint.
The following article is
Open access
Summers over land and ocean are becoming longer, transitioning faster, and accumulating more heat
Ted J Scott
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
074009
View article
, Summers over land and ocean are becoming longer, transitioning faster, and accumulating more heat
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, Summers over land and ocean are becoming longer, transitioning faster, and accumulating more heat
ePub
, Summers over land and ocean are becoming longer, transitioning faster, and accumulating more heat
The timing and length of summer weather conditions in the midlatitudes matter due to connections with extreme weather events, plant and animal phenology, economic productivity, human and ecosystem health, drought and wildfire, and energy demand. Here, we show that midlatitude summers are growing longer and hotter, and that seasonal transitions are becoming more abrupt, relative to the 1961–1990 period. From 1990–2023, mean summer length has increased by 5–7 d decade
−1
across inland areas, and similarly for coastal margins and oceans in the midlatitudes, with length generally expanding symmetrically. This rate is faster than the ∼4 d decade
−1
reported in prior works for midlatitude land through 2012. The speed of summer seasonal transitions is also increasing, with temperatures changing more rapidly at both the onset and withdrawal of summer. Accumulated heat, or cumulative summer heat stress, is growing at 44 °C d decade
−1
since 1990 for Northern Hemisphere land, more than three times as fast as the 14 °C d decade
−1
increase from 1961 to 1990. This increase in accumulated summer heat may challenge the ability of humans in the midlatitudes to physiologically adapt and will likely increase the energy expended for daytime and nighttime cooling. We provide theoretical explanations for the increase in seasonal transition speed and non-linear growth of accumulated heat in response to warming. Finally, we highlight changes for ten urban areas around the globe, with summer lengthening in some, such as Sydney and Minneapolis, by more than one day per year.
The following article is
Open access
Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
Mark Lynas
et al
2021
Environ. Res. Lett.
16
114005
View article
, Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
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, Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
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, Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
While controls over the Earth’s climate system have undergone rigorous hypothesis-testing since the 1800s, questions over the scientific consensus of the role of human activities in modern climate change continue to arise in public settings. We update previous efforts to quantify the scientific consensus on climate change by searching the recent literature for papers sceptical of anthropogenic-caused global warming. From a dataset of 88125 climate-related papers published since 2012, when this question was last addressed comprehensively, we examine a randomized subset of 3000 such publications. We also use a second sample-weighted approach that was specifically biased with keywords to help identify any sceptical peer-reviewed papers in the whole dataset. We identify four sceptical papers out of the sub-set of 3000, as evidenced by abstracts that were rated as implicitly or explicitly sceptical of human-caused global warming. In our sample utilizing pre-identified sceptical keywords we found 28 papers that were implicitly or explicitly sceptical. We conclude with high statistical confidence that the scientific consensus on human-caused contemporary climate change—expressed as a proportion of the total publications—exceeds 99% in the peer reviewed scientific literature.
The following article is
Open access
Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
John Cook
et al
2013
Environ. Res. Lett.
024024
View article
, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
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, Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature
We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming
(AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts
from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We
find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7%
rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among
abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that
humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited
authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage
of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers
expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings
and authors’ self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a
position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the
number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of
the published research.
The following article is
Open access
Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States
Jared A Balik
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
064010
View article
, Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States
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, Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States
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, Snowpack decline kindles more severe fire in the western United States
Climate change is reducing winter snowpack and advancing spring snowmelt across the western United States, interacting with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections that drive spatially predictable interannual fluctuations that contribute to high- or low-snow winters. Early snowmelt extends the fire season, enhancing opportunities for ignition and increasing fuel dryness, both of which contribute to greater burned areas. However, relationships between snowpack on burn severity, a measure of forest loss and expected biogeochemical and hydrological impacts of fire, have not been examined. Here, using remotely sensed snow and fire data spanning 1985–2021, we examined how snowpack quantity and timing of spring snowmelt influence annual area burned and burn severity at the watershed scale. Early snowmelt was associated with earlier occurrences of fire ⩾400 ha and greater annual area burned, whereas low snowpack water content was associated with more severe burn outcomes including greater mean composite burn index (CBI) and larger proportions of high severity fire (CBI ⩾ 2.25). Thus, low-snow winters with early snowmelt may prime forested watersheds to dry, burn, and experience high severity fire. These outcomes are consistent with enhanced fuel dry-down: early snowmelt extends the dry-down window while low snowpack quantity portends greater fuel aridity during the dry period. Our findings also highlight how the ENSO interacts with directional warming: El Niño phases amplify trends of snowpack loss and increasing area burned severely in northwestern watersheds but dampen these trends in southwestern watersheds, while La Niña phases exert the opposite effect. Projected warming, potentially accompanied by greater ENSO variability and extremes, points toward a future of reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and increased area burned at high severity in forests where snowpack historically buffered fire risk, with attendant losses in forest carbon storage and disrupted hydrological function of forested watersheds.
The following article is
Open access
Benzene and other hazardous air pollutants in consumer-grade natural gas in Europe
Tamara L Sparks
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
064008
View article
, Benzene and other hazardous air pollutants in consumer-grade natural gas in Europe
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, Benzene and other hazardous air pollutants in consumer-grade natural gas in Europe
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, Benzene and other hazardous air pollutants in consumer-grade natural gas in Europe
Consumer-grade natural gas leaks contribute to methane-induced climate change and can degrade air quality. However, limited leakage and gas composition data exist outside of North America. Here, we measured stove-off gas leakage in 35 homes and chemically characterized 78 unburned gas samples from residential stoves across seven cities in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Italy. On average, benzene in unburned gas was substantially elevated compared to North America (9 to 73 times higher), while sulfur-based odorants were lower. Modeling of indoor and outdoor benzene enhancements from gas leaks showed potential for hazardous benzene exposure, often undetectable by odor. Three of 35 homes exhibited a stove-off leak that, combined with city-median benzene in gas, resulted in modeled benzene enhancements above the European Union’s annual limit value (1.6 ppbv). The combination of high benzene and relatively low odorization in natural gas suggests that hazardous leaks are likely underreported in Europe.
The following article is
Open access
The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions
Seth Wynes and Kimberly A Nicholas 2017
Environ. Res. Lett.
12
074024
View article
, The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions
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, The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions
Current anthropogenic climate change is the result of greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere, which records the aggregation of billions of individual decisions. Here we consider a broad range of individual lifestyle choices and calculate their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, based on 148 scenarios from 39 sources. We recommend four widely applicable high-impact (i.e. low emissions) actions with the potential to contribute to systemic change and substantially reduce annual personal emissions: having one fewer child (an average for developed countries of 58.6 tonnes CO
-equivalent (tCO
e) emission reductions per year), living car-free (2.4 tCO
e saved per year), avoiding airplane travel (1.6 tCO
e saved per roundtrip transatlantic flight) and eating a plant-based diet (0.8 tCO
e saved per year). These actions have much greater potential to reduce emissions than commonly promoted strategies like comprehensive recycling (four times less effective than a plant-based diet) or changing household lightbulbs (eight times less). Though adolescents poised to establish lifelong patterns are an important target group for promoting high-impact actions, we find that ten high school science textbooks from Canada largely fail to mention these actions (they account for 4% of their recommended actions), instead focusing on incremental changes with much smaller potential emissions reductions. Government resources on climate change from the EU, USA, Canada, and Australia also focus recommendations on lower-impact actions. We conclude that there are opportunities to improve existing educational and communication structures to promote the most effective emission-reduction strategies and close this mitigation gap.
The following article is
Open access
Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program
Christine Shearer
et al
2016
Environ. Res. Lett.
11
084011
View article
, Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program
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, Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program
Nearly 17% of people in an international survey said they believed the existence of a secret large-scale atmospheric program (SLAP) to be true or partly true. SLAP is commonly referred to as ‘chemtrails’ or ‘covert geoengineering’, and has led to a number of websites purported to show evidence of widespread chemical spraying linked to negative impacts on human health and the environment. To address these claims, we surveyed two groups of experts—atmospheric chemists with expertize in condensation trails and geochemists working on atmospheric deposition of dust and pollution—to scientifically evaluate for the first time the claims of SLAP theorists. Results show that 76 of the 77 scientists (98.7%) that took part in this study said they had not encountered evidence of a SLAP, and that the data cited as evidence could be explained through other factors, including well-understood physics and chemistry associated with aircraft contrails and atmospheric aerosols. Our goal is not to sway those already convinced that there is a secret, large-scale spraying program—who often reject counter-evidence as further proof of their theories—but rather to establish a source of objective science that can inform public discourse.
The following article is
Open access
The emergence of snow droughts as drivers of negative extremes in plant productivity over the past decades
D Gampe
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
084011
View article
, The emergence of snow droughts as drivers of negative extremes in plant productivity over the past decades
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, The emergence of snow droughts as drivers of negative extremes in plant productivity over the past decades
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, The emergence of snow droughts as drivers of negative extremes in plant productivity over the past decades
Hydroclimatic extremes such as droughts cause significant anomalies in the global carbon cycle, e.g. via reductions in ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), and hamper the storage capacity of the terrestrial carbon sink. At the same time, across snow covered ecosystems, plant-water availability is often dependent on the snowpack melt during spring and summer. Snow droughts, i.e. anomalous reductions in the amount of water stored in the snowpack, represent an emerging hydroclimatic extreme for these ecosystems. However, the role of snow droughts as drivers of carbon cycle anomalies remains largely unknown. In this study, we quantify the adverse impacts of snow droughts as drivers of negative GPP extreme events across the Northern Hemisphere (30–60° N) for the period 1982–2016. We attribute −4.48 PgC [−2.48 | −7.09 PgC] (mean [min|max] value across GPP datasets) of cumulative negative GPP anomalies to preceding snow droughts. They subsequently drive 23.5% [21.2 | 25.7%] of the negative GPP anomalies in the study region which corresponds to 9.6% [8.9 | 10.8%] of the global negative GPP anomalies. The attributable GPP anomalies show marked increases of +46.5% [+34.2 | +66.2%] in the recent study period (2000–2016 compared to 1982–1998). Particularly, more severe snow droughts act as drivers of negative GPP anomalies and lead to the most pronounced increases in anomalies between the two periods. Snow droughts act as isolated drivers for 15.9% [9.0 | 20.8%] of the cumulative negative GPP anomalies. Additionally, 30.7% [26.5 | 35.3%] of the negative GPP anomalies that were attributed to droughts occurring during a later stage of the growing season also reveal preceding snow droughts. Our study demonstrates the prominent role of snow droughts as drivers of negative GPP anomalies and subsequently impacting the carbon cycle, highlighting the importance of snow droughts in the context of advancing climate change.
The following article is
Open access
Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
Ravneet Kaur and Jesse Abrams 2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
083003
View article
, Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
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, Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
ePub
, Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
Timberland ownership in the United States underwent a major transformation in the late 20th century, driven by changing tax policies, availability of timber raw materials, and generally accepted accounting principles. These shifts played an important role in the financialization of timberlands, reshaping how timberlands are owned and managed. Formerly dominant vertically integrated forest products companies (VIFPCs) not only owned the wood-processing mills but also the timberlands to feed these mills, establishing strong local ties through employment, infrastructure development, and community support. The large-scale divestment of forest products companies in the late 1980s through the early 2000s created opportunities for various actors to enter the timberland ownership landscape, and two organizational forms—timberland investment management organizations (TIMOs) and real-estate investment trusts (REITs)—emerged as the major new timberland owners. In the wake of this ownership transition, multiple popular and academic analyses expressed concerns about possible land fragmentation, biodiversity loss, removal of land from traditional forestry operations, loss of access to non-timber forest products, and repurposing of forestland for non-forest uses through real-estate development. However, after decades of ownership change, the national-level outcomes are still unclear. Through this meta-synthesis, we examine causal relationships between the TIMO/REIT ownership transition and various social, economic, and ecological outcomes. Our findings suggest that management practices, such as harvest intensity, forest certification, and plantation of softwood species, remain largely consistent among VIFPCs and TIMOs/REITs in financialized landscapes. However, community resistance to TIMO/REIT management has occurred, particularly around restricted recreational access and the lack of transparency in land transactions. We conclude that the outcomes of financialized timberlands are deeply interconnected and cannot be adequately understood through dualistic frameworks of social versus economic or ecological versus market outcomes. Instead, they demand integrated analysis that considers the complex socio-environmental systems in which these ownership models operate.
The following article is
Open access
Prospective site-specific life cycle assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement
Maria Myridinas
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
084010
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, Prospective site-specific life cycle assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement
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, Prospective site-specific life cycle assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement
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, Prospective site-specific life cycle assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement
Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a promising marine carbon dioxide removal (CDR) option, but its net climate benefit and wider environmental implications depend strongly on where, and how it is implemented as well as on decarbonized energy and material supply chains. We develop a prospective, site-specific, life cycle assessment (pLCA) that couples a field trials’ validated high-resolution ocean biogeochemical model with life cycle assessment for five OAE pathways deployed via wastewater outfalls in Halifax Harbor, Canada: three on magnesium hydroxide (two from serpentinite, via ammonium sulfate (AS) and HCl leaching (HCl), one from bischofite brine (BIS)) and two on sodium hydroxide (from industrial-grade sodium chloride (NaOHs) and seawater desalination brine hydroxide (NaOHb)). Using the functional unit of removing and permanently storing 1 t of atmospheric CO₂, we compare present-day conditions with a 2050 scenario and quantify eighteen ReCiPe 2016 midpoint impacts. Present-day results show little to no net climate benefit: net climate effects range from −0.09 to +0.71 t CO
-equivalent (CO
e) per t CO₂ removed, with fossil electricity and heat supply dominating the impact. By 2050, all pathways are net removers with uptake efficiencies of 81%–95% as energy supply decarbonizes. BIS performs best in sixteen of eighteen impact categories, whereas NaOHs and AS are consistently worst across most categories. As energy decarbonizes, burdens shift from fossil fuel combustion to materials, metals, and related mining (especially copper), chemicals, and biofuels production for feedstock transport. The analysis shows that robust OAE assessment requires site-specific CO₂ uptake efficiencies, prospective supply-chain representation, and multi-criteria evaluation rather than focusing only on net CO₂ removal, because climate-attractive pathways can carry substantial burdens in (eco)toxicity, resource depletion, or other impact categories. The proposed coupling of a validated regional ocean model with pLCA provides a transferable template to evaluate OAE and other marine CDR options in CDR portfolios.
The following article is
Open access
Street green space is relevant but not sufficient for adapting to growing urban heat in world cities
Giacomo Falchetta
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
084012
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, Street green space is relevant but not sufficient for adapting to growing urban heat in world cities
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, Street green space is relevant but not sufficient for adapting to growing urban heat in world cities
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, Street green space is relevant but not sufficient for adapting to growing urban heat in world cities
Cities face multiple growing climate-related risks. Identifying adaptation strategies and quantifying their effectiveness and limits is hence crucial. Street green space (SGS) receives significant attention in the urban heat adaptation space due to its potential to reduce heat load and provide additional ecosystem benefits. Yet, the majority of existing studies assessing the effectiveness of SGS are either global or very local, and typically rely on remotely-sensed surface temperature and green space density metrics. Limited evidence spanning across different urban and climate contexts exists. Here, we empirically estimate the heat stress reduction potential of SGS across global and local climate zones in 133 cities worldwide using air temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) daily outputs from UrbClim, a 100 m resolution urban microclimate model, combined with a high-resolution SGS indicator, the green view index (GVI). We quantify a SGS cooling efficiency interquartile range of [−0.03, −0.01]
for maximum WBGT, with substantial variation across global climate and local climatic zones. We design reality-bounded scenarios to explore possible evolutions of SGS until 2050. Combining these scenarios with the estimated cooling efficiencies, we show that ambitious yet locally feasible SGS expansion could offset 3%–11% (cities interquartile range) of the projected increase in maximum WBGT under a current policies climate change scenario, and 2%–7% under SSP5-(8.5), compared to a 2008–2017 climatology. These results highlight that SGS expansion is an effective yet insufficient strategy to adapt to the growing urban heat stress across cities worldwide. Conversely, reduced SGS from administrative inaction or climate impacts on vegetation health may worsen urban heat. These findings inform about the global adaptation potential and limits of urban street green, and can support policymakers in framing SGS expansion programs into a broader portfolio of actions to tackle growing urban heat and its adverse consequences.
The following article is
Open access
National-scale field delineation in Mozambique refines our understanding of cropland distribution, field size, and deforestation actors
Philippe Rufin
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
084009
View article
, National-scale field delineation in Mozambique refines our understanding of cropland distribution, field size, and deforestation actors
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, National-scale field delineation in Mozambique refines our understanding of cropland distribution, field size, and deforestation actors
ePub
, National-scale field delineation in Mozambique refines our understanding of cropland distribution, field size, and deforestation actors
The design of science-based policies to improve the sustainability of smallholder agriculture is challenged by a limited understanding of fundamental system properties, such as the spatial distribution of active cropland and field size. We integrate 1.5 m resolution satellite imagery, satellite embeddings, and deep learning to map individual fields in complex smallholder systems at policy-relevant scale. We identify 17 million fields across Mozambique for the target year 2023, reflecting the cropland distribution but also pointing to previously uncaptured agricultural regions located in agricultural frontier regions which host 5%–9% of the Mozambican population. Field size in Mozambique is low overall, with half of the fields being smaller than 0.2 ha, and 78% smaller than 0.5 ha. Field size varies with accessibility, population density, and forest cover change, suggesting the presence of diverse actors, including semi-subsistence smallholder farms, medium-scale commercial farms, and large-scale farming operations. Our results suggest that field size is a key indicator relating to the socio-economic and environmental outcomes of agriculture and their trade-offs.
The following article is
Open access
Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
Ravneet Kaur and Jesse Abrams 2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
083003
View article
, Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
PDF
, Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
ePub
, Industrial to investment: pathways and outcomes of timberland financialization in the United States
Timberland ownership in the United States underwent a major transformation in the late 20th century, driven by changing tax policies, availability of timber raw materials, and generally accepted accounting principles. These shifts played an important role in the financialization of timberlands, reshaping how timberlands are owned and managed. Formerly dominant vertically integrated forest products companies (VIFPCs) not only owned the wood-processing mills but also the timberlands to feed these mills, establishing strong local ties through employment, infrastructure development, and community support. The large-scale divestment of forest products companies in the late 1980s through the early 2000s created opportunities for various actors to enter the timberland ownership landscape, and two organizational forms—timberland investment management organizations (TIMOs) and real-estate investment trusts (REITs)—emerged as the major new timberland owners. In the wake of this ownership transition, multiple popular and academic analyses expressed concerns about possible land fragmentation, biodiversity loss, removal of land from traditional forestry operations, loss of access to non-timber forest products, and repurposing of forestland for non-forest uses through real-estate development. However, after decades of ownership change, the national-level outcomes are still unclear. Through this meta-synthesis, we examine causal relationships between the TIMO/REIT ownership transition and various social, economic, and ecological outcomes. Our findings suggest that management practices, such as harvest intensity, forest certification, and plantation of softwood species, remain largely consistent among VIFPCs and TIMOs/REITs in financialized landscapes. However, community resistance to TIMO/REIT management has occurred, particularly around restricted recreational access and the lack of transparency in land transactions. We conclude that the outcomes of financialized timberlands are deeply interconnected and cannot be adequately understood through dualistic frameworks of social versus economic or ecological versus market outcomes. Instead, they demand integrated analysis that considers the complex socio-environmental systems in which these ownership models operate.
The following article is
Open access
The carbon footprint of procreation: a critical review
Emmanuel Pont 2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
083001
View article
, The carbon footprint of procreation: a critical review
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, The carbon footprint of procreation: a critical review
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, The carbon footprint of procreation: a critical review
In 2017,
The Guardian
published the headline ‘Want to Fight Climate Change? Have Fewer Children,’ based on a controversial yet widely cited study estimating the carbon footprint of procreation—the amount of CO
attributed to having one additional child. These findings reignited population–environment debates, intensified younger generations’ concerns about procreation, and prompted ethical debates about parental environmental responsibility. However, the authors later downplayed the implications of their results, and other studies have used varying approaches to estimate this footprint, involving multiple disciplines and yielding widely divergent outcomes. This narrative review analyzes 26 studies using four main approaches: population–emission projections, economic externality calculations, population–emission system modeling, and micro-level assessments of individual or age-specific emissions. They differ in perspective (macro vs micro), method (exogenous vs endogenous), and outcome (CO
emissions vs monetized externalities). The carbon footprint of procreation is a deeply uncertain indicator, relying on long-term prospective population and emissions scenarios. Published results vary over two orders of magnitude for total emissions, and by three for externalities. These wide differences stem from both methodological choices and parameters. The claim that having a child is the most detrimental action for the climate relies on flawed scenarios. Current policies and Paris-compliant emissions result in much lower figures. The carbon footprint of procreation raises complex analytical, ethical and political issues that extend beyond traditional population–environment debates. These findings have frequently been misinterpreted or overstated in both public discourse and academic literature. In particular, it is essential to differentiate between a child’s short-term annual consumption emissions and long-term carbon legacy. The former could be compared to other climate actions, while the latter is more theoretical. Reiterating the limits, maintaining adequate analytical granularity, and clearly communicating uncertainty can help mitigate the ethical and political challenges inherent in these assessments.
The following article is
Open access
Holopelagic sargassum beachings in the Western Atlantic Ocean: a scoping review ranging from causes to management
Hugo Julia
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
073004
View article
, Holopelagic sargassum beachings in the Western Atlantic Ocean: a scoping review ranging from causes to management
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, Holopelagic sargassum beachings in the Western Atlantic Ocean: a scoping review ranging from causes to management
ePub
, Holopelagic sargassum beachings in the Western Atlantic Ocean: a scoping review ranging from causes to management
Over the past decade, recurrent sargassum beaching events have become a significant ecological and socio-economic concern across the tropical Western Atlantic Ocean, particularly affecting the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. This scoping review aims to map the existing evidence related to these beachings, with the goal of synthesizing current knowledge, identifying key themes and highlighting research gaps. Through a comprehensive analysis of peer-reviewed and grey literature, the review reveals a rapidly expanding but uneven body of research, with concentrations in the detection of holopelagic sargassum, localized impacts assessment and valorization studies. Conversely, this study reveals gaps and further research opportunities in better understanding the factors causing offshore sargassum proliferation, the need for larger scale monitoring and characterizing beached sargassum composition, its variability and stabilization for industrial uses, as well as the need for more precise and complete forecasting systems used in synergy with detection methods.
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Indigenous peoples and renewable energy: impacts, contestations, and collective action
Le Anh Nguyen Long
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
073002
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, Indigenous peoples and renewable energy: impacts, contestations, and collective action
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, Indigenous peoples and renewable energy: impacts, contestations, and collective action
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, Indigenous peoples and renewable energy: impacts, contestations, and collective action
Although renewable energy (RE) transitions offer pathways to sustainability, their implementation often exacerbates existing injustices, particularly for Indigenous communities. This paper examines Indigenous peoples’ complex and evolving relationship with RE transitions through a systematic review of 87 peer-reviewed articles. It identifies three key thematic areas: (1) the impacts of RE transitions on Indigenous communities; (2) Indigenous contestations against harmful RE practices, where Indigenous communities have mobilized politically and legally to resist exploitative projects; and (3) Indigenous community energy as a new site of collective action, where Indigenous peoples are asserting sovereignty, fostering energy independence, and shaping sustainable energy models on their own terms. The findings suggest that Indigenous communities are active agents of change who navigate the tension between environmental sustainability and social justice. RE projects often impose disproportionate costs on Indigenous lands; however, Indigenous-led initiatives demonstrate the potential for more equitable and inclusive energy futures. The study underscores the need to recognize Indigenous rights and ways of knowing, ensure meaningful participation in decision-making, and support Indigenous-led innovations in energy governance.
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Determining the influence of water availability for photosynthetic life in Antarctica: a systematic review
Cassandra Newman
et al
2026
Environ. Res. Lett.
21
073001
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, Determining the influence of water availability for photosynthetic life in Antarctica: a systematic review
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, Determining the influence of water availability for photosynthetic life in Antarctica: a systematic review
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, Determining the influence of water availability for photosynthetic life in Antarctica: a systematic review
Antarctica is paradoxically the driest continent on the planet, despite holding most of the Earth’s freshwater. In these conditions, water availability governs distribution, health, and survival of vegetation on the continent. This relationship remains poorly understood due to extreme weather, remoteness and logistical challenges. This limits research access and long-term observations which have resulted in a fragmented understanding of how water availability shapes Antarctica’s photoautotrophs. This systematic review analysed 113 peer-reviewed studies published between 1990 and 2025 using a PRISMA 2020 approach. The inclusion criteria comprised of studies only in Antarctica where both water availability and photosynthetic life were discussed. Studies went through two screening stages, firstly, the title and abstract were screened, then a more in-depth look at the whole study to determine relevance. This review identifies methodological trends and gaps in scientific studies that examine how water availability influences photosynthetic life in Antarctica and evaluates the potential and consistency of the methods used across these studies. While water was frequently cited as an important environmental factor, few studies directly quantified its availability or ecological influence. The spatial distribution of the studies assessed showed that 69 studies were tied to specific sites, 27 covered multiple locations, and 17 were reviews or did not specify location. Approximately 65% of all studies included fieldwork, ranging from field data collection for later analysis to fully field-based investigations. Research is temporally restricted to short summer surveys because that is the most accessible and logistically feasible period for data collection. The reliance on short-term sampling, varied definitions of water availability, and inconsistent use of remote sensing and modelling approaches have made it difficult to synthesise findings or predict broader ecosystem responses. These inconsistencies point to a need for more standardised, scalable methods that can link fine-scale ecological processes to wider environmental patterns.
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Energy transition and regional adaptation potential in hydrocarbon-rich countries
Xenarios et al
View accepted manuscript
, Energy transition and regional adaptation potential in hydrocarbon-rich countries
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, Energy transition and regional adaptation potential in hydrocarbon-rich countries
Hydrocarbon-rich countries face complex challenges in transitioning to renewable energy, particularly in sub-national regions economically dependent on oil, gas, and coal (OGC) extraction and export. This study investigates the regional capacity for the energy transition and the ability to adapt in four OGC-rich countries—Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, South Africa, and Australia—each with distinct governance structures, economic profiles, and renewable energy potentials. Drawing on Evolutionary Economic Geography and elements from Sustainability Transitions theory, we develop a conceptual framework to assess four key factors: OGC dependence, renewable energy expansion, governance mechanisms, and regional planning capabilities. Using expert surveys and probabilistic analysis, we evaluate the current significance and projected future impact of these factors over a 10-year horizon. Results indicate persistent path dependencies and governance constraints in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, whereas Australia demonstrates greater adaptability owing to its federal structure and diversified economy. South Africa, despite decentralised governance, faces infrastructural and financial limitations that hinder transition planning. Across all cases, renewable energy expansion is progressing, but community-level benefits and regional planning remain underdeveloped. Governance emerges as a critical enabler, yet its effectiveness varies widely. The findings highlight the need for enhanced capabilities in polycentric governance, inclusive stakeholder engagement, and integrated regional planning to support just and effective transitions. This comparative analysis emphasises the necessity of aligning national energy strategies, policies, and funding with regional realities and priorities, particularly within carbon-intensive economies. The findings also provide policy-relevant insights to enhance regional adaptability and facilitate energy transitions that adhere to global climate commitments.
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Coproduced assessments of climate change adaptation reveal equity challenges in locally led approaches
Howard et al
View accepted manuscript
, Coproduced assessments of climate change adaptation reveal equity challenges in locally led approaches
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, Coproduced assessments of climate change adaptation reveal equity challenges in locally led approaches
Systematic assessments of climate change adaptation are critical for monitoring progress and planning effectively, but current approaches are limited in their scope, accuracy, and relevance to local contexts. Here, we present an improved approach using coproduction to quantitively assess adaptation based on local knowledge and priorities. This is applied to locally led adaptation (LLA) to flood risk in Tamale, Ghana, to provide the first quantitative assessments of this increasingly common adaptation practice. Through a multi-year process, including community marble distribution, focus groups, and household surveys, 11 LLA solutions were assessed. Assessments were based on adaptation success criteria that mattered most to local communities and included important considerations that are commonly missing from technical assessments, including multiple risk-reduction mechanisms, equity, sustainability, and co-impacts. Community-based and behavioural LLA solutions, such as collective action and tree planting, were deemed most effective, whilst structural and technical solutions were ranked lower. By integrating these assessments into a flood risk model, we show that LLA approaches significantly reduced flood risk overall but did not address existing inequalities. Our results showcase the potential of coproduction to increase the scope and robustness of adaptation assessments and highlight practical challenges of delivering on the LLA principles in real-world settings.
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Assessing the accuracy of the climate trace global vehicular CO2 emissions
Gurney et al
View accepted manuscript
, Assessing the accuracy of the climate trace global vehicular CO2 emissions
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, Assessing the accuracy of the climate trace global vehicular CO2 emissions
Accurate estimation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the infrastructure scale remains essential to climate science and policy applications. Vehicle emissions often dominate GHG emissions in urban areas and are rapidly increasing globally. Climate Trace, co-founded by former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, is a new AI-based effort to estimate roadway-scale GHG emissions. However, limited independent peer-reviewed assessment has been made of this dataset. Here, we compare Climate Trace onroad CO 2 emissions in U.S. urban areas to atmospherically calibrated, multi-constraint estimates of onroad CO 2 emissions from the Vulcan Project. Across 260 urban areas in 2021, we find a mean relative difference (MRD) of 69.9%. These large differences are driven by biases in Climate Trace's machine learning model, fuel economy values, and fleet distribution values. We conclude that sub-national policy guidance or climate science applications using the onroad CO 2 emissions estimates made by Climate Trace should be done so with caution.
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Learning together: Navigating the interconnected waters of storytelling, nitrogen pollution, and codesign in coastal communities across three watersheds
Davis et al
View accepted manuscript
, Learning together: Navigating the interconnected waters of storytelling, nitrogen pollution, and codesign in coastal communities across three watersheds
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, Learning together: Navigating the interconnected waters of storytelling, nitrogen pollution, and codesign in coastal communities across three watersheds
Nitrogen pollution is a complex 21st century environmental challenge with profound negative effects on coastal communities. Engineering solutions alone are insufficient for addressing this. Here we describe an innovative approach to making nitrogen pollution, its causes, and solutions understandable to those most affected by it through an interactive web-based platform, videos, storytelling, art exhibits, and documentary films. A critical aspect of the project structure was identifying and collaborating with local community leaders from the outset. Their experiences as environmental advocates and their community connections fundamentally shaped the direction of the project, benefitting both advocates (referred to as “Alliance members”), their organizations, “underestimated communities,” and the research team. Codesigning the research project with community leaders ensured the research aligned with community priorities, thereby enhancing the applicability of the research. Working across geographies, disciplines, backgrounds, and experiences can be challenging. The team took numerous steps, including multiple site visits to each location, workshops on systems thinking for team members, community arts and film screening events, and regular virtual meetings, to address these challenges. The success of the project and the codesign approach underscore the importance of looking to expand beyond traditional engineering approaches to encompass humanistic approaches such as storytelling and visual media to connect with ongoing community efforts.
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The role of transport in New York’s air quality impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
Aboagye-Okyere et al
View accepted manuscript
, The role of transport in New York’s air quality impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
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, The role of transport in New York’s air quality impacts from the 2023 Canadian wildfires
In 2023, Canada experienced its most severe wildfire season on record, burning over 7.8 million hectares and releasing unprecedented carbon emissions surpassing the country’s previous record by several fold. These fires produced dense plumes that were transported into the Northeastern United States, including New York City, contributing to extreme air pollution in the area. This study investigates whether atmospheric transport from Canada to New York City (NYC) during the 2023 wildfire season was unusual compared to previous years, considering the important role that transport consistently plays in carrying smoke over long distances, or whether the meteorological conditions were different than previous years, which led to the poor air quality in NYC. We use Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) simulations driven by reanalysis winds for the period 1980-2023, along with daily PM2.5 observations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to simulate long-range aerosol transport under base and high emission scenarios and analyze pollutant transport and concentrations over NYC. Results show that although long-range transport was necessary to bring smoke to NYC, the transport patterns in 2023 were not significantly different from those in previous years. Instead, the record-breaking PM2.5 levels were mainly caused by the extraordinary magnitude of fire emissions. The model accurately captured the spatial distribution of smoke but exhibited approximately an 18-hour delay in the timing of peak concentrations relative to observations. These findings thus emphasize anomalously high fire emissions, rather than transport or meteorology, played a more crucial role in driving the air quality impacts of this event over the Northeastern US.
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Mapping global urban boundaries from the global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data
Xuecao Li
et al
2020
Environ. Res. Lett.
15
094044
View article
, Mapping global urban boundaries from the global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data
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, Mapping global urban boundaries from the global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data
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, Mapping global urban boundaries from the global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data
Urban boundaries, an essential property of cities, are widely used in many urban studies. However, extracting urban boundaries from satellite images is still a great challenge, especially at a global scale and a fine resolution. In this study, we developed an automatic delineation framework to generate a multi-temporal dataset of global urban boundaries (GUB) using 30 m global artificial impervious area (GAIA) data. First, we delineated an initial urban boundary by filling inner non-urban areas of each city. A kernel density estimation approach and cellular-automata based urban growth modeling were jointly used in this step. Second, we improved the initial urban boundaries around urban fringe areas, using a morphological approach by dilating and eroding the derived urban extent. We implemented this delineation on the Google Earth Engine platform and generated a 30 m resolution global urban boundary dataset in seven representative years (i.e. 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2018). Our extracted urban boundaries show a good agreement with results derived from nighttime light data and human interpretation, and they can well delineate the urban extent of cities when compared with high-resolution Google Earth images. The total area of 65 582 GUBs, each of which exceeds 1 km
, is 809 664 km
in 2018. The impervious surface areas account for approximately 60% of the total. From 1990 to 2018, the proportion of impervious areas in delineated boundaries increased from 53% to 60%, suggesting a compact urban growth over the past decades. We found that the United States has the highest per capita urban area (i.e. more than 900 m
) among the top 10 most urbanized nations in 2018. This dataset provides a physical boundary of urban areas that can be used to study the impact of urbanization on food security, biodiversity, climate change, and urban health. The GUB dataset can be accessed from
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A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
William F Lamb
et al
2021
Environ. Res. Lett.
16
073005
View article
, A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
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, A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
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, A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018
Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.
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A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed
Laurence Hawker
et al
2022
Environ. Res. Lett.
17
024016
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, A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed
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, A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed
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, A 30 m global map of elevation with forests and buildings removed
Elevation data are fundamental to many applications, especially in geosciences. The latest global elevation data contains forest and building artifacts that limit its usefulness for applications that require precise terrain heights, in particular flood simulation. Here, we use machine learning to remove buildings and forests from the Copernicus Digital Elevation Model to produce, for the first time, a global map of elevation with buildings and forests removed at 1 arc second (∼30 m) grid spacing. We train our correction algorithm on a unique set of reference elevation data from 12 countries, covering a wide range of climate zones and urban extents. Hence, this approach has much wider applicability compared to previous DEMs trained on data from a single country. Our method reduces mean absolute vertical error in built-up areas from 1.61 to 1.12 m, and in forests from 5.15 to 2.88 m. The new elevation map is more accurate than existing global elevation maps and will strengthen applications and models where high quality global terrain information is required.
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A global analysis of soil acidification caused by nitrogen addition
Dashuan Tian and Shuli Niu 2015
Environ. Res. Lett.
10
024019
View article
, A global analysis of soil acidification caused by nitrogen addition
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, A global analysis of soil acidification caused by nitrogen addition
Nitrogen (N) deposition-induced soil acidification has become a global problem. However, the response patterns of soil acidification to N addition and the underlying mechanisms remain far from clear. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 106 studies to reveal global patterns of soil acidification in responses to N addition. We found that N addition significantly reduced soil pH by 0.26 on average globally. However, the responses of soil pH varied with ecosystem types, N addition rate, N fertilization forms, and experimental durations. Soil pH decreased most in grassland, whereas boreal forest was not observed a decrease to N addition in soil acidification. Soil pH decreased linearly with N addition rates. Addition of urea and NH
NO
contributed more to soil acidification than NH
-form fertilizer. When experimental duration was longer than 20 years, N addition effects on soil acidification diminished. Environmental factors such as initial soil pH, soil carbon and nitrogen content, precipitation, and temperature all influenced the responses of soil pH. Base cations of Ca
2+
, Mg
2+
and K
were critical important in buffering against N-induced soil acidification at the early stage. However, N addition has shifted global soils into the Al
3+
buffering phase. Overall, this study indicates that acidification in global soils is very sensitive to N deposition, which is greatly modified by biotic and abiotic factors. Global soils are now at a buffering transition from base cations (Ca
2+
, Mg
2+
and K
) to non-base cations (Mn
2+
and Al
3+
). This calls our attention to care about the limitation of base cations and the toxic impact of non-base cations for terrestrial ecosystems with N deposition.
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Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
Sabine Fuss
et al
2018
Environ. Res. Lett.
13
063002
View article
, Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
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, Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
The most recent IPCC assessment has shown an important role for negative emissions technologies (NETs) in limiting global warming to 2 °C cost-effectively. However, a bottom-up, systematic, reproducible, and transparent literature assessment of the different options to remove CO
from the atmosphere is currently missing. In part 1 of this three-part review on NETs, we assemble a comprehensive set of the relevant literature so far published, focusing on seven technologies: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), afforestation and reforestation, direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), enhanced weathering, ocean fertilisation, biochar, and soil carbon sequestration. In this part, part 2 of the review, we present estimates of costs, potentials, and side-effects for these technologies, and qualify them with the authors’ assessment. Part 3 reviews the innovation and scaling challenges that must be addressed to realise NETs deployment as a viable climate mitigation strategy. Based on a systematic review of the literature, our best estimates for sustainable global NET potentials in 2050 are 0.5–3.6 GtCO
yr
−1
for afforestation and reforestation, 0.5–5 GtCO
yr
−1
for BECCS, 0.5–2 GtCO
yr
−1
for biochar, 2–4 GtCO
yr
−1
for enhanced weathering, 0.5–5 GtCO
yr
−1
for DACCS, and up to 5 GtCO
yr
−1
for soil carbon sequestration. Costs vary widely across the technologies, as do their permanency and cumulative potentials beyond 2050. It is unlikely that a single NET will be able to sustainably meet the rates of carbon uptake described in integrated assessment pathways consistent with 1.5 °C of global warming.
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The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
Elisabeth Vogel
et al
2019
Environ. Res. Lett.
14
054010
View article
, The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
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, The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
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, The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
Climate extremes, such as droughts or heat waves, can lead to harvest failures and threaten the livelihoods of agricultural producers and the food security of communities worldwide. Improving our understanding of their impacts on crop yields is crucial to enhance the resilience of the global food system. This study analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the impacts of climate extremes on yield anomalies of maize, soybeans, rice and spring wheat at the global scale using sub-national yield data and applying a machine-learning algorithm. We find that growing season climate factors—including mean climate as well as climate extremes—explain 20%–49% of the variance of yield anomalies (the range describes the differences between crop types), with 18%–43% of the explained variance attributable to climate extremes, depending on crop type. Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors, while irrigation partly mitigates negative effects of high temperature extremes. We developed a composite indicator to identify hotspot regions that are critical for global production and particularly susceptible to the effects of climate extremes. These regions include North America for maize, spring wheat and soy production, Asia in the case of maize and rice production as well as Europe for spring wheat production. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate extremes for agricultural predictions and adaptation planning and provides an overview of critical regions that are most susceptible to variations in growing season climate and climate extremes.
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International comparison of health care carbon footprints
Peter-Paul Pichler
et al
2019
Environ. Res. Lett.
14
064004
View article
, International comparison of health care carbon footprints
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, International comparison of health care carbon footprints
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, International comparison of health care carbon footprints
Climate change confronts the health care sector with a dual challenge. Accumulating climate impacts are putting an increased burden on the service provision of already stressed health care systems in many regions of the world. At the same time, the Paris agreement requires rapid emission reductions in all sectors of the global economy to stay well below the 2 °C target. This study shows that in OECD countries, China, and India, health care on average accounts for 5% of the national CO
footprint making the sector comparable in importance to the food sector. Some countries have seen reduced CO
emissions related to health care despite growing expenditures since 2000, mirroring their economy wide emission trends. The average per capita health carbon footprint across the country sample in 2014 was 0.6 tCO
, varying between 1.51 tCO
/cap in the US and 0.06 tCO
/cap in India. A statistical analysis shows that the carbon intensity of the domestic energy system, the energy intensity of the domestic economy, and health care expenditure together explain half of the variance in per capita health carbon footprints. Our results indicate that important leverage points exist inside and outside the health sector. We discuss our findings in the context of the existing literature on the potentials and challenges of reducing GHG emissions in the health and energy sector.
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Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure
Johan R Meijer
et al
2018
Environ. Res. Lett.
13
064006
View article
, Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure
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, Global patterns of current and future road infrastructure
Georeferenced information on road infrastructure is essential for spatial planning, socio-economic assessments and environmental impact analyses. Yet current global road maps are typically outdated or characterized by spatial bias in coverage. In the Global Roads Inventory Project we gathered, harmonized and integrated nearly 60 geospatial datasets on road infrastructure into a global roads dataset. The resulting dataset covers 222 countries and includes over 21 million km of roads, which is two to three times the total length in the currently best available country-based global roads datasets. We then related total road length per country to country area, population density, GDP and OECD membership, resulting in a regression model with adjusted
of 0.90, and found that that the highest road densities are associated with densely populated and wealthier countries. Applying our regression model to future population densities and GDP estimates from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we obtained a tentative estimate of 3.0–4.7 million km additional road length for the year 2050. Large increases in road length were projected for developing nations in some of the world’s last remaining wilderness areas, such as the Amazon, the Congo basin and New Guinea. This highlights the need for accurate spatial road datasets to underpin strategic spatial planning in order to reduce the impacts of roads in remaining pristine ecosystems.
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A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights
Helmut Haberl
et al
2020
Environ. Res. Lett.
15
065003
View article
, A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights
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, A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights
ePub
, A systematic review of the evidence on decoupling of GDP, resource use and GHG emissions, part II: synthesizing the insights
Strategies toward ambitious climate targets usually rely on the concept of ‘decoupling’; that is, they aim at promoting economic growth while reducing the use of natural resources and GHG emissions. GDP growth coinciding with absolute reductions in emissions or resource use is denoted as ‘absolute decoupling’, as opposed to ‘relative decoupling’, where resource use or emissions increase less so than does GDP. Based on the bibliometric mapping in part I (Wiedenhofer
et al
, 2020
Environ. Res. Lett.
15
063002
), we synthesize the evidence emerging from the selected 835 peer-reviewed articles. We evaluate empirical studies of decoupling related to final/useful energy, exergy, use of material resources, as well as CO
and total GHG emissions. We find that relative decoupling is frequent for material use as well as GHG and CO
emissions but not for useful exergy, a quality-based measure of energy use. Primary energy can be decoupled from GDP largely to the extent to which the conversion of primary energy to useful exergy is improved. Examples of absolute long-term decoupling are rare, but recently some industrialized countries have decoupled GDP from both production- and, weaklier, consumption-based CO
emissions. We analyze policies or strategies in the decoupling literature by classifying them into three groups: (1) Green growth, if sufficient reductions of resource use or emissions were deemed possible without altering the growth trajectory. (2) Degrowth, if reductions of resource use or emissions were given priority over GDP growth. (3) Others, e.g. if the role of energy for GDP growth was analyzed without reference to climate change mitigation. We conclude that large rapid absolute reductions of resource use and GHG emissions cannot be achieved through observed decoupling rates, hence decoupling needs to be complemented by sufficiency-oriented strategies and strict enforcement of absolute reduction targets. More research is needed on interdependencies between wellbeing, resources and emissions.
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Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
Julienne Stroeve and Dirk Notz 2018
Environ. Res. Lett.
13
103001
View article
, Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
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, Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
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, Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons
The decline in the floating sea ice cover in the Arctic is one of the most striking manifestations of climate change. In this review, we examine this ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice across all seasons. Our analysis is based on satellite retrievals, atmospheric reanalysis, climate-model simulations and a literature review. We find that relative to the 1981–2010 reference period, recent anomalies in spring and winter sea ice coverage have been more significant than any observed drop in summer sea ice extent (SIE) throughout the satellite period. For example, the SIE in May and November 2016 was almost four standard deviations below the reference SIE in these months. Decadal ice loss during winter months has accelerated from −2.4 %/decade from 1979 to 1999 to −3.4%/decade from 2000 onwards. We also examine regional ice loss and find that for any given region, the seasonal ice loss is larger the closer that region is to the seasonal outer edge of the ice cover. Finally, across all months, we identify a robust linear relationship between pan-Arctic SIE and total anthropogenic CO
emissions. The annual cycle of Arctic sea ice loss per ton of CO
emissions ranges from slightly above 1 m
throughout winter to more than 3 m
throughout summer. Based on a linear extrapolation of these trends, we find the Arctic Ocean will become sea-ice free throughout August and September for an additional 800 ± 300 Gt of CO
emissions, while it becomes ice free from July to October for an additional 1400 ± 300 Gt of CO
emissions.
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2006-present
Environmental Research Letters
doi: 10.1088/issn.1748-9326
Online ISSN: 1748-9326