GMD - Model evaluation paper

GMD - Model evaluation paper
Model evaluation paper
21 Apr 2026
Transferable Hourly Ozone Forecasting with Transformers
Sindhu Vasireddy, Michael Langguth, and Martin Schultz
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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This study evaluates a transformer model for hourly air quality forecasting using past pollution, weather, and anthropogenic metadata (emissions, land use). It outperforms Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts, especially in urban regions, with lower bias and improved stability. Trained in Germany, it transfers to South Korea with minimal adaptation, preserving geochemical relationships and showing strong cross-regional generalization.
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16 Apr 2026
Towards improved Euro-Mediterranean discharge simulations in regional coupled climate models: a comparative assessment of hydrologic performance
Mohamed Hamitouche, Giorgia Fosser, Arezoo RafieeiNasab, and Alessandro Anav
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2881–2901,
2026
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Predicting how much water flows from rivers into the Mediterranean is challenging due to climate change and human impacts. We compared two hydrological models – a global river routing model and a fully coupled land surface–hydrology model – to assess their performance. The coupled model, especially after calibration, better reproduces river discharge and seasonal flow, helping improve flood and drought planning.
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09 Apr 2026
GOFS16: an operational global ocean analysis and forecasting system at eddy-resolving resolution
Simona Masina, Andrea Cipollone, Doroteaciro Iovino, Stefania Ciliberti, Rita Lecci, Sergio Cretí, Vladyslav Lyubartsev, Giovanni Coppini, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The paper presents GOFS16, an eddy-resolving global operational ocean and sea ice forecasting system which provides 6-day forecasts of three-dimensional temperature, salinity, currents, sea level, and sea ice properties. The system assimilates satellite and in situ observations using a 3D variational data assimilation scheme. Validation is conducted routinely using global and regional metrics. Results indicate that GOFS16 performs within the expected range of skill for current global systems.
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31 Mar 2026
Evaluating the radiative fidelity of PALM (v25.04) in high-resolution: impact of diverse urban morphology and vegetation on short-wave radiation
Jelena Radović, Michal Belda, Martin Bureš, Kryštof Eben, Jan Geletič, Jakub Jura, Pavel Krč, Hynek Řezníček, and Jaroslav Resler
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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In this experiment, the Parallelized Large-Eddy Simulation Model (PALM)’s performance in simulating incoming and outgoing short-wave radiation in a densely built, highly heterogeneous urban environment was validated. In particular, we assessed whether the micro-scale model realistically resolves the effects of three-dimensional urban morphology and vegetation on short-wave radiation, including its propagation, shading, reflection, and attenuation within the simulated domain.
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31 Mar 2026
Application and evaluation of CRACMM v1.0 mechanism in PM
2.5
simulation over China
Qingfang Su, Yifei Chen, Yangjun Wang, David C. Wong, Havala O. T. Pye, Ling Huang, Golam Sarwar, Benjamin Murphy, Bryan Place, and Li Li
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2531–2550,
2026
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This study evaluated the PM
2.5
simulation by the latest Community Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Multiphase Mechanism (CRACMM) mechanism coupled with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, covering different seasons and specific regions over China. Modelling results derived by CRACMM are compared with two well-established chemical mechanisms. The research findings provide a solid foundation for the further application of CRACMM in understanding and regulating air pollution globally.
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31 Mar 2026
Optimizing WRF physics for multi-decadal simulation of near-surface climate over arid Xinjiang, China
Yang Xu, Liang Zhang, Mengxin Bai, Shenzhen Tian, and Zhixin Hao
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 8 comments)
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We compared many model configurations to identify a reliable setup for long-term climate simulation in arid Xinjiang, China. Dozens of options were tested over six decades for temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity, radiation, and pressure. Performance depends strongly on how atmospheric and land processes are combined. We recommend a balanced configuration to support climate studies and high-quality data products in dry, complex terrain.
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30 Mar 2026
Evaluation and improvement of CAMS-derived CCN number concentrations using in-situ measurements
Yannick Emanuel Anders, Karoline Block, Mira Pöhlker, and Johannes Quaas
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Particles in the atmosphere can trigger the formation of cloud droplets, affecting cloud properties and climate. This study evaluates a new global dataset of these particles with measurements from 25 sites around the world. The variability in time and space and their conditional formation behaviour is analysed. The authors identify systematic biases and introduce a simple correction based on observations that greatly improves the dataset’s accuracy.
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24 Mar 2026
Sensitivity of Arctic mixed-phase cloud simulations to ice microphysical modifications in the WDM6 scheme of WRF (v4.3.1)
Hyun-Joon Sung, Kyo-Sun Sunny Lim, Song-You Hong, JiHoon Shin, Baek-Min Kim, and Ji-Hun Choi
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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Arctic clouds containing both liquid droplets and ice crystals are difficult to simulate. We tested how ice-related changes in a weather model, designed for temperate regions, perform in the Arctic. Ice crystal shape is the dominant factor: spherical crystals nearly eliminate cloud ice, shifting it to snow. Changes producing moderate effects in temperate regions cause extreme responses in the Arctic, showing model improvements must be tested across different climates.
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18 Mar 2026
The CMIP6-downscaled CORDEX-Southeast Asia (SEA) ensemble: evaluation and benchmarking for megacities of SEA
Phuong Loan Nguyen, Lisa V. Alexander, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Faye Cruz, Jerasorn Santisirisomboon, Liew Juneng, Donaldi S. Permana, Jing Xiang Chung, Julie Mae Dado, John L. McGregor, Grace Redmond, Tse Wai Po, Fredolin Tangang, Tan Phan-Van, Son C. H. Truong, Marcus Thatcher, Long Trinh-Tuan, Ummu Ma’rufah, Jennifer Tibay, Giovanni Di Virgilio, and Stephen White
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 6 comments)
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We introduce an ensemble of climate models that simulate Southeast Asia's future climate for 1960–2100. We (1) showed how well these models simulate observed climate by comparison with multiple observations, (2) applied a standardized benchmarking framework to model outputs to select a subset of models for further dynamical downscaling at kilometre-scale over megacities of SEA. These international efforts can help guide climate model design and the use and interpretation of climate projections.
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17 Mar 2026
Assessing and enhancing Noah-MP land surface modeling over tropical forests using machine learning techniques
Yanyan Cheng, Yaomin Wang, Kalli Furtado, Cenlin He, Fei Chen, Alan D. Ziegler, Song Chen, Matteo Detto, Yuna Mao, Baoxiang Pan, Yoshiko Kosugi, Marryanna Lion, Shoji Noguchi, Satoru Takanashi, Lulie Melling, and Baoqing Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2197–2217,
2026
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Tropical land surface processes shape the Earth's climate, but models often lack accuracy in the tropics due to limited data for validation. We improved the Noah with Multi-Parameterizations (Noah-MP) land surface model for the tropics using data from forests in Panama and Malaysia. Calibration enhanced simulations of energy and water fluxes, and revealed key vegetation and soil parameters, as well as future directions for model improvement in tropical regions.
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16 Mar 2026
Process-based evaluation of green roof models for assessment of heat mitigation efficacy in WRF (v4.3.1) and EnergyPlus (v8.6.0)
Maria Martinez Mendoza, Alireza Saeedi, James A. Voogt, and E. Scott Krayenhoff
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Green roofs can help cool cities, but models must represent them accurately to quantify this potential. Yet few studies evaluate green roof models against real data. We evaluated two versions of EcoRoof, the green roof module in EnergyPlus, and a green roof option for WRF using measurements from London, Ontario. EcoRoof generally matched observed heat fluxes, surface temperature, and soil moisture, while WRF overestimated heat and underestimated cooling.
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13 Mar 2026
Global fully coupled climate-aerosol CMA-CPSv4: aerosol simulation performance
Mengzhe Zheng, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Weihua Jie, Yiming Liu, Xiaoge Xin, Jie Zhang, He Zhao, Xindan Zhang, and Jiajie Yang
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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The dynamic evolution and interactions of aerosols are first incorporated into the China Meteorological Administration Climate Prediction System version 4 (CMA-CPSv4). This paper evaluates the prediction system's simulation performance for aerosols. The results show that the CMA-CPSv4 reasonably simulates the spatial distribution of aerosols. The reasonable simulation of aerosols is fundamental for studying the impact of aerosols on climate prediction in our next work.
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12 Mar 2026
Assessment of transparent exopolymer particles in the Arctic Ocean implemented into the coupled ocean–sea ice–biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1–REcoM3
Moritz Zeising, Laurent Oziel, Silke Thoms, Özgür Gürses, Judith Hauck, Bernd Heinold, Svetlana N. Losa, Manuela van Pinxteren, Christoph Völker, Sebastian Zeppenfeld, and Astrid Bracher
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2077–2109,
2026
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We assess the implementation of additional organic carbon pathways into a global setup of a numerical model, which simulates the ocean circulation, sea ice, and biogeochemical processes. With a focus on the Arctic Ocean, this model tracks the temporal and spatial dynamics of phytoplankton, exudation of organic carbon, and its aggregation to so-called transparent exopolymer particles. We evaluate the simulation using measurements from ship-based and remote-sensing campaigns in the Arctic Ocean.
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11 Mar 2026
Dynamical linkages between planetary boundary layer schemes and wildfire spread processes: a case study using WRF-Fire version 4.6
Yongli Wang, Chun Yang, Lamei Shi, Qichao Yao, and Linhao Zhong
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 2059–2075,
2026
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Wildfires can strongly affect local weather by heating the land surface and changing wind and turbulence near the ground. This study used computer simulations together with field observations from a mountain wildfire in China to examine how different schemes represent fire–weather interactions. The results show that one scheme performs better, helping improve wildfire prediction in complex terrain.
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10 Mar 2026
Conservation of Heat in the Coupled Arctic Prediction System (CAPS v1.1): Comprehensive model evaluation based on the MOSAiC observations
Chao-Yuan Yang, Fengguan Gu, Jiping Liu, Annette Rinke, Hu Yang, and Xiaoxu Shi
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Accurately exchanging energy between the atmosphere and the ocean-ice systems through surface heat fluxes is crucial for climate modelling. We present an improved version of Coupled Arctic Prediction System (CAPS) by revising flux coupling for conservation of heat. Our results show that the model with improved flux coupling can better simulate sea ice conditions during the period of Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC).
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04 Mar 2026
New framework for benchmarking decadal predictions leveraging the PCMDI Metric Package with interactive visualization
Jung Choi, Jiwoo Lee, Kristin Chang, Paul A. Ullrich, Peter J. Gleckler, and Sang-Yoon Jun
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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As climate risks grow, society needs reliable predictions for the coming years and decades. We developed a framework to collectively compare climate prediction systems and examine their performances on global temperature, rainfall, and sea ice. As a complementary to traditional analyses, our new framework offers tracking evolution of model performance in simulation time, helping scientists and stakeholders better understand strengths and limits of decadal climate prediction.
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27 Feb 2026
Optimization of snow cover fraction parameterization in the Community Land Model: implementation and preliminary validation over Tibetan Plateau
Kai Yang, Chenghai Wang, Yang Cui, Lingyun Ai, Feimin Zhang, and Pinghan Zhaoye
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 3 comments)
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In this study, focusing on a well-developed LSM—CLM5, we optimized the SCF parameterization scheme through considering effects of withered grass steam and topographic relief on the probability distribution and the depletion of snow, reducing the positive biases of SCF by 34 %~88 % and the surface cold biases by 1~2 ℃ in snow-affected regions over Tibetan Plateau.
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27 Feb 2026
Comprehensive Inter-comparison of Generative AI Models for Super-Resolution Precipitation Downscaling Across Hydroclimatic Regimes
Shivam Singh, Simon Michael Papalexiou, Hebatallah M. Abdelmoaty, Tom Hartvigsen, and Antonios Mamalakis
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 5 comments)
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High-resolution precipitation is essential for hydrologic and climate-risk applications, but climate models are too coarse to resolve storm-scale structure and extremes. We compare a deterministic U-NET and two generative models (WGAN and diffusion) for 8× and 16× precipitation downscaling using ERA5-Land. All models conserve rainfall mass, but differ at fine scales: U-NET is stable yet smooths extremes, while generative models better capture variability and heavy tails with added uncertainty.
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26 Feb 2026
Assessment of gap-filling techniques applied to satellite phytoplankton composition products for the Atlantic Ocean
Ehsan Mehdipour, Hongyan Xi, Alexander Barth, Aida Alvera-Azcárate, Adalbert Wilhelm, and Astrid Bracher
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1619–1643,
2026
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Phytoplankton are vital for marine ecosystems and nutrient cycling, detectable by optical satellites. Data gaps caused by clouds and other non-optimal conditions limit comprehensive analyses like trend monitoring. This study evaluated DINCAE and DINEOF gap-filling methods for reconstructing chlorophyll
datasets, including total chlorophyll
and five major phytoplankton groups. Both methods showed robust reconstruction capabilities, aiding pattern detection and long-term ocean colour analysis.
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24 Feb 2026
Benchmarking ozone stress parameterizations in CLM5: a global mechanistic assessment of thresholds and memory effects
Peng Zhou, Jieming Chou, Li Dan, Jean-François Lamarque, Muhammad Bilal, Fang Li, Mengting Sun, Rebecca Buccholz, Desneiges Murray, Zhaoxiang Cao, Jing Peng, Kai Li, Fuqiang Yang, Wei Pan, Jinyan Chen, and Liwen Xing
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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We assessed the impact of ozone damage representations in a land-surface model on simulations of vegetation productivity. Results varied depending on how ozone effects were triggered and how vegetation recovery was modeled. Schemes that incorporated vegetation-specific thresholds and memory effects on photosynthesis and water loss more accurately reflected spatial patterns, indicating directions for enhancing model realism and improving projections of ecosystem responses to ozone pollution.
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19 Feb 2026
Highly scalable geodynamic simulations with
HyTeG
Ponsuganth Ilangovan, Nils Kohl, and Marcus Mohr
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1455–1472,
2026
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Geophysically accurate model of mantle convection requires a mesh with a width on the order of ~1 km. Traditional codes represent the systems of equation by setting up the associated matrix. However, at the scales we want to operate, even forming this matrix is hardly possible. Thus, we use the matrix-free framework HyTeG to create the geophysical model and verify it with numerical experiments while assessing the scalability of the framework and laying out the difficulties involved.
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18 Feb 2026
A high-resolution coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the northeastern US continental shelf: MOM6-COBALT-NEUS25v1.0
Dalton Kei Sasaki, Cristina Schultz, and Enrique Curchitser
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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From Cape Hatteras to Nova Scotia, local communities have suffered consequences of ocean warming, with warmer-water species moving north, lobster populations struggling due to rising temperatures, and more frequent marine heat waves. We developed an ocean model that includes carbon/nutrients cycle and validated it with data from moorings, satellites, and other observations. This tool will help future studies better understand how ocean changes affect marine life and society.
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13 Feb 2026
Ecosystem Climate Sensitivities Drive the Divergence in Aerosol-Induced Carbon Uptake Across CMIP6 Models
Zhaoyang Zhang, Meng Fan, Minghui Tao, Yunhui Tan, and Quan Wang
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 2 comments)
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In this paper, we examined the inter-model differences among five Earth System Models in simulating the impact of aerosols on plant productivity. All models showed that the impact of human-made aerosols on global plant productivity was negative, but with the divergence in the amount of reduction. We found that the divergence was mostly caused by the parameterization of model in simulating canopy photosynthesis, which determines how strongly plants react to changes in climatic factors.
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12 Feb 2026
Hydrological Auditing of LISFLOOD v4.1.1: Impacts of Model Setup on Water Balance Components in the Po River Basin
Francesca Moschini, Andrea Ficchì, and Alberto Pistocchi
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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We evaluated how different configurations of a large-scale river basin model affect simulations of streamflow, evaporation, soil moisture, and groundwater in the Po River Basin in Italy. We tested alternative soil depths and the inclusion or removal of subsurface flow pathways, and compared results with observations and with an established long-term water balance relationship. Setups that best matched river flow often underestimated evaporation and overestimated deep groundwater recharge.
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11 Feb 2026
Implementation of a multi-layer snow scheme in the GloSea6 seasonal forecast system: impacts on land–atmosphere interactions and climatological biases
Eunkyo Seo, Paul A. Dirmeyer, and Sunlae Tak
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1261–1280,
2026
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This study examines a multi-layer snow scheme in seasonal forecasts. Compared to a single-layer scheme, it better captures snow insulation, delaying spring snowmelt by 1–2 weeks. This postpones evaporation and slows soil moisture depletion, which promotes evaporative cooling due to increasing energy partitioning into latent heat flux and enhances precipitation occurrence. This leads to realistic land-atmosphere interactions and reduced biases across Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes.
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10 Feb 2026
Interactive Simulation of Methane and Hydrogen Soil Deposition in ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry Model (EMAC) v2.55 with the new Submodel BIODEP (v1.0)
Anna Martin, Klaus Klingmüller, Benedikt Steil, Sergey Gromov, Yu-Ri Lee, Dong Yeong Chang, Nic Surawski, Jos Lelieveld, Sujong Jeong, and Andrea Pozzer
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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We evaluate a new model simulating soil uptake of methane and hydrogen from the atmosphere. Coupled to an atmospheric chemistry and land surface model, it accounts for weather and soil conditions. Our results match observations, showing accurate removal depending on soil properties, temperature, moisture, and atmospheric conditions. This work improves the model’s ability to represent natural cycles of methane and hydrogen.
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09 Feb 2026
Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska
Xiang Huang, Yu Zhang, Bo Gao, Charles J. Abolt, Ryan L. Crumley, Cansu Demir, Richard P. Fiorella, Bob Busey, Bob Bolton, Scott L. Painter, and Katrina E. Bennett
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 1193–1211,
2026
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Predicting hydrological runoff in Arctic permafrost regions is difficult due to limited observations and complex terrain. We used a detailed physics-based model simulations to improve runoff estimates in a Earth system land model. Our method improved runoff accuracy and worked well across two different Arctic regions. This helps make runoff parameterization schemes more reliable for understanding water flow in permafrost areas under a changing climate.
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09 Feb 2026
Process-Level Diagnostics of Marine Stratocumulus in TaiESM1: Insights into Parameterization Successes and Deficiencies
Yi-Hsuan Chen and Chein-Jung Shiu
External preprint server,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Many climate models struggle to represent marine stratocumulus clouds. In contrast, the Taiwan Earth System Model version 1 reproduces them realistically, yet the reasons are unclear. Using short-term forecast simulations and process-based analysis, we reveal how individual physical processes affect these clouds and identify both strengths and weaknesses in the model. This analysis framework can be applied to understand other phenomena in climate models.
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04 Feb 2026
Dynamic drag partitioning in GEOS-Chem (v. 14.2.3) eliminatessource function and tuning, revealing equifinality of atmosphericdust observations
Boyan Liu, Hongquan Song, Adrian Chappell, and Zhuoli Zhou
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 0 comments)
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We studied how vegetation and soil roughness shape released dust. Conceptualising light reflected from the land surface to represent wind sheltering, we improved a global dust model. This approach removes the need for guesswork about where dust comes from and still matches observed dust in the atmosphere. It also shows that different paths can lead to similar dust levels, which encourages better ways to track how often dust is lifted. This helps guide efforts to predict dust and its impacts.
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03 Feb 2026
Development of ECCO-downscaled Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea regional simulation using MITgcm(66j)
Yoshihiro Nakayama, Shuntaro Hyogo, Yichen Lin, Taewook Park, Jinho Lee, Juistine Caillet, Gobishankar Mohan, Mattia Poinelli, Pierre Dutrieux, Kazuki Nakata, Hong Zhang, Brice Loose, and Lauren Kowalski
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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We develop a regional ocean model of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in Antarctica. Differences in model setups and parameter choices often limit usability and broader scientific application, especially for non-ocean modellers. We carefully evaluate the model outputs and establish a common control experiment that can be shared and applied across studies with tracer and particle applications. This effort aims to support wide community use and improve understanding of ice–ocean interactions.
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03 Feb 2026
Spectral Nudging Impacts on Precipitation Downscaling in the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model, version CCAM-2504: Insights from Summer 2011
Son C. H. Truong, Marcus J. Thatcher, Phuong Loan Nguyen, Lisa V. Alexander, and John L. McGregor
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 8 comments)
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Understanding how rainfall may change in the future is vital for managing floods and water resources in Australia. We tested different ways of constraining a regional climate model so it better matched observed rainfall during the extreme 2010–11 La Niña wet event. The most effective settings produced much more realistic rainfall, increasing confidence in using the model to explore future rainfall patterns and extreme weather risks.
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30 Jan 2026
Evaluation of the LandscapeDNDC model for drained peatland forest managements, LDNDC v1.35.2 (revision 11434)
Ahmed Hasan Shahriyer, David Kraus, Tiina Markkanen, Mika Korkiakoski, Helena Rautakoski, Suvi Orttenvuori, Yao Gao, Henri Kajasilta, Rüdiger Grote, Annalea Lohila, and Tuula Aalto
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 10 comments)
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We successfully represented hydrology and carbon cycle associated with different forestry managements (Rotational and continuous cover forestry) for a drained peatland ecosystem using the processed based model LDNDC. This provides a robust framework for investigating future management scenarios and develop forest management strategies that supports climate neutrality in peatland ecosystems.
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29 Jan 2026
Quantitative assessment of parameterization sensitivity and uncertainty in Noah-MP multi-physics ensemble simulations of gross primary productivity across China’s terrestrial ecosystem
Jie Lai, Anzhi Wang, Yage Liu, Lidu Shen, Yuan Zhang, Yiwei Diao, Rongrong Cai, Rongping Li, Wenli Fei, and Jiabing Wu
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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This study evaluated Noah-MP performance in simulating gross primary productivity (GPP) across China and analyzed the sensitivity of key parameterization schemes. The modified two-stream radiation scheme (RAD01) shows superior performance, especially in grassland and shrubland ecosystems, while the BTR03 β-factor performs better in croplands. Surface exchange and runoff schemes systematically overestimate GPP, indicating structural biases in energy–carbon and hydro–vegetation coupling.
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26 Jan 2026
Modeling Indian Ocean circulation to study marine debris dispersion: insights into high-resolution and wave forcing effects with Symphonie 3.6.6
Lisa Weiss, Marine Herrmann, Patrick Marsaleix, Matthieu Bompoil, and Christophe Maes
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 827–865,
2026
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We developed a high-resolution ocean model to study marine debris dispersion across the Indian Ocean, from coastal scales to the open sea. Results show that model resolution and wave forcing, through both the Stokes-Coriolis force and Stokes drift, play a key role in shaping ocean circulation, seasonal energy budgets, and floating debris trajectories. High-resolution currents and wave forcing, especially during monsoons, increase the anisotropic spread and travel distances of drifting material.
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22 Jan 2026
Multi-season evaluation of temperature and wind in the marine boundary layer along the United States northeast coast in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model
Bianca Adler, Laura Bianco, David D. Turner, Joseph B. Olson, Xia Sun, Joshua Gebauer, Nicola Bodini, Stefano Letizia, and James M. Wilczak
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 6 comments)
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Accurate operational forecasts of temperature and wind in the coastal marine boundary layer are important for a wide range of applications. Leveraging data that were collected along the U.S. northeast coast during a multi-year period for the Third Wind Forecast Improvement project, we investigated the performance of the operational forecast model and identified systematic errors in wind and temperature forecasts that are now being addressed by the model developers.
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21 Jan 2026
Process-based evaluation of ENSO simulation sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the Chinese Academy of Sciences FGOALS-f3 Climate System Model
Meng-Er Song, Lin Chen, Yongqiang Yu, Bo An, Jiuwei Zhao, and Hai Zhi
EGUsphere,
2026
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 6 comments)
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This study evaluates how horizontal resolution affects ENSO simulation in the CAS FGOALS-f3 climate model by comparing its ~25 km and ~100 km configurations. Using a reproducible, process-based diagnostic framework, we identify the structural origins of ENSO biases and show that they stem from resolution-dependent air-sea feedbacks and high-frequency atmospheric variability. This work informs future development for the FGOALS-f3 family and serves as a reference for CMIP6/CMIP7 model evaluation.
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20 Jan 2026
Assessing resolution sensitivity in coupled climate simulations with AWI-CM3
Martina Zapponini, Tido Semmler, Jan Streffing, Thomas Rackow, Lettie A. Roach, and Thomas Jung
EGUsphere,
2026
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study evaluates the impact of grid resolution on long-term present and future climate runs using the Alfred Wegener Institute global model AWI-CM3. A higher-resolution setup (35 km atmosphere, eddy-permitting/resolving ocean) improves small-scale processes and long-term variability, across variables and regions, and can capture nonlinear ocean–atmosphere interactions often missed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. Simulation data will be made publicly available.
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19 Jan 2026
Wind and turbulence evaluation of the ICON model (icon-2024.01-1) at sub-kilometer scales using Doppler lidar observations
Maike Ahlgrimm and Eileen Päschke
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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This study uses a new type of observation of wind and turbulence to investigate the accuracy with which the German weather forecasting model predicts these variables in the lowest 600 metres of the atmosphere. The model performs adequately during the day, but struggles with both wind and turbulence at night. This is important for wind energy planning and understanding how airborne particles are transported by the wind. The study suggests ways in which the model could be further improved.
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19 Jan 2026
Evaluation of semi-implicit and explicit sedimentation approaches in the two-moment cloud microphysics scheme of ICON
Simon Bolt and Nadja Omanovic
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 595–619,
2026
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We examined the two-moment cloud microphysics sedimentation schemes of the ICON (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) weather model, comparing the default semi-implicit with an explicit method faster on graphics processing units. Using idealized setups and thunderstorm case studies, we find differences in numerical diffusion and extreme precipitation rates due to changed coupling with the remaining microphysics. Neither method develops alarming instabilities in full model setups; both can be safely used.
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15 Jan 2026
Evaluation of atmospheric sulfur dioxide simulated with the EMAC (version 2.55) Chemistry–Climate Model using satellite and ground-based observations
Ismail Makroum, Patrick Jöckel, Martin Dameris, Nicolas Theys, and Johannes De Leeuw
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 447–476,
2026
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We use a state-of-the-art numerical chemistry-climate model to study the atmospheric sulfur dioxide budget. We simulate the atmospheric concentration of sulfur dioxide (SO
) and corresponding sulfur deposition fluxes and compare the results with observational data from a satellite instrument and with ground-based in-situ measurements. For the evaluation of the simulated atmospheric lifetime of SO
, we also simulate the fate of SO
emitted by two volcanic eruptions that happened in 2019.
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15 Jan 2026
Evaluation of coupled and uncoupled ocean–ice–atmosphere simulations using icon-2024.07 and NEMOv4.2.0 for the EURO-CORDEX domain
Vera Maurer, Wibke Düsterhöft-Wriggers, Rebekka Beddig, Janna Meyer, Claudia Hinrichs, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Joanna Staneva, Birte-Marie Ehlers, and Frank Janssen
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 543–578,
2026
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With CORDEX-CMIP6, ensembles of regional climate projections enable analyses on regional climate change. We present a regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model setup for Europe, tailored to provide consistent climate change information for the North and Baltic Seas. The simulation effectively captures the mean climate, variability, and extremes such as storm surges and marine heatwaves. Using this setup, we will contribute climate projections to EURO-CORDEX.
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13 Jan 2026
Surface Kinetic Energy Distributions in the North and Equatorial Atlantic Derived from Surface Drifter Observations and High-Resolution Numerical Models with Tidal Forcing
Rémi Laxenaire, Eric P. Chassignet, Xiaobiao Xu, Alan J. Wallcraft, Luna Hiron, Brian K. Arbic, Maarten C. Buijsman, Miguel Solano, and Shane Elipot
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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Fast-changing currents shape surface energy and drive interior mixing of heat and salt. Because they are hard to observe globally, we use numerical models to quantify their impacts. We evaluate seven North and Equatorial Atlantic simulations with varying parameterizations, comparing modeled currents with those from observed surface buoy tracks. We show results are sensitive to model grid and seafloor resolution, tides and wind variability, with contrasting offshore and nearshore responses.
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13 Jan 2026
From Single Storms to Global Waves: A Global 2.5 km ICON Simulation of Weather and Climate
Andreas Franz Prein, Praveen Pothapakula, Christian Zeman, Morgane Lalonde, and Marius Rixen
EGUsphere,
2026
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 7 comments)
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We produce one of the world's most detailed global weather and climate simulations, spanning 4 years and enabling the direct representation of storms rather than approximations. This allows the capture of dangerous events such as strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and powerful tropical and mid-latitude storms anywhere on Earth. Our results show major improvements over traditional climate models, but also reveal remaining challenges in representing large, organized storm systems in the tropics.
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23 Dec 2025
Operational chemical weather forecasting with the ECCC online Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System version 023 (RAQDPS023) – Part 2: Multi-year prospective and retrospective performance evaluation
Michael D. Moran, Alexandru Lupu, Verica Savic-Jovcic, Junhua Zhang, Qiong Zheng, Elisa I. Boutzis, Rabab Mashayekhi, Craig A. Stroud, Sylvain Ménard, Jack Chen, Konstantinos Menelaou, Rodrigo Munoz-Alpizar, Dragana Kornic, and Patrick M. Manseau
EGUsphere,
2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Here we present an evaluation of 5 annual runs made with the Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System, an operational chemical weather forecast system for North America. Measurements included NO
, O
, and PM
2.5
, 8 other gas-phase species, 7 PM
2.5
species, and 3 ions in precipitation. Routine scores were augmented by many stratified analyses, and the results point to some model components where improvements are desirable. A companion paper provides a full description of the system.
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23 Dec 2025
Untangling the effects of vertical mixing schemes and convective adjustment in the Mediterranean Sea
Lucia Gualtieri, Paolo Oddo, Hans Burchard, Federica Borile, Aimie Moulin, Pietro Miraglio, Francesco Maicu, and Emanuela Clementi
EGUsphere,
2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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This study addresses a gap in understanding how turbulent mixing closure schemes and convective adjustments interplay in the Mediterranean Sea. Coupled ocean-wave simulations were performed with different mixing parameterizations and model results were compared against Argo float observations across different space and time scales. Results show that the Generalised Length Scale closure scheme best reproduces observed mixed layer properties and variability, without needing convective adjustment.
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19 Dec 2025
Modelling wind farm effects in HARMONIE-AROME (cycle 43.2.2) – part 2: Wind turbine database and application to Europe
Jana Fischereit, Bjarke T. E. Olsen, Marc Imberger, Henrik Vedel, Kristian H. Møller, Andrea N. Hahmann, and Xiaoli Guo Larsén
EGUsphere,
2025
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 5 comments)
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We evaluated how operating wind farms influence the atmosphere in numerical weather prediction using two wind farm parameterizations in the HARMONIE-AROME model, applied by over 10 European weather services. Accurate yield forecasts require including both onshore and offshore turbines. Wind turbines slightly alter near-surface temperature (<1 K on average). We also present an open-access European wind turbine dataset combining multiple data sources.
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15 Dec 2025
The ACCESS-CM2 climate model with a higher resolution ocean-sea ice component (1/4°)
Wilma G. C. Huneke, Andrew McC. Hogg, Martin Dix, Daohua Bi, Arnold Sullivan, Shayne McGregor, Chiara M. Holgate, Siobhan P. O'Farrell, and Micael J. T. Oliveira
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9991–10015,
2025
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A new configuration of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model, ACCESS-CM2, with a higher resolution ocean-sea ice component is introduced. The new version of the coupled climate model was designed to better capture smaller-scale ocean motions. While this configuration improves the representation of many aspects of the climate system, some biases from the existing lower-resolution version persist.
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10 Dec 2025
An evaluation of the regional distribution and wet deposition of secondary inorganic aerosols and their gaseous precursors in IFS-COMPO preparatory to cycle 49R1
Jason E. Williams, Swen Metzger, Samuel Rémy, Vincent Huijnen, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9913–9943,
2025
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One of the main constituents of Particulate Matter at the surface are Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA) which are influenced by both anthropogenic emissions and the acidity of clouds and aerosols. This study shows improvements in introduced into the IFS-COMPO (Integrated Forecast System-COMPOsition) simulating the surface concentrations of SIA and the resulting changes in the total wet deposition for Europe, the US and South-East Asia.
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09 Dec 2025
Comparison of precipitation parameterizations in Regional Climate Model (RegCM5): a case study of the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB)
Eatemad Keshta, Doaa Amin, Ashraf M. ElMoustafa, and Mohamed A. Gad
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9791–9803,
2025
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Regional Climate Model version 5 (RegCM5) reasonably reproduced the dominant spatiotemporal pattern of annual precipitation over the basin using the Emanuel convective scheme with the Nogherotto–Tompkins (NoTo) large-scale scheme. Using the MOLOCH non-hydrostatic dynamical core is recommended in future research for improving precipitation simulation and assessing the impacts of land-use change, due to dam-induced reservoirs on local climate.
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04 Dec 2025
Sensitivity of cloud structure and precipitation to cloud microphysics schemes in ICON and implications for global km-scale simulations
Maor Sela, Philipp Weiss, and Philip Stier
EGUsphere,
2025
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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Clouds play a key role in Earth’s climate, but their representation in models remains uncertain. We use high-resolution simulations to examine how two statistical representations of cloud processes influence cloud and rain formation, and how these effects manifest in global models. We find that simulated clouds are highly sensitive to the chosen method, and that features such as rain, fog, and ice become even more variable at the global scale.
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03 Dec 2025
The ICON-based Earth System Model for climate predictions and projections (ICON XPP v1.0)
Wolfgang A. Müller, Stephan Lorenz, Trang V. Pham, Andrea Schneidereit, Renate Brokopf, Victor Brovkin, Nils Brüggemann, Fatemeh Chegini, Dietmar Dommenget, Kristina Fröhlich, Barbara Früh, Veronika Gayler, Helmuth Haak, Stefan Hagemann, Moritz Hanke, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann Jungclaus, Martin Köhler, Peter Korn, Luis Kornblueh, Clarissa A. Kroll, Julian Krüger, Karel Castro-Morales, Ulrike Niemeier, Holger Pohlmann, Iuliia Polkova, Roland Potthast, Thomas Riddick, Manuel Schlund, Tobias Stacke, Roland Wirth, Dakuan Yu, and Jochem Marotzke
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9385–9415,
2025
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We provide a new Earth System model configuration framed into the ICON architecture, which provides the baseline for the next generation of climate predictions and projections (hereafter ICON XPP). Two resolutions of ICON XPP are presented that show high runtime performances making it suitable to run long integrations and large-ensemble experiments. ICON XPP similarly perform to CMIP6-class of climate models making it a good basis for climate forecasts and projections, and climate research.
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28 Nov 2025
Urban heat forecasting in small cities: evaluation of a high-resolution operational numerical weather prediction model
Yuqi Huang, Chenghao Wang, Tyler Danzig, Temple R. Lee, and Sandip Pal
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 9237–9256,
2025
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We evaluated a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model in a small, semi-arid U.S. city using dense ground-based measurements. While the forecasts demonstrated good skill for temperature and humidity, they consistently overestimated wind and underestimated nighttime cooling, with inaccurate heat advection predictions. The results highlight the need for improved urban representation in forecast models to better support heat warning systems for small cities.
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25 Nov 2025
Process-Oriented Evaluation of Stationary Rossby Waves and Their Impact on Surface Air Temperature Extremes in Dynamical Downscaling over North America
Koichi Sakaguchi, Seth A. McGinnis, L. Ruby Leung, Melissa S. Bukovsky, Rachel R. McCrary, Ziming Chen, Chuan-Chieh Chang, and Yanjie Li
EGUsphere,
2025
Revised manuscript accepted for GMD
(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We evaluated Rossby waves in dynamical downscaling simulations over North America, and their connections to surface air temperature variability and heatwaves. Simulated Rossby wave propagation is distorted by flow discontinuities at lateral boundaries and by biased mean wind patterns, thereby breaking the region-specific connections between Rossby waves and surface temperature. Adjusting simulated large-scale winds to match the forcing data can reduce these biases.
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25 Nov 2025
Proximal surface pedogeophysical characterization in Maritime Antarctica: assessing pedogeomorphological, periglacial, and landform influences
Danilo César de Mello, Clara Glória Oliveira Baldi, Cássio Marques Moquedace, Isabelle de Angeli Oliveira, Gustavo Vieira Veloso, Lucas Carvalho Gomes, Márcio Rocha Francelino, Carlos Ernesto Gonçalves Reynaud Schaefer, Elpídio Inácio Fernandes-Filho, Edgar Batista de Medeiros Júnior, Fabio Soares de Oliveira, José João Lelis Leal Souza, Tiago Osório Ferreira, and José A. M. Demattê
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8949–8972,
2025
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The study explores Maritime Antarctica's geology, shaped by periglacial forces, using pioneering gamma-spectrometric and magnetic surveys on igneous rocks due to limited Antarctic surveys. Machine learning predicts radionuclide and magnetic content based on terrain features, linking their distribution to landscape processes, morphometrics, lithology, and pedogeomorphology. Inaccuracies arise due to complex periglacial processes and landscape complexities.
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25 Nov 2025
Modelling stratospheric composition for the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service: multi-species evaluation of IFS-COMPO Cy49
Simon Chabrillat, Samuel Rémy, Quentin Errera, Vincent Huijnen, Christine Bingen, Jonas Debosscher, François Hendrick, Swen Metzger, Adrien Mora, Daniele Minganti, Marc Op de beek, Léa Reisenfeld, Jason E. Williams, Henk Eskes, and Johannes Flemming
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8973–9014,
2025
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We document the forecasts of the composition of the stratosphere by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. The model's predictions are compared with satellite measurements over a recent period, during polar ozone depletion events, and after the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The system performs well for sulfate aerosols, ozone and several other key gases but not as well for several nitrogen-containing gases. Chemical processes in aerosols and polar clouds should be improved.
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21 Nov 2025
Optimizing physical scheme selection in RegCM5 for improved air–sea fluxes over Southeast Asia
Quentin Desmet, Marine Herrmann, and Thanh Ngo-Duc
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8855–8886,
2025
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Climate model performance at the air–sea interface has long been overlooked across the Southeast Asian seas. We thus assess various regional model physics configurations in this regard. Finding one optimal configuration is challenging: reliable rainfall rarely coincides with correct radiative heating. Simulations of rainfall however yield more dissensus, suggesting that this variable should be prioritized, for which the best results are obtained with the cumulus convection scheme of Tiedtke.
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20 Nov 2025
Global parameter sensitivity analysis of modelling water, energy and carbon dynamics in a temperate swamp
Oluwabamise Lanre Afolabi, Hongxing He, and Maria Strack
EGUsphere,
2025
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: open, 1 comment)
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Our study completed an uncertainty analysis of a modelling experiment for multi-decade biophysical conditions (e.g., plant processes and hydrology) and carbon (C) flux simulations at a temperate swamp in Southern Ontario, Canada. The adopted uncertainty analysis technique (GLUE) improved the modelling outcomes of our study. Consequently, the findings of this research will help inform decision making on future C flux modelling experiments and peatland C management in temperate swamps.
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18 Nov 2025
Ensemble forecasts of isolated and compound wind and precipitation extremes in Europe using HC-SWG (v3.1) and MA-SWG (v1.1) Stochastic Weather Generators
Meriem Krouma and Gabriele Messori
EGUsphere,
2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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We present two forecasting methods for extreme precipitation and wind in Europe, using stochastic weather generators and past atmospheric patterns. One targets precipitation via weather model reforecasts; the other predicts wind from large-scale patterns. Both outperform standard weather models up to 10 days ahead, offering improved accuracy for both individual and compound extreme events.
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14 Nov 2025
Evaluating the E3SMv2-MPAS ocean–sea ice coupled unstructured model in the Arctic: Atlantification processes and systematic biases
Xinyuan Lv, Huizan Wang, Yu Cao, Kaijun Ren, Yangjun Wang, and Hao Ding
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8535–8568,
2025
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This study evaluates the performance of the varying-resolution mesh model, E3SMv2-MPAS, in simulating key Arctic processes—from sea ice distribution and surface properties to the complex, three-dimensional structures of the Atlantic Water layer. We also pinpoint specific areas where the model still struggles, providing valuable directions for future model development. This progress means scientists can now use this tool more confidently to understand how Arctic ocean layers work and change.
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13 Nov 2025
Improving Simulation of Earth System Variability through Weakly Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation in E3SM
Pengfei Shi, L. Ruby Leung, Zhaoxia Pu, Samson Hagos, and Karthik Balaguru
EGUsphere,
2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 4 comments)
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Reliable climate prediction requires accurate initialization of the ocean state. We developed a new data assimilation system that incorporates ocean temperature and salinity observations into a fully coupled climate model. This system improves simulations of Earth system variability from years to decades, and enhances skills in simulating winter temperature and precipitation variability over the United States. The results advance more reliable and skillful climate predictions.
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12 Nov 2025
Benchmarking and evaluating the NASA Land Information System (version 7.5.2) coupled with the refactored Noah-MP land surface model (version 5.0)
Cenlin He, Tzu-Shun Lin, David M. Mocko, Ronnie Abolafia-Rosenzweig, Jerry W. Wegiel, and Sujay V. Kumar
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8439–8460,
2025
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This study integrates the refactored community Noah-MP version 5.0 model with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) version 7.5.2 to streamline the synchronization, development, and maintenance of Noah-MP within LIS and to enhance their interoperability and applicability. The model benchmarking and evaluation results reveal key model strengths and weaknesses in simulating land surface quantities and show implications for future model improvements.
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12 Nov 2025
Simulated and Observed Transport Estimates Across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP) Section
Gokhan Danabasoglu, Frederic S. Castruccio, Burcu Boza, Alice M. Barthel, Arne Biastoch, Adam Blaker, Alexandra Bozec, Diego Bruciaferri, Frank O. Bryan, Eric P. Chassignet, Yao Fu, Ian Grooms, Catherine Guiavarc'h, Hakase Hayashida, Andrew McC. Hogg, Ryan M. Holmes, Doroteaciro Iovino, Andrew E. Kiss, M. Susan Lozier, Gustavo Marques, Alex Megann, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Dave Storkey, Luke van Roekel, Jon Wolfe, Xiaobiao Xu, and Rong Zhang
EGUsphere,
2025
Preprint under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 16 comments)
Short summary
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A comparison of simulated and observed overturning transports across the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program sections for the 2014–2022 period is presented. Eighteen ocean simulations participate in the study. The simulated transports are in general agreement with observations. Analyzing overturning circulations in both depth and density space together provides a more complete picture of the overturning properties. The study serves as a benchmark for evaluation of ocean models.
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10 Nov 2025
The spatial distribution of convective precipitation – an evaluation of cloud microphysics schemes with polarimetric radar observations
Gregor Köcher and Tobias Zinner
Geosci. Model Dev., 18, 8363–8377,
2025
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Simulations of convective precipitation events with microphysics schemes of varying complexity are statistically evaluated against polarimetric radar observations. Convective precipitation is potentially hazardous and difficult to predict. Cloud microphysics schemes contribute significantly to this uncertainty. Depending on the microphysics used, the simulated precipitation distribution varies significantly. The main reason for these differences are the underlying rain drop size distributions.
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04 Nov 2025
Evaluating the EPICC-Model for Regional Air Quality Simulation: A Comparative Study with CAMx and CMAQ
Mengjie Lou, Qizhong Wu, Wending Wang, Huansheng Chen, Kai Cao, Xiaohan Fan, Dingyue Liang, Fenfen Yu, Jiating Zhang, Wei Wang, and Zifa Wang
EGUsphere,
2025
Revised manuscript under review for GMD
(discussion: final response, 7 comments)
Short summary
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This study compares the performance of the independently developed EPICC-Model with CAMx and CMAQ in simulating PM
2.5
and O
in China. It finds that EPICC-Model excels in simulating summer ozone peaks, accurately captures pollution characteristics in highly polluted areas, and better reproduces persistent compound pollution processes. Furthermore, this study reveals common issues among the models and directions for improvement, providing a basis for optimizing global air quality models.
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