Jon Robson - Meteorology
Jon Robson - Meteorology
Department of Meteorology – University of Reading
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Research In Meteorology
Professor of Climate Science - NCAS
Research Interests:
The processes that drive regional climate variability and change - especially in the Atlantic sector.
Climate Prediction on both regional and global scales from years to decades ahead.
Ocean dynamics.
Current Research Projects:
CANARI - Climate change in the Arctic - North Atlantic region and impacts on the UK
(website)
EPOC - Explaining and predicting the ocean converyor
(website)
ALPACA - Advancing the long-range prediction, attribution and forecast Calibration of AMOC and its climate impacts
WISTEREA - Wind Stilling and Energy in Europe and Asia
TipESM - Exploring Tipping Points and their Impacts Using Earth System Models
(website)
ISOTIPIC - Interacting ice Sheet and Ocean Tipping - Indicators, Processes, Impacts and Challenges
Postdoctoral & graduate student supervision
Niamh O'Callaghan
- PhD student. Working on understanding AMOC drift in decadal hindcasts.
Dan Hodson
- Senior Research Scientist in NCAS. Working on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability.
Paul-Arthur Monerie
- Senior Research Scientist in NCAS.
Gaurav Madan
- Research Scientist working on ALPACA and EPOC.
Balaji Senapati
- Research Scientist, co-supervised with Chris O'Reilly.
Saloua Peatier
- Research Scientist working on TipESM and OptimESM.
Other interests
I'm co-chair of WCRP's Decadal Climate Prediction Project
(DCPP)
Previous research projects:
The North Atlantic Climate System Integrated Study
(ACSIS)
WISHBONE - Wider impacts of Subpolar North Atlantic decadal variability on the ocean and atmosphere
SNAP-DRAGON: Subpolar North Atlantic Processes - Dynamics and pRedictability of vAriability in Gyre and OverturNing
DOVE - Decadal Ocean Variability and East Asia
Dynamics and Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and Climate
(DYNAMOC)
Global Dynamics of climate Variability and impacts on East Asia (DYVA)
Reanalysis of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (RAMOC)
SMURPHS - Securing Multidisciplinary UndeRstanding and Prediction of Hiatus and Surge events
Seasonal to decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services
(SPECS)
Centaur Publications
Jump to:
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2006
Number of items:
74
2026
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Schiemann, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856
Brayshaw, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2026)
Global wind stilling and the role of sub-monthly variability in explaining deficiencies in atmospheric reanalyses.
Climate Dynamics.
ISSN 0930-7575
(In Press)
2025
Zhang, M.
Dong, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
and
Schiemann, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856
(2025)
Anthropogenic influences on 2022-like summer heatwaves over the Yangtze River valley and projected changes in the likelihood of the event.
Environmental Research Communications, 7 (12).
121008.
ISSN 2515-7620
doi:
10.1088/2515-7620/ae2a98
Marcos, M.
Agulles, M.
Amores, A.
Feng, X.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2025)
Constraining extreme storm surges along the European coasts from a large ensemble of climate models.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 130 (12).
e2025JC022863.
ISSN 2169-9291
doi:
10.1029/2025JC022863
Carmo-Costa, T.
Bilbao, R.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Teles-Machado, A.
and
Ortega, P.
(2025)
A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content.
Earth System Dynamics, 16 (4).
pp. 1001-1028.
ISSN 2190-4987
doi:
10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025
Petit, T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7922-9363
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Ferreira, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774
Yeager, S.
and
Evans, D. G.
(2025)
Coherence of the AMOC over the Subpolar North Atlantic on interannual to multiannual time scales.
Geophysical Research Letters, 52 (9).
e2025GL115171.
ISSN 1944-8007
doi:
10.1029/2025GL115171
Marcos, M.
Amores, A.
Agulles, M.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
and
Feng, X.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4143-107X
(2025)
Global warming drives a threefold increase in
persistence and 1°C rise in intensity of marine
heatwaves.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 122 (16).
e2413505122.
ISSN 1091-6490
doi:
10.1073/pnas.2413505122
Dong, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911
Aksenov, Y.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
Colfescu, I.
Harvey, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6510-8181
Hirschi, J.
Josey, S.
Lu, H.
Mecking, J.
Oltmanns, M.
Osprey, S.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Rynders, S.
Shaffrey, L.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2696-752X
Sinha, B.
Sutton, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
and
Weisheimer, A.
(2025)
Key drivers of large scale changes in North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic circulations and their predictability.
Climate Dynamics, 63.
113.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi:
10.1007/s00382-025-07591-1
2024
Reintges, A.
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Sutton, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
and
Yeager, S. G.
(2024)
Subpolar North Atlantic mean state affects the response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 models.
Journal of Climate, 37 (21).
pp. 5543-5559.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0470.1
Patterson, M.
O'Reilly, C.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
and
Woollings, T.
(2024)
Disentangling North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere coupling using circulation analogues.
Journal of Climate, 37 (14).
pp. 3791-3805.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0602.1
Zhao, A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8300-5872
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Sutton, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
Lai, M. W. K.
Mecking, J. V.
Yeager, S.
and
Petit, T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7922-9363
(2024)
Large diversity in AMOC internal variability across NEMO-based climate models.
Climate Dynamics, 62 (5).
pp. 3355-3374.
ISSN 1432-0894
doi:
10.1007/s00382-023-07069-y
Kim, W. M.
Ruprich-Robert, Y.
Zhao, A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8300-5872
Yeager, S.
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2024)
North Atlantic response to observed North Atlantic oscillation surface heat flux in three climate models.
Journal of Climate, 37 (5).
pp. 1777-1796.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0301.1
Weisheimer, A.
Baker, L. H.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488
Bröcker, J.
Garfinkel, C. I.
Hardiman, S. C.
Hodson, D. L. R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700
Palmer, T. N.
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Scaife, A. A.
Screen, J. A.
Shepherd, T. G.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968
Smith, D. N.
and
Sutton, R. T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
(2024)
The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (3).
E651-E659.
ISSN 1520-0477
doi:
10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1
Zhang, M.
Dong, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911
Schiemann, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2024)
Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes.
Climate Dynamics, 62.
pp. 1887-1907.
ISSN 0930-7575
doi:
10.1007/s00382-023-07001-4
(Zhang, M., Dong, B., Schiemann, R. et al. Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes. Clim Dyn (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07001-4)
Senapati, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5029-9731
O'Reilly, C. H.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2024)
Pivotal role of mixed-layer depth in Tropical Atlantic Multidecadal Variability.
Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (15).
e2024GL110057.
ISSN 1944-8007
doi:
10.1029/2024GL110057
2023
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Sutton, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
Menary, M. B.
and
Lai, M. W.K.
(2023)
Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 381 (2262).
20220194.
ISSN 1471-2962
doi:
10.1098/rsta.2022.0194
Petit, T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7922-9363
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Ferreira, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-9774
and
Jackson, L. C.
(2023)
Understanding the sensitivity of the North Atlantic subpolar overturning in different resolution versions of HadGEM3-GC3.1.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 128 (10).
e2023JC019672.
ISSN 2169-9291
doi:
10.1029/2023JC019672
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Ndiaye, C. D.
Song, C.
and
Turner, A. G.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876
(2023)
CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability.
Environmental Research Letters, 18 (9).
094002.
ISSN 1748-9326
doi:
10.1088/1748-9326/acea96
Marcheggiani, A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3571-608X
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Bracegirdle, T. J.
and
Smith, D.
(2023)
Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter.
Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8).
e2022GL102071.
ISSN 1944-8007
doi:
10.1029/2022GL102071
O'Reilly, C. H.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8630-1650
Patterson, M.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Hodson, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700
and
Ruprich-Robert, Y.
(2023)
Challenges with interpreting the impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using SST-restoring experiments.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6.
14.
ISSN 2397-3722
doi:
10.1038/s41612-023-00335-0
2022
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Menary, M. B.
Sutton, R. T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
Mecking, J.
Gregory, J. M.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-8644
Jones, C.
Sinha, B.
Stevens, D. P.
and
Wilcox, L. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493
(2022)
The role of anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the 1850-1985 strengthening of the AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations.
Journal of Climate, 35 (20).
pp. 3243-3263.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0124.1
Hodson, D. L. R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700
Bretonnière, P.-A.
Cassou, C.
Davini, P.
Klingaman, N. P.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2927-9303
Lohmann, K.
Lopez-Parages, J.
Martín-Rey, M.
Moine, M.-P.
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Putrasahan, D. A.
Roberts, C. D.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Ruprich-Robert, Y.
Sanchez-Gomez, E.
Seddon, J.
and
Senan, R.
(2022)
Coupled climate response to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a multi-model multi-resolution ensemble.
Climate Dynamics, 59.
pp. 805-836.
ISSN 0930-7575
doi:
10.1007/s00382-022-06157-9
Dimdore-Miles, O.
Gray, L.
Osprey, S.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Sutton, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
and
Sinha, B.
(2022)
Interactions between the stratospheric polar vortex and Atlantic circulation on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 (7).
pp. 4867-4893.
ISSN 1680-7316
doi:
10.5194/acp-22-4867-2022
Jackson, L. C.
Biastoch, A.
Buckley, M. W.
Desbruyères, D. G.
Frajka-Williams, E.
Moat, B.
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2022)
The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980.
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 3.
pp. 241-254.
ISSN 2662-138X
doi:
10.1038/s43017-022-00263-2
Lai, W. K. M.
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Wilcox, L. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493
and
Dunstone, N.
(2022)
Mechanisms of internal Atlantic multidecadal variability in HadGEM3-GC3.1 at two different resolutions.
Journal of Climate, 35 (4).
pp. 1365-1383.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0281.1
2021
Bracegirdle, T. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8868-4739
Lu, H.
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2021)
Early-winter North Atlantic low-level jet latitude biases in climate models: implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages.
Environmental Research Letters, 17 (1).
ISSN 1748-9326
doi:
10.1088/1748-9326/ac417f
Dittus, A. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9598-6869
Hawkins, E.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9477-3677
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Smith, D. M.
and
Wilcox, L. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493
(2021)
Drivers of recent North Pacific decadal variability: the role of aerosol forcing.
Earth's Future, 9 (12).
e2021EF002249.
ISSN 2328-4277
doi:
10.1029/2021EF002249
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Dunstone, N. J.
and
Turner, A. G.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876
(2021)
Skilful seasonal predictions of Global Monsoon summer precipitation with DePreSys3.
Environmental Research Letters, 16 (10).
ISSN 1748-9326
doi:
10.1088/1748-9326/ac2a65
Menary, M. B.
Mignot, J.
and
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2021)
Skilful decadal predictions of subpolar North Atlantic SSTs using CMIP model-analogues.
Environmental Research Letters, 16 (6).
ISSN 1748-9326
doi:
10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb
Ruprich-Robert, Y.
Moreno-Chamarro, E.
Levine, X.
Bellucci, A.
Cassou, C.
Castruccio, F.
Davini, P.
Eade, R.
Gastineau, G.
Hermanson, L.
Hodson, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700
Lohmann, K.
Lopez-Parages, J.
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Nicoli, D.
Qasmi, S.
Roberts, C. D.
Sanchez-Gomez, E.
Danabasoglu, G.
Dunstone, N.
Martin-Rey, M.
Msadek, R.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Smith, D.
and
Tourigny, E.
(2021)
Impacts of Atlantic multidecadal variability on the tropical Pacific: a multi-model study.
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 4 (1).
33.
ISSN 2397-3722
doi:
10.1038/s41612-021-00188-5
Ortega, P.
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Menary, M.
Sutton, R. T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
Blaker, A.
Germe, A.
Hirschi, J. J.-M.
Sinha, B.
Hermanson, L.
and
Yeager, S.
(2021)
Labrador Sea subsurface density as a precursor of multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model study.
Earth System Dynamics, 12 (2).
pp. 419-438.
ISSN 2190-4987
doi:
10.5194/esd-12-419-2021
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Dong, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911
and
Hodson, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700
(2021)
Role of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in modulating East Asian climate.
Climate Dynamics, 56.
pp. 381-398.
ISSN 0930-7575
doi:
10.1007/s00382-020-05477-y
2020
Polo, I.
Haines, K.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2768-2374
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
and
Thomas, C.
(2020)
Can the boundary profiles at 26° N be used to extract buoyancy-forced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation signals?
Ocean Science, 16 (5).
pp. 1067-1088.
ISSN 1812-0784
doi:
10.5194/os-16-1067-2020
Sinha, B.
Sévellec, F.
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
and
Nurser, G.
(2020)
Surging of global surface temperature due to decadal legacy of ocean heat uptake.
Journal of Climate, 33 (18).
pp. 8025-8045.
ISSN 1520-0442
doi:
10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0874.1
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Aksenov, Y.
Bracegirdle, T. J.
Dimdore-Miles, O.
Griffiths, P. T.
Grosvenor, D. P.
Hodson, D. L.R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700
Keeble, J.
MacIntosh, C.
Megann, A.
Osprey, S.
Povey, A. C.
Schröder, D.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2351-4306
Yang, M.
Archibald, A. T.
Carslaw, K. S.
Gray, L.
Jones, C.
Kerridge, B.
Knappett, D.
Kuhlbrodt, T.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2328-6729
Russo, M.
Sellar, A.
Siddans, R.
Sinha, B.
Sutton, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583
Walton, J.
and
Wilcox, L. J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493
(2020)
The evaluation of the North Atlantic climate system in UKESM1 historical simulations for CMIP6.
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12 (9).
e2020MS002126.
ISSN 1942-2466
doi:
10.1029/2020MS002126
Dunstone, N.
Smith, D.
Yeager, S.
Danabasoglu, G.
Monerie, P.-A.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559
Hermanson, L.
Eade, R.
Ineson, S.
Robson, J. I.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
Scaife, A. A.
and
Ren, H.-L.
(2020)
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10.1029/2006GL026210
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