Nowcasting Indian GDP

Nowcasting Indian GDP
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Nowcasting Indian GDP
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Author
Listed:
Daniela Bragoli
(Universita Cattolica)
Jack Fosten
(University of East Anglia)
Registered:
Daniela Bragoli
Jack Fosten
Abstract
We propose a nowcasting model for the Indian real GDP growth rate which uses the flow of relevant information to update predictions on a daily basis and can serve as a timely barometer to track the Indian development process. There are several challenges faced when nowcasting GDP in developing economies such as India. The first challenge is to proxy im- portant missing variables such as international trade in the service sector. Our novel solution augments a baseline model with series on US and Euro-area output which improves predictions, particularly during the 2008-2009 global crisis. The second challenge is the impact of sizeable revisions to the GDP data. We construct a new series for real-time Indian GDP using press releases from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), finding that data revisions have a non-trivial influence on our results. Therefore, caution should be taken when evaluating predictions using the preliminary GDP release.
Suggested Citation
Daniela Bragoli & Jack Fosten, 2016.
Nowcasting Indian GDP
,"
University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series
2016-06, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
Handle:
RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2016_06
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
Daniela Bragoli & Jack Fosten, 2018.
Nowcasting Indian GDP
,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(2), pages 259-282, April.
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Nowcasting BRIC+M in real time
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Jack Fosten & Shaoni Nandi, 2023.
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Chien-jung Ting & Yi-Long Hsiao, 2022.
Nowcasting the GDP in Taiwan and the Real-Time Tourism Data
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Pérez, Fernando, 2018.
Nowcasting Peruvian GDP using Leading Indicators and Bayesian Variable Selection
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Nowcasting India’s Quarterly GDP Growth: A Factor-Augmented Time-Varying Coefficient Regression Model (FA-TVCRM)
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Journal of Quantitative Economics
, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 21(1), pages 213-234, March.
Pradeep Mishra & Khder Alakkari & Mostafa Abotaleb & Pankaj Kumar Singh & Shilpi Singh & Monika Ray & Soumitra Sankar Das & Umme Habibah Rahman & Ali J. Othman & Nazirya Alexandrovna Ibragimova & Gulf, 2021.
Nowcasting India Economic Growth Using a Mixed-Data Sampling (MIDAS) Model (Empirical Study with Economic Policy Uncertainty–Consumer Prices Index)
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Kaustubh, Kaustubh & Ranjan, Abhishek, 2025.
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Macroeconomic news and market reaction: Surprise indexes meet nowcasting
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Working Papers ECARES
2018-06, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2024.
Lessons from nowcasting GDP across the world
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, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão (ed.),
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Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023.
Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World
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International Finance Discussion Papers
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International Journal of Forecasting
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Alina Stundziene & Vaida Pilinkiene & Jurgita Bruneckiene & Andrius Grybauskas & Mantas Lukauskas & Irena Pekarskiene, 2024.
Future directions in nowcasting economic activity: A systematic literature review
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Dibyendu Maiti & Naveen Kumar & Debajit Jha & Soumyadipta Sarkar, 2024.
Post-COVID Recovery and Long-Run Forecasting of Indian GDP with Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model (FECM)
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Andreini, Paolo & Hasenzagl, Thomas & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Senftleben-König, Charlotte & Strohsal, Till, 2023.
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Fosten, Jack & Nandi, Shaoni, 2025.
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More about this item
Keywords
JEL
classification:
C38
- Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
C53
- Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
E37
- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O11
- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O47
- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following
NEP Reports
NEP-MAC-2016-07-09
(Macroeconomics)
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