NSSL’s Grand Scientific Challenges
About NSSL
NSSL’s Grand Scientific Challenges
NSSL’s Grand Scientific Challenges
NSSL’s science strategy is built around six grand scientific challenges, followed by a strategy to improve the workplace itself. These grand challenges represent problems that will be difficult to address but will have substantial or even game-changing impacts. Here we identify what the challenge is, and why it is important, and how we will address it.
GSC 1: Develop reliable probabilistic guidance products
The improving skill of numerical models (particularly convective resolving model improvements and ensemble based probabilistic forecasts) combined with emerging model post-processing techniques and model diagnostic tools, will be the dominant source of better weather information for the NWS during the next decade. In addition, the assimilation of higher resolution satellite-derived data sets in the GOES-R era will enhance the accuracy, reliability, and value of model output information for a broad spectrum of forecasting services. NSSL will develop reliable probabilistic guidance products for prediction of the development and evolution of severe convection, including intensity changes, storm interactions, upscale growth, and attendant societal impacts. We aim to attain the goal of the
Warn-on-Forecast (WoF)
program to provide NWS forecasters with the probabilistic guidance needed to extend lead-times for severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings out to one hour with reduced false alarms. NSSL plans to develop and implement into operations a convection-allowing atmospheric ensemble prediction system (EPS) using advanced data assimilation and improved model physics to predict individual thunderstorm character and interactions. In parallel, we will build a prototype sub-kilometer resolution numerical simulation system to improve understanding of the atmospheric processes at work for tornado-cyclone scale phenomena and their representation in numerical models.
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NSSL forecast tool development
NSSL warning tool development
Left:
An ensemble of storm-scale NWP models predicts the path of a potentially tornadic supercell during the next hour. The ensemble is used to create probabilistic tornado guidance.
Right:
Probabilistic tornado guidance: Forecast look on track, storm circulation (hook echo) is tracking along centerline of highest tornadic probabilities
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Left:
An ensemble of storm-scale NWP models predicts the path of a potentially tornadic supercell during the next hour. The ensemble is used to create probabilistic tornado guidance.
Right:
Probabilistic tornado guidance: Forecast look on track, storm circulation (hook echo) is tracking along centerline of highest tornadic probabilities
GSC 2: Produce enhanced capabilities for WSR-88D
NSSL will produce enhanced capabilities for WSR-88D radars to continue to meet evolving requirements through its end-of-life, and also develop radar replacement technologies leading to an NWS acquisition/deployment program by 2030. It is necessary to enhance WSR-88D utility while addressing this aging operational radar technology, current gaps in radar coverage, and longstanding limits of 14-minute average tornado lead time with ~75% false alarm rates. NSSL will build and assess
phased array radar technologies
with dual-polarization capability, assess gap-filling strategies, and design advanced radar signal processing to optimize radar advancements. We will also work on breakthrough methods for
dual polarization
data assimilation for better microphysical representation in multi-phase hydrometeor environments, and improved algorithms to derive geophysical variables (e.g., hydrometeor classification) with greater accuracy.
GSC 3: Reliably predict flash flooding
About NSSL
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History
NSSL @ 60
Awards
Scientific Challenges
Lab Review 2021
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Visitor Info
Strategic Plans
NSSL Draft Strategic Plan, 2021-2030
(PDF)
OAR Strategic Plan
(PDF)
NOAA Strategic Plan
Department of Commerce Strategic Plan
Related Links
Warn-on-Forecast Project
NSSL Radar Research: Phased Array Radar
NSSL Radar Research: Dual Polarization
MRMS
FACETs
Weather Ready Nation
Bite-Sized Science: Dual Polarization Technology
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Bite-Sized Science: Phased Array Radar
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Bite-Sized Science:
FACETs
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