(PDF) EUC Working Paper No. 8

EUC Working Paper No. 8 Working Paper No. 8, August 2012 Still the “pivot”: Russia’s self-conception and view of the euro crisis as perceived in public opinion and the Rossiiskaya Gazeta, 2011-12 Barnard Turner The Russian Consulate-General in Shanghai, China ABSTRACT In his influential and disputed 1904 lecture, “The Geographical Pivot of History,” Halford Mackinder argued that the Russian heartland was the fulcrum of many historical and geostrategic currents across Eurasian space. While the thesis has been thought surpassed by recent technological advances in transportation, it serves as a useful heuristic device to open certain thematic lines of analysis apparent in the presentation of the ongoing “EUrocrisis” by the country’s newspaper of record, the Rossiiskaya Gazeta. Keywords Euro crisis; Russia: public opinion; perceptions of the EU. The EU Centre in Singapore is a partnership of 13 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Still the “pivot”: Russia’s self-conception Such a reconceptualisation would be in the spirit of the IMF’s Articles of Association. Under Article IV, a and view of the euro crisis as perceived in member state “undertakes to collaborate with the public opinion and the Rossiiskaya Fund and other members to assure orderly exchange Gazeta, 2011-12 arrangements and to promote a stable system of exchange rates.” Such collaboration should of course be expected to be easier for those member states BARNARD TURNER 1 already pursuing effective (if only partial and not always efficacious) currency coordination. It should ensure the provision and continuance of “a “Schräg wird Nahes seit je am besten gesehen” [The framework that facilitates the exchange of goods, near at hand has always best been seen at an angle]. services, and capital among countries, and that - Ernst Bloch, 1929 sustains sound economic growth, [because] a principal objective is the continuing development of the orderly underlying conditions that are necessary Introduction for financial and economic stability.” Mid-2012, the Fund report on “Euro Area Policies” pinpointed the Both professional and public attention has been so need for greater integration and consolidation in fixated on the “Euro crisis” over the past few years banking and sovereign funds across the eurozone. The that a reflection on its development as a serious report stresses not only the expected, and long absent, threat to the currency, or even to the EU itself, is fiscal integration but its introduction in tandem with timely. However, although one cannot of course “ideas of a political union and stronger central discount the severity of the potential scenarios, these governance with more risk sharing”, that is more are not yet at the level of Joseph Conrad’s “choice of Europe, a greater sense of solidarity. nightmares” and some might even be ascribed to the birth-pains of the Union. It is still early days yet for the The clouds may yet lift over the zone, even if the Union – in its current configuration, which marks an stormy seas of a “Grexodus” might already be entelechy of sorts, it is not even a decade old. Its gathering, and even if the EU institutions do not seem neighbour, Russia, in its present “post-imperial” able to more than continually defer it. The maelstrom borders is scarcely two decades old (Radzikhovsky continues to circle; the unusually prescient Larry 2011). There are still many levels at which Elliott opined mid-2011 that “We are less than harmonisation must operate and doing so takes time, halfway through the crisis that began on 9 August forbearance and patience. The European Central Bank 2007” and “That crisis has just entered a dangerous has not been able to take an undeniably positive role, new phase” (Elliott, “Global financial crisis”). As the yet a longer-term view would note that the First Bank crisis continues to play itself out, lashing by mid-2012 of the United States faced fierce opposition and at the doors of even the most secure eurozone scepticism. With Hamilton’s sinking fund, the essence economies and spilling over to affect growth in other of all providential and prudent debt repayment, debt parts of the world, the threat seems to be levels dropped for several decades (only to resurface intensifying. By mid-2012, with the International at the Civil War). Since there has of late been a more Monetary Fund’s report (12/181) on “Euro Area pronounced discussion of such a possibility for the Policies,” it was becoming clear that “the euro area eurozone, even of a generic Stadtsparkasse or British crisis [had] reached a new and critical stage.” “Co-op” model, parts of the European project may yet be saved, even if the euro needs to be reconfigured. For an attempt to chart these developments, the first half of 2011 (with the Arab Spring, the Libyan conflict and Fukushima) forms a useful watershed period. In August 2011, Larry Elliott detected the culmination of 1 Barnard Turner is Senior Fellow at the EU Centre in one phase of this still developing crisis: the process of Singapore, and Associate Professor at the National “morphing of a private debt crisis into a sovereign University of Singapore (NUS), where he is also Academic debt crisis” which was completed when on 5 August Convenor of the European Studies Programme. The views 2011, S&P downgraded the US’s debt from AAA expressed in this working paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EU Centre in (Elliott, “Global financial crisis”). The first months of Singapore. 2011 show “the end of the beginning”, the fruition of 1 EUC Working Paper No. 8 old scenarios and the blossoming of others which, a geographically and (since data from 2011 are here year or so later, have themselves produced an mainly used) temporally. Since Russia has now joined impatience with the old pieties (contagion, the Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) and the World Trade containment) and a sense that even if the Organization (WTO), its relatively under- researched perpetrators may have emanated from over-zealous viewpoint—and the abiding pertinence to this of the Europe the solutions are stymied because—again, country’s “pivotal” status as argued by Sir Halford J. citing Elliott — “the current crisis is the result of the Mackinder in a 1904 lecture both revised and reviled imbalances in the global economy, which in turn over the years — on the unfolding financial crisis are reflect differences in productivity and instructive in assessing the country’s global role and competitiveness” (Elliott, “Greece election” 17 June stature in the 21st century (Mackinder, “The 2012). Here of course, his view is reminiscent of those Geographical Pivot of History”). of Kishore Mahbubani, Luc van Langenhove and others – if such drive is absent in Europe, it is plentiful in certain places in Asia. The playing out of the whole The NCRE survey shows that a global mindset is euro-drama over the last 2-3 years and its perception beginning to establish itself in two of the world’s in Asia, and in particular in Russia form the subject of largest countries, Russia and China, with a remarkable this paper. symmetry between the perceptions of Russia/China and the EU, and to a limited extent the US. In China, 3% thought Russia unimportant and 89% important; Perceptions 3% thought the US unimportant and 88% important; and 4% thought the EU unimportant and 89% In all of this increasingly fractious debate, perceptions important. While patterns of global trade might let us — based on image, branding and historical ties — infer that all markets are important to the Chinese, matter. The first half of 2011 is also of research lower figures were recorded for Japan (56%) and interest because comprehensive newspaper data are France (64%; in comparison, 67% thought the UK available from the “Perceptions of the EU in Asia” important and 76% Germany). In Russia, 9% thought project organised by the National Centre for Research Europe/the EU unimportant and 88% important; 9% on Europe (NCRE) in New Zealand and coordinated thought China unimportant and 86% important (only through the Asia-Europe Foundation (ASEF). 2 These 75% thought the US important). Whether such data sets were helpfully supplemented by public “importance” should be gauged politically or opinion surveys carried out in early 2012 as part of economically, or a mixture of both, is left rather the same project, and which can be seen as open. 3 While China is now Russia’s largest trading complementary to the corresponding period the partner, Germany is still a very close second, and previous year given that such opinions are of Russia’s trade with just that country and the generally a more lasting nature than transient Netherlands combined would far outstrip (by some newspaper commentary but to a certain extent (not in 50% more) the envisaged growth of Russia-China itself to be exaggerated) are modified and in rare trade. Not surprisingly, then, Russians view Germany cases even shaped by them. The data set produced by as more important than do respondents in any this ongoing project, here used as background for my country from Asia included in the survey (88%). While comments, yields insightful results, and it is to generally across the Asian countries selected, complement the project’s overarching findings that I Europe/the EU is seen as some 19% more important aim here, focusing on the Russian data. With its over the next ten years than Germany (by 82% and imbrications within European economic and energy 63%), this distinction is minimal in the assessment of systems and yet with its own, somewhat detached Russian respondents (88% and 84%). Because of its agenda clearly in mind, Russia allows insights into the proximity and acceptance of Russian energy exports, unfolding European situation from an oblique angle, the EU would be expected to be more important to Russia than to many other Asian states (which can modify their trading profiles to Asia itself more readily 2 I am grateful to the NCRE and especially to Olga Gulyaeva, researcher on the Russian data, for making her data set 3 available to me; this was helpful in mapping out the early With a similar openness, Bersick et al note that Europeans stages of this paper. I am also grateful to Loke Hoe Yeong, rank “the future importance” of China at 7.4 and Russia at researcher on the Project and at the EU Centre in 6.9 (Indonesia is ranked at 5.3 and the USA 7.8 [Bersick, Singapore, for his insights. Bruter 275]). 2 EUC Working Paper No. 8 than can Russia), but the value for the EU has not two thirds across the ten countries5 claim that they risen that much; the value for Germany, however, regularly access media for foreign news, and 52% can rises from 63% to 84%. Conversely, even if declining be inferred to read foreign news in newspapers to the bottom of the super league, and only of regularly (more than once a week), only 56% had average importance to Russia (59%), Britain is still heard of the European Commission, and 59% of the considered to be more important to many of the European Parliament. The interest in foreign news, for surveyed countries than Germany (70% thinking the more than half the population, does not extend to the Atlantic nation important in the next ten years as institutions of the EU; this should of course come as opposed to 65% for Europe’s largest economy). Trade, no surprise, as one might expect something similar for then, is not the only consideration and Russian a survey of Europeans which asked about ECOWAS, exceptionalism among the surveyed Asian countries, MERCOSUR or ASEAN. The argument that the EU is albeit expected, is noteworthy. the world’s largest trading bloc/single market is insufficient for people to take an active, personal Scatter characterises many of the NCRE public opinion interest in it, and European expectations that interest findings, especially when certain rather specialist should be higher is perhaps mere hubris. questions about the EU as an “actor” across various domains are asked, and the findings can be therefore The perceptions sometimes rather give insights into, rather tenuous.4 For example, high information costs or reinforce external stereotypes about, the surveyed and low engagement or interest levels would make countries and therefore conform to the standard view any informed opinion from average Asians difficult to of the shock of alterity: confrontation with the other assess in topics such as the significance of the EU’s forces a moral choice (along the lines of rejection or dealings with the Middle East or the USA. There is acceptance and integration as seen in the works of perhaps a certain politicized hubris perhaps in even Emmanuel Levinas) or at least the “performative” asking such questions, and nothing really surprising obligation to assess one’s own social and individual that, beyond the inference that the respondent parameters (Peeren and Horstkotte 10). 73% of Thais, gathered that there was supposed to be something 70% of Russians and 69% of Malaysians saw the EU as significant about the question and therefore a modern, but only 42% of Japanese, 39% of New response in the low end was perhaps not “right” or Zealanders and 35% of Australians. 63% of Indians and that since the USA, China or carbon emissions 12% of Japanese saw the EU as “efficient” (the reduction, which appeared in the question, is average was a low 34%). Yet on occasion the results indubitably important, something about the EU’s seem a little off from these stereotypes: those two relation it them must by implication also be countries (Australia and New Zealand) with long- important, little can be judged from the findings standing patterns of European immigration are both which would prevail against standard margin of error at the low end of the range (24% and 23% perimeters. That so few (on average, some 0.12%) respectively) of those countries which see the EU as answered “don’t know” to such questions implies “likeable” (meaning, I suppose, that the respondent perhaps merely that they were happy to hazard a detected some affinity with the population [i.e. guess, knowing clearly what was required of the Europeans] rather than with the institutions [the question and the search terms within it. European Union as such]). Only China (16%) thought the EU less likeable, the average being 35%; Russia In assessing these survey results, it is important to (46%) follows South Korea (49%) and India (55%) in distinguish trends and reactions. Impressions of apparently most liking the EU. Europe as a category preform those of the European Union, and the two categories cannot be meaningfully While the NCRE survey highlights the role of the conceptualised and bundled together. While some media in shaping public opinion, a person’s views of an Other, especially one as distant, distinct and 4 diverse as Asia (or, to a slightly less extent, Europe), For example, the comment by Bersick et al that Europeans are prefigured in random spasmodic but enduring see North America as a currently more “important” region ways through education, personal contacts, family than Asia does not seem to be substantiated, given connections, etc. While EuropeAsia migration is not standard margin of error parameters, by the data which show that the former was given a 7.3 (out of 10) rating and 5 the latter 7; the notion of “importance” should also here be Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New nuanced more (Bersick, Bruter et al. 276). Zealand, Russia, Singapore and Thailand 3 EUC Working Paper No. 8 yet so developed, Asia (especially West and South Gazeta (typical for the Russian print media tracked) Asia)Europe migration is a long-standing trend, takes the EU as a main focus, and this is far greater with some 8% for example of the UK population born than that in comparable East Asian print news (which outside Europe. Thus while the EU in the eyes of Asia averages something like 28% [Bersick and Holland survey shows only a low personal connection with 2012]), the attention to the EU has to compete with Europe, even for the two “settler colonies” Australia much other foreign news in the Gazeta, especially of and New Zealand, as for example only some 7.6% had course from the USA on the one hand and Asia on the travelled there, conversely personal ties of recent other. Much news that emanates from Europe, of immigrants to Europe would give more substance to course, has little to do with the EU as such, a point fleeting impressions of at least one part of the vast rather elided in some of the NCRE public opinion Asian continent for a significantly greater proportion findings. 6 While then an article may have “more of the population. Interculturalism thus cuts both Europe” in it, the particular newspaper issue itself ways, and the polarisation (Asia/Europe) in the contextualises this attention from a global survey, admittedly a consequence of the perspective. Russia’s self-conception (and abiding intercontinental dialogic process of ASEM itself, is actuality) as a global player give this “official” organ a helpfully nuanced by the Russian data which, as the broad scope across the continents and a marked country itself, cut both ways, allowing reflection on proportion of the EU news (that is, the news which both AsiaEurope and EuropeAsia perceptions. focuses on EU countries) does not concern the Union, Given that interculturalism is a rising norm rather its crisis, or its main institution. Much of the news sidelined in intergovernmentalist, political “elite” therefore could be classified as of social or general driven international relations, such a dimension can interest rather than as “political” as such, with the also usefully be uncovered in assessing the Russian obvious proviso that the largest proportion of news data. emanating from Europe in the period studied is about the financial crisis (but not exclusively so, as is demonstrated in the following paragraphs). This Newspapers: the Rossiiskaya Gazeta would fit the profile revealed by the NCRE Public Opinion survey that habitual readers of foreign news The NCRE project gives an overview of several main are more likely to be older (100% of those over 65 fall news outlets in Russia; my present purpose is to focus into this category) and retired. on just one, Russia’s governmental newspaper of record, the Rossiiskaya Gazeta. Even if the Gazeta has The Gazeta’s view of the euro crisis from early 2011 only moderate circulation, its stature, its representation of a judicious selection of opinion and Despondency has so clouded European horizons, even policy makers in the capital and beyond (making in yielding to resignation and indifference among those large part a separate “elite interview” section of data less affected (at least as yet), has begun so to unsettle gathering, as in the NCRE project, somewhat other parts of the world, and faith in summitry has gratuitous) and its balanced, conservative views give it been so eroded that it is somehow refreshing to read the hallmarks of authority in delineating educated the concerns, almost as if those of an earlier opinion. Howard Davis and Anna Sosnovkaya (2009) generation, of the Gazeta in early 2011. The claim that the Gazeta “is an ideal model of newspaper shows itself consistently patient, broad interpretation of events from the point of view of the and above all restrained in its approach to the crisis, federal government.” The Perceptions survey shows delivering its news in a dry, acerbic, almost that the Gazeta has the greatest number of reports by metaphorless style expected of a governmental its own and local correspondents, and makes minimal newspaper of record and which makes an approach use of international wires; not surprisingly, in through discourse analysis unrewarding (for example contrast, the Finnish-owned, English language “expat” Musolff 2004 and Zbierska-Sawala 2004). Examples Moscow Times avails itself of western wires, mostly notably Thomson Reuters. While Interfax, founded in 6 Readers even with no Russian can test these claims by 1989, is the most cited Russian news agency (Interfax accessing the daily online world news section of the Gazeta 2012), the Gazeta uses more the longer-established, (http://www.rg.ru/mir/) and clicking on the various parts of traditional ITAR-TASS sources. As the NCRE project the world map to come to lists of the most recent reports. found and at least judging by the foreign coverage in A photo by each item is generally enough to get an idea of the Gazeta, while some 58% of EU-related news in the the article’s topic. 4 EUC Working Paper No. 8 such as the world’s currencies being “hostages to the (and hence the ability to sell products either dollar” (25 January), Greece “holding the euro to domestically or internationally) (Kykol, ransom”(2 August), or the metaphorical value of place “Оптимистическая рецессия”, 27 January 2011). In deixis (“north…south”) in every country and region an article published the previous day, Kykol highlighted by Ruslan Greenberg director, Institute of mentioned European debt problems only in passing, Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences to to focus more on the longer-term drone of the underscore a point that regional imbalances are not seemingly intractable US debt (“Заложники доллара”, confined to the eurozone (Zykova “Греция”, 2 August 26 January 2011). 2011), become noteworthy because they are so rare. While in turn EU leaders showed melancholic or even Even in June 2011, in the face of a tense and choleric dispositions, well-placed commentators and worsening situation on the streets of Athens and with officials in the Gazeta were more phlegmatic, even a series of general strikes to be expected, the Gazeta sanguine, at times even apparently sympathetic to the tempered its rather critical tone towards the trades plight of the EU’s administration and seeing the crisis unions with an assessment of the impact of such as much as of managerial connections as financial or unrest on the tourist season (a theme of articles macroeconomic in the widest sense. about Greece on the 16th, 27th and 29th). On 29 June, the Gazeta both reported on the 48-hour strike in Throughout early 2011, the newspaper maintained a Greece and gave a lengthy, chatty interview with position that the crisis was serious but manageable. Hillary Clinton on the occasion of a meeting with While, during the first trimester of 2011, the crisis was Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. On 2 August, relatively quiet, the Gazeta gave prominence to a the Gazeta published quoted Ruslan Greenberg as range of stories concerning the EU member states, saying that the euro is still the world’s second reserve from a pharmaceutical scandal in France (20 January currency; it and the dollar would be there “in earnest 2011), an overview of street stall licensing in and for the long-term” (Zykova “Греция”). comparison to new legislation in Moscow (20 January), to the new Russian ambassador’s visit, in a state Even on 9 December 2011, when Nikita Maslennikov coach, to Buckingham Palace to present his of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) in Saint credentials (April 2011). A burgeoning financial crisis Petersburg reminded a Moscow forum that 45% of of game-changing proportions did not seem highly Russian currency reserves are in euros, and when the likely, although many commentators expressed forum discussions were published under the alarmist concerns. Yet Larry Elliott posted a comment about heading “Is there life after the euro?”, participants’ the Davos Economic Forum in which he saw signs that conclusions were more speculative than doom-laden. the world economy was “settling” and that any Maslennikov was quoted as describing talk of the warning signs were mostly about the US budget euro’s collapse as “non-scientific fantasy”. In using deficit; he did not mention Europe once (“Will Davos such a term, he was joined by company director heed”, 26 January 2011). Alexey V. Ulyukaev, Deputy Avgan Mikaelyan who also called such a collapse Chairman of the Bank of Russia, the Federation’s “fantastic” (that is, highly improbable), and Moscow Central Bank (and a graduate of the Université Pierre- HSE economist Varely Mironov who called a break-up Mendès-France, Grenoble) expressed in an article in the near term “hardly likely” because of measures published in mid-January his view that the euro was announced and foreseen by the European Central still relatively strong, that oscillations were to be Bank and other sources. There would of course expected and that the currency might even emerge however be some, but limited and manageable from the crisis stronger than ever (Zykova, “Рубль”, repercussions if the scenario did play itself out. The oil 12 January 2012). On the 27 January, under the price might fall, and the fall in demand would affect headline “An optimistic recession,” the Gazeta other sectors of the Russian economy, for example reported on a Pricewaterhouse Cooper’s survey of white goods exports to the EU, leading to layoffs with world business leaders published for the Davos Forum not even the certainty that the ruble would fall less which saw Russian executives more optimistic than drastically than the euro and hence Russians would their counterparts elsewhere in the world. While the find European holidays cheaper (Panin, “Есть ли Russians seemed more concerned about increases in жизнь”). Here, since so few Russians seem to have corporate taxation, world business executives were been able to travel to Europe, the participants were more troubled by deflationary, austerity measures showing their own middle-class status. According to which would curb investment and economic growth both the NCRE opinion poll and a 2007 5 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Всероссийский центр изучения общественного Кэтрин Эштон (Catherine Ashton) gets some 70 hits, мнения (ВЦИОМ) (All-Russian Public Opinion mostly about the situation in Libya and the “Arab Research Centre) poll, only some 8% of Russians Spring” countries; yet Хиллари Клинтон (Hillary (about as many as Indians) had ever been to Europe Clinton) produces 119. Generally, when a contrastive, even if 19% expressed a desire to visit France (All- “Western” view is sought on matters closer to home Russian Public Opinion Research Centre, “Life (Belarus, Ukraine), Clinton rather than Ashton is Abroad”). Little had therefore occurred to affect the quoted. Surprisingly perhaps, Жан-Клод Трише (Jean- Gazeta’s view of early February 2011 that Russia Claude Trichet, of the European Central Bank) would find a niche for itself in the “post-crisis” global discloses only some dozen items. In comparison, a economy, even if exactly “how precisely all the search for likely references to the following national problems will be solved” (как именно будут leaders garnered a range of results: Барак Обама решаться все проблемы) remains “unknown” (Kykol, (Barack Obama) 455 articles across the six month “Новый взгляд”, 15 February 2011). period (Jan-June 2011); Николя Саркози (Nicolas Sarkozy) 193; Ангела Меркель (Angela Merkel) 117, The euro crisis then would affect Russia, but indirectly only a few more than Дэвид Кэмерон (David as any longer-term recession would dampen energy Cameron) 108; премьер Греции Г. Папандреу 8 demand and thus affect Russia’s growth. In the latter (Greek PM George Papandreou), only 30; Виктор half of June 2011, when much hinged on the public Янукович (Viktor Yanukovich) 125 (Юлия Тимошенко, and political acceptance of the Greek “mid-term plan” Yulia Timoshenko 30); Ху Цзиньтао (Hu Jintao) 64; of increased austerity upon which the second rescue Манмохан Сингх (Manmohan Singh) 6; Дилма package depended, the Gazeta published daily stories Руссефф (Dilma Rouseff) 5; and Стивен Харпер about Greece, on three days two such articles, and (Stephen Harper) 5. Clearly, European leaders need to even on two days (the 16th and 17th) three. However, propose measures or even intervene directly (for while the IMF and the ratings agencies are frequently example, militarily) on the international scene other seen as actors, and the individual countries affected than respond to the financial crisis in order to get (most notably of course Greece, but to a certain noticed by Gazeta reporters. One might also infer extent Portugal) are often highlighted, the European from the list that that the Greek cabinet is not seen as Union itself and its institutions (with the exception of a main actor in its own land. course of the European Central Bank) rarely appear as agents in those articles which (using the Gazeta’s own search engine) can be loosely grouped under the The EU seen as an assemblage of divergent and heading (сюжет) “Debt crisis of the European Union” diverging nation states (долговой кризис Евросоюза [EC]). Given then that some 100 articles over the first six months of 2011 The EU is more often seen as a context or field of can loosely be so tagged, 7 the prominence of EU action rather than a source of action itself, except on institutional actors is relatively low. While Жозе those occasions where a rather generically defined Мануэль Баррозу (Jose Manuel Barroso) yields a “EU” prescribes actions, takes sanctions, etc., that is respectable 58 articles, a search for Херман Ван when it can be seen as a source of proscription or Ромпей (Herman van Rompuy) yields roughly half this negative action. Thus the positive moves by the number (31 items, although again some of these are Commission and the Council to resolve a burgeoning overlaps), one of which repeats from Newsweek some crisis are downplayed, for instance. Very rarely is any rather jocular speculation that Arnold consistent, painstaking and exacting focus given to an Schwarzenegger might be back in Europe to take over elaboration of EU institutional policy-making and his post (Makarychev, “Терминатор”, 22 April 2011). rationale as trends rather than as reactions; without the crisis, then, it could be speculated that the EU 7 would not be as prominent as it has appeared to be. The list can be generated from Of course, abstract, abstruse consideration of policy- http://www.rg.ru/sujet/4045/index.html and includes making is something of a niche subject even for rubrics/search terms including “Greece,” and the other main countries, “money” and “macroeconmics”; as a point readers of a quality daily such as the Gazeta. of comparison, the NCRE survey found some 155 articles in 8 the Gazeta with some reference to the EU. Even at this In various combinations, as both the Greek and Russian turning point of the crisis, then, a third of EU-related versions of the name are used and his first given name is articles were not about it. often shortened to just “Г” [“G”] 6 EUC Working Paper No. 8 More generally, nation states rather than the EU given (as Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian institutions are still seen as actors, as this seemingly Security Council noted in an interview published on 13 gives Russia room to manoeuvre which might be January [Egorov, “За теплом”]) that western Siberian limited by moves by the EU’s paramount institution to reserves were beginning to be depleted, that the take to itself a singular policy-making competence. In extraction rate was well below world averages and a cautiously optimistic piece, “Европа: хорошие that, most of all, the greatest reserves were on the новости” (“Europe: good news”) for the Gazeta (13 continental shelf (i.e. in the Arctic), the extraction of July 2012), Sergey Karaganov distinguishes, in a way which is becoming of “enormous (огромное) strategic that the NCRE survey does not, those “efficient” EU and economic significance.” On 21 January, the countries (the “diligent and effective Germans” Gazeta published a full interview with Viktor Poselov, [трудолюбивые и эффективные немцы] at the fore) deputy director of St Petersburg’s All-Russian and other EU states. There is of course a problem with Research Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources such stratification, as it overlooks historical and other of the World Ocean (VNIIOkeangeologia), who contingencies which would nuance national (or even patiently deliberated and itemized the scientific sub-national) definitions of efficiency, and the investigations under way to demonstrate that two differentiation may reinforce certain national potentially energy-rich ridges in the Arctic (the stereotypes rather than use classifications as Mendeleev and Lomonosov) actually belong to the explicatory factors. Yet the effort to see divergences Russian continental shelf so that a case can be where the NCRE survey posits an amalgam is reformulated to the relevant UN commission under pertinent. More importantly, he also distinguishes an the Convention on the Law of the Sea (Feshchenko, active, Europeanising civil society, with its widening “Споров”, 21 January 2011). branches through SMEs, NGOs and other interest groups, and overly politicized (perhaps crypto- On the one hand, then, a high ruble (based largely on nationalist) agendas underlying and undermining any high oil prices, a recurrent theme of Gazeta articles true progress in addressing the euro crisis. This through the period considered, with an article each distinction again is limited in the categorical frames time the price reached USD 100 a barrel, mostly (the affective assessment of whether the EU is because of the Egyptian, then Libyan situations [e.g. hypocritical, arrogant, etc.) of the NCRE project. on 8 and 22 February]) is necessary for modernization and investment to continue to produce essential However, the Gazeta’s general tendency to play up export flows. In actuality, oil prices stayed at around the individual EU member states and the differences the 100USD a barrel level for little under half the year between or camps among them must be bifurcated and have stayed depressed for most of 2012. On the according to domain. A differentiation is marked for other hand, a high ruble would increase Europeans’ example, between Germany and Poland over the support for increased reduction of Russian energy route of the “Nord Stream” pipeline in the Baltic. imports; higher prices would impede European Whereas EU policy integration over energy contracts economic growth upon which Russian energy prices with third parties would potentially put Russia at a largely still depend. Diversification of energy disadvantage (for example, as argued in an article by transmission, “looking East,” with the provision of Alexander Epishov, First Deputy Director-General of energy to the Asian Pacific littoral states and the the Moscow International Energy Forum, “Своя рука” yuan-ruble market, should be an effective 6 April 2011), such EU coordination to settle the euro counterbalance to any shortfalls from the European crisis is of course welcomed, especially if it supports side. Yet Alexander Epishov, writing on 6 April 2011, the euro with a range of packages from the IMF and was cautious in his estimation of equivalent external sovereign funds. advantages “on the other side” of the Eurasian landmass (в противоположной от Европы стороне): China’s future energy strategy is characterized by Energy issues as main focus and concern in “uncertainty” (неопределённость), “unconventional” relation to the euro crisis (нетрадиционные )resources (including of course renewables) may take a larger share in the energy mix, Perhaps the Gazeta’s main concern looking forward and, most importantly, the Chinese seems like a from beginning 2011 was the need for the “buyer’s market” such that levels of profit similar to modernization and expansion of oil and gas extraction, those in high GDP per capita Europe are not to be expected (Epishov, “Своя рука”, 6 April 2011). 7 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Epishov and Sergey Pravosydov, the general director The pivot turning east, but the EU still important of the National Energy Institute, in an article published on 2 September 2011 (Pravosydov, In 1904, Sir Halford J. Mackinder , the second Director “Nabucco иссяк”), are scathing about the chances of of the London School of Economics, gave a lecture at Turkmen gas flowing to Europe through the once- the Royal Geographical Society in London, “The cherished Austrian Nabucco pipeline, favouring Geographical Pivot of History,” in which he argued the naturally instead the Gazprom joint venture South “pivotal” status of the Russian heartland in global Stream. Questions along the western Asian (which still then largely was conceived as Eurasian) transmission route for Nabucco, and of supply and history. While attention to his thesis has waxed and price stability, all argue in favour of the South Stream waned over the years, Russia’s ability to switch over project, and Russia can be more sanguine given the to supply energy to China when that country’s needs German decision to phase out nuclear power, which are rising as Europe’s demand declines gives back to has thrust the door wide open to coal from the US Russia this “pivotal” position. As noted above, the and if anything to an increase in energy from Russia NCRE public opinion poll found that Russians generally (for a still largely current overview, see Dusseault see Europe and China as about of equal importance [2010]). Yet of course Greece gradually began in 2011 economically (63% thought Europe very important; to cloud the horizon. In November, when oil slipped 59% China). Yet a June 2012 Всероссийский центр to just over USD 89 a barrel (down 4% on the day), the изучения общественного мнения (ВЦИОМ) (The All- Gazeta found the cause in the “situation in Greece,” Russian Public Opinion Research Center) open poll of since the Greek PM had called for a referendum on residents in Siberia and the Russian Far East gives a the expected measures imposed on his country (a different picture, with, not surprisingly, 59% saying referendum which was not held) (“Нефть [Neft’],” 1 that China was of greatest importance to the region(s) November 2011). while Europe (16%) and the eastern part of Russia (11%) lagged far behind (All-Russian Public Opinion Russia is of course resource rich from agriculture to Research Centre, “Siberia”). energy but dependent on higher prices, i.e. a palpable need for these commodities in its client markets to Yet the fulcrum position is as yet underdeveloped to keep modernization projects on track at a time when Russia’s east, and if eurozone problems begin to spill falling populations, lower energy intensity and over onto the Russian economy, such development competition from across the Atlantic reduce demand might be indefinitely deferred. Given then the view in its traditional strongest market, the EU. Even today that both the euro and the dollar are still almost half of Russia’s trade is with the Union, indispensable anchors of world trade, at least in the although if such modernization of Russian energy near term, Russia might judiciously and prudently infrastructure proceeds apace Asia will become more accept offers of investment in the EU where these important. Russian gas is of course expected to flow seem manageable and profitable. When on 19 eastwards and Russian coal is increasingly exported January (Zhebit, “Евроспас”), the Gazeta quoted south and east, but Mongolian coal may be less Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin as saying that Russia expensive for China in the short term and closer of might be interested in eurozone bonds (but not then course to their markets (“Asians, Russians”). At a time those of Spain), the article’s title was reminiscent of when even vociferous ecologically minded nations like one a week or so earlier (Zykova, “Евро”, 13 January) the Germans and the Dutch are importing US coal at which said that Japan and China had been considering near record levels, Russian energy exporters may take similar actions, the latter even of buying Spanish debt. heart from the 2010 Hartwell Paper’s “radical Like Russia, China seemed in favour of some form of reframing” of the climate change debate away from “Eurobonds” (Lisbonne-de Vergeron 30). In a sign of an obsession with carbon emissions (trading): an evolving situation and of relative criteria of “climate change is better understood as a persistent profitability and growth, on 29 June, Arkady condition that must be coped with and can only be Dvorkovich, Assistant to the Russian President (and partially managed more – or less – well” (Prins 16). subsequently Deputy Prime Minister) mentioned that Russia could buy Spanish debt, but not that of Greece (“Аркадий Дворкович [Arkady Dvorkovich]”). Most recently, when in July 2012 Vladimir Putin met Spanish King Juan Carlos I in Moscow on confer on him the State Prize of the Russian Federation, the 8 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Gazeta’s headline (a quotation from the Spanish that [the Chinese] had amassed with such effort” monarch) was that the two countries were “partners (Kykol, “Заложники”, 25 January 2011). of the first order” (“socios de primera clase”). The Russian President expressed his conviction that the If however the yuan is to strengthen—as it had been Spanish king’s visit would serve to open up “yet doing “if not as quickly as the US would like” untapped possibilities” (Petrov, “Партнеры”, 20 July (Chichkin, “Валютный”, 13 January 2011)—this would 2012). be not only through a growing per capita GDP but also by its global presence, to which end a ruble-yuan alliance should be strengthened, and the opening of Oppositions and alliances between dominant direct ruble-yuan trade at the end of 2010 was a and emerging currencies: the US dollar, the euro, positive first step. As an article a week later implied the ruble and the yuan (with the focalisation a little more from the Chinese side perhaps), US-Chinese relations could be strained, As Sergey Karaganov reminded his readers in his 13 but the two countries were “sworn to friendship” July 2012 op-ed piece for the Gazeta mentioned (Заклятая дружба, a reversal of the Russian term for above, “Европа: хорошие новости” [“Europe: good “sworn enemies”) through business deals. On the news”], we are all “in the same boat”. This “we” has occasion of President Hu’s visit to Washington, begun to include not only the EU’s neighbours but the President Obama did not miss the opportunity to world in general. As commentators in the Gazeta repeat a call for the Chinese to help ease the yuan’s noted in 2011, the world needs a strong (but not appreciation. The article ends with a point, taken from overwhelming or in Karaganov’s words “triumphalist”) an NBC poll, that 38% of Americans thought that euro as a counter-weight to the US dollar, or at least China would be world leader in 20 years, yet only 35% until such time as other currencies can add to the considered the US to be capable of sustaining its basket of reserve currencies, the place of the pound position (Gasyuk, “В переводе”, 21 January 2011). and yen in which is gradually being eroded. Here the position of the Gazeta in early 2011 is instructive and Pragmatic alliances, of varying duration, are thus in some ways prophetic (although the newspaper was considered best in a changeable, even volatile not the only place where such views were being situation. It is not surprising therefore that expressed). On the one hand (in the two articles by throughout the half year the Gazeta returns to the Zykova, “Рубль”, 12 January and “Евро”, 13 January), importance of forging partnerships, particularly with the euro is threatened (although, as mentioned above, those with long-term common interests, for example, the situation is not critical), and thus casts a cloud on the customs union between Russia, Belarus and a favourable picture for Russia (for example that oil Kazakhstan (2011/05/05 and 2011/05/19) and the prices will stay at around USD 100) since even if the intention to outline an agreement on a Eurasian country would like to diversify its export portfolio economic community (the new EEC if you will) by the (and the Duma’s ratification of WTO accession in mid- beginning of 2013 (“Владимир Путин [Vladimir 2012 might help this) some 70% of Russia’s exports Putin]”, 19 May 2011). In the opinion of Ruslan are still in the energy sector. On the other hand, the Greenberg, as quoted in an article dated 2 February “monopoly” or “hegemony” (Chichkin, “Валютный”, 2011, the Community would act to lessen any 13 January 2011) was detrimental, as “global finances inflationary impact of a weakening ruble as a should not depend on the Federal reserve.” On 18 consequence of eurozone problems (Zykova, January 2011, an article quotes Chinese President Hu “Греция”). Of equal importance has been a Jintao as calling the global currency system based on strengthening of the Russo-German relation, the dollar a “relic of the past” (Chichkin, “Юань”). An especially through commercial ties. On 5 May 2011, article published on the eve of the 2011 Davos Forum Анна Розэ (Anna Rose), Berlin correspondent, (25 January) under the heading “Hostages to the reported on 90 years of Russo-German business dollar” (the term is from Ruslan Greenberg), reminds relations and highlighted the view of Eckhard Cordes, readers of the enormous size of the US debt and the the Chair of the Ost-Auschuss (the Eastern Chinese dollar holdings, and quotes Chen Fengying of Committtee of German industry) that only by the Institute of World Economic Studies in Beijing as “combining their efforts” could Germany and Russia stating that a full-scale US recession and attendant hold out against the world’s leading economic drastic dollar devaluation would led to the “loss of all powers, China and the USA (Rose, “Дружба”). Cordes stressed such an opinion almost a year later in an op- 9 EUC Working Paper No. 8 ed piece for Die Welt (Cordes, “Zeit”, 8 May 2012) a Gazeta. Indeed, more articles have been published on few months before the Duma ratified their country’s it from that time to mid-2012 (when President Obama entry into the WTO and the Year of Germany in Russia told a NATO conference in Chicago that the system started (2012-2013) under the ambitious motto was half-ready) than on the eurozone crisis and its “Building the future together“ („вместе строим implications for Russia. Yet while START was seen as a будущее”; “gemeinsam die Zukunft gestalten”). Russia-US treaty, the missile defence scheme (in Russian, ЕвроПРО, the Система противоракетной обороны в Европе) was foregrounded as an issue Russia still as pivot, even more so in 2012 than between Russia and Europe, even though of course 1904: Asia, the EU and the US both entangle NATO. As Vladimir Kuzmin opined in an article on the 31st January 2011, with START Yet here, geography is destiny. Mackinder’s concluded, Russian attention needed to “switch over” “heartland” or “pivot” thesis may seem outdated (переключается) to the “problem of anti-missile since air has taken the place of rail in global defence, as yet unresolved between Russia and communications. Yet the geographical location of Europe” (my emphasis) (Kuzmin, “От СНВ” 31st Russia has not of course changed, whatever its January 2011). Just after the signing of the START-3 political composition since 1918, 1945 and then 1989. Treaty, the Gazeta quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Arguably (as we await the outcome of future UN Sergei Ryabkov and Deputy Defence Minister Anatoly deliberation about “ownership” of the Arctic), Russia Antonov as saying that the new treaty gave a “new has contiguous or near-contiguous borders with start” to Russo-US relations. But the paper is quick to several of the world’s larger countries, leading insert Ryabkov’s proviso that the pace must be kept populations and economies: China, the US and up and the countries need to “move on” (двигаться Canada, and the EU. Indeed, with national armaments дальше) as new problems may soon arise (Gavrilov, of the EU member states considered as part of some “Ракеты”, 8 February 2011). future EU arsenal, Russia sees a considerable proportion of its borders surrounded by nuclear powers, more so than perhaps any other country. The Conclusion new nuclear potentialities of several states, and the continuing nuclear armaments of others (certain ex- Detachment and concern, in combination and Soviet states like Kazakhstan notwithstanding), make alternation, over the prospects for Europe the 21st century a particularly risky time for the characterize the Gazeta’s coverage of the euro crisis, country, and agreements to end old animosities are and such ambivalence is in some ways comparable to necessary to free agendas for handling potential new that of the British press, especially in view of the two ones. Russian moves into the Arctic serve to remind countries’ projection of their (clearly distinct) that the world is “round” (to pick up an image from exceptionalism in relation to the eurozone. The Mackinder’s 1943 essay, “The round world and the Gazeta shows Russia conscious again of its winning of the peace”), but this both north-south and multipolarity (as perhaps before in the “Primakov east-west. Hence the successful ratification of the doctrine” [Gulyaeva 2012]), but also of its own START-3 treaty in January and entry into force when specific location and vantage-point both signed by Hillary Clinton and Sergei Lavrov in February geographically and historically, one which “the West” was cause for some celebration. sometimes struggles to accommodate. As the report of a 2009 Moscow conference opines, “Europe […] The other important topic for the Gazeta during the finds it hard to swallow the idea of an exclusive time of the ripening of the euro crisis is then the relationship between Russia and the US” or more country’s relations with the US. While those with the generally to “deal […] with a real, global Russia” EU look dismal, those with East Asia uncertain and [Krastev et al. 76]). Such a “glocal” self-conception demanding, those with the US seemed to be picking evinces an attitude again reminiscent of the writings up with the START agreement signed. Yet the of Mackinder but also of and Nikolai S. Trubetzkoy European missile defence scheme, reportedly to be later in the 20th century. As mentioned earlier, commanded from the well-known Rammstein base in Mackinder thought Eurasian space the “pivot” or Germany, was already by the end of January 2011 the “heartland” of history; Trubetzkoy conceived of the new talking point, and has steadily occupied the awakening consciousness of the peoples of this region to “one whole, organic unity” (к одному целому, к 10 EUC Working Paper No. 8 органическому единству (Trubetzkoy, “Pan-Eurasian help patch together an (albeit limited) contentment of Nationalism” [1927], 244). Such a patterning of sorts. contiguities emanating from a known and definite centre might concord well with a nuancing of Primakov’s view of multipolarity as a mesh of bilateral relationships or contiguities and lesser or greater regionalisms (Primakov, Мир [2009], 168-169). Even if Russia has recently joined ASEM, its position in the institutional architecture (an Asian member, a European one? Neither?) is anomalous. A June 2012 All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (Всероссийский центр изучения общественного мнения [ВЦИОМ]) open poll found that 55% of Russians did not think that Russia could be compared to any other country (Germany was a distant second, at 12%, then the USA and Switzerland at 4% each; 7% were undecided) (All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre, “Что ждёт Россию в 2020 году?” [“What awaits Russia in 2020?”]). With so much still uncertain, then, it is indeed tempting to fall back on established patterns of thought and pathways to partnerships and hence to transitory security. In his “Европа: хорошие новости” (“Europe: good news”) article (13 July 2012), Sergey Karaganov distinguished himself from the prevailing “apocalyptic moods” among expert opinion with regard to the future course of the euro and the EU in general and separated abiding European values from the series of calamities through which the Union was currently going. There is something rather appealing but on the other hand also rather demeaning in the view that an almost superannuated Europe should still see itself as a “larger-sized Venice”, the city state through which because of its trade routes to the East and especially the Islamic world the Renaissance made landfall in Europe, and in a sense the Germany of its day, but now most of all a tourist destination: “Let Europe where it can continue to produce the best products, technologies and brands. And may it become a great museum, a sanatorium for the soul and the body for hundreds of millions of people from other regions of the world, including for Russians.” The accent, it appears, should settle on the second objective, Europe’s ability to furnish the former (“where it can”, где сможет) being seemingly more limited and circumscribed. When trade in goods and even services no longer seems so self-evident as a motor of integration and expansion, falling back on cultural goods and a traditional, even the “eternal” Europe seems second-best but does offer for some a consolation. In such a view, and to paraphrase Sylvia Plath, cultivating a detachment where possible may 11 EUC Working Paper No. 8 References All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (Всероссийский центр изучения общественного мнения [ВЦИОМ]). “Life Abroad: What Do We know about It?” Press Release No. 680 [2007]. http://wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=506 All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (Всероссийский центр изучения общественного мнения (ВЦИОМ). “Siberia and the Far East: ‘Forgotten Land’ or ‘Engine of Development’?” [2012]. http://wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=682 (English) ; Russian at: http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=459&uid=112841 All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (Всероссийский центр изучения общественного мнения [ВЦИОМ]). “Что ждёт Россию в 2020 году?” [“What awaits Russia in 2020?”]. Пресс-выпуск [press release] No. 2043. June 2012. http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=459&uid=112823. “Аркадий Дворкович [Arkady Dvorkovich]: У России нет планов по покупке греческих долгов” [Russia has no plans in buying Greek debt]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 29 June 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/06/29/dolgi-anons.html “Asians, Russians Bid for Mongolian Coal.” Moscow Times. 2 February 2011 (Reuters feed). Bersick, Sebastian, Michael Bruter, Natalia Chaban, Sol Iglesias, Ronan Lenihan. “Asia in the Eyes of Europe: Perceptions and Potentials.” In Sebastian Bersick, Michael Bruter, Natalia Chaban, Sol Iglesias and Ronan Lenihan eds. Asia in the Eyes of Europe: Images of a Rising Giant. Baden-Baden Nomos, 2012. 271-283. Bersick, Sebastian and Martin Holland. The EU through the Eyes of Asia/ Asia in the Eyes of Europe: Mutual Perceptions 2011/12 Findings. Public Briefing at ASEF, Singapore. 6 June 2012. http://www.asef.org/images/docs/Perceptions%20of%20Asia%20and%20Europe.pdf Bloch, Ernst. “Rettung Wagners durch surrealistische Kolportage” [The saving of Wagner through surrealist colportage] (1929). Erbschaft dieser Zeit. Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp, (1962), 1985, 372-380. Cordes, Eckhard. “Zeit für neue Freundschaften: Russland verändert sich – die deutsche Wirtschaft will die neuen Chancen nutzen“ [Time for new friendships: Russia is changing: Germany industry will exploit new chances]. Die Welt 8. May 2012. http://www.ost-ausschuss.de/print/487 Chichkin [Чичкин], Alexei. “Валютный резерв” [Currency reserve]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 13th January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/13/dollar.html Chichkin [Чичкин], Alexei. “ Юань хочет стать долларом” [The yuan wants to be the dollar] Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta].18th January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/18/yuan.html Davis, Howard and Anna Sosnovskaya. “Representations of otherness in Russian newspapers: the theme of migration as a counterpoint to Russian national identity.” Journal of Intercultural Communication 21 (October 2009). Online. Dusseault, David. “Europe’s triple by-pass: The prognosis for Nord Stream, South Stream and Nabucco.” Asia Europe Journal 8.3 (November 2010): 379-398. 13 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Egorov [Егоров], Ivan. “За теплом - в Арктику” [For warmth—into the Arctic]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 13 January 2011 http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/13/patrushev-site.html Elliott, Larry. “Global financial crisis: five key stages 2007-2011.” The Guardian 7 August 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/aug/07/global-financial-crisis-key-stages Elliott, Larry. “Greece election: international action needed more than ever.” The Guardian 17 June 2012. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jun/17/greece-election-international-action Elliott, Larry. “Will Davos heed the warning signs?” The Guardian. 26 January 2011. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jan/26/davos-global-economy?INTCMP=SRCH Epishov [Епишов], Alexander. “Своя рука –‘Набукко.’” Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 6 April 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/04/06/sbit.html Feshchenko [Фещенко], Viktor. “ Споров по Арктике нет” [There are no disputes about the Arctic]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 21st January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/21/arktika.html Gasyuk [Гасюк], Alexander. “ В переводе не нуждается” [No translation needed]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 21st January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/21/usa-china.html. Gavrilov [Гаврилов], Yuri. “Ракеты по Договору” [Missiles Treaty]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 8th February 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/02/08/snv.html Gulyaeva, Olga. “Russia Joins Asia-Europe Meeting: A New Round of the EU-Russia Economic Relations.” International Journal of Humanities and Social Science 2.9 (May 2012): 127-135. Interfax. “Interfax most frequently sourced news agency in Russia and abroad in 2011.” interfax.com March 2, 2012. http://www.interfax.com/pressreleases.asp?id=332953 International Monetary Fund. Euro Area Policies: 2012 Article IV Consultation. Washington, DC: IMF, July 2012. Karaganov [Караганов], Sergey Alexandrovich. “Европа: хорошие новости” [Europe: good news]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 13 July 2012. http://www.rg.ru/printable/2012/07/13/karaganov.html Krastev, Ivan, Mark Leonard and Andrew Wilson, eds. What Does Russia Think? London: European Council on Foreign Relations, 2009. Kuzmin [Кузьмин], Vladimir. “От СНВ к ЕвроПРО” [From START to European missile defence]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 31st January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/31/evropro.html Kykol [Кукол], Elena. “Новый взгляд в 2020” [A new look at 2020]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 15th February 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/02/15/vzglyad.html Kykol [Кукол], Elena. “Оптимистическая рецессия” [An optimistic recession]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 27th January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/26/davos-site.html Kykol [Кукол], Elena. “Заложники доллара” [Hostages to the dollar]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 26th January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/25/valuta-site.html Lisbonne-de Vergeron, Karine. Chinese and Indian views of Europe since the crisis: New perspectives from the emerging Asian giants. London: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 2011. 13 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Mackinder, Sir Halford J. “The Geographical Pivot of History.” The Geographical Journal 23.4 (April 1904): 421-437; reprinted in Democratic Ideals and Reality with additional papers (1919). Washington, DC: NDU Publications, 1942. pp. 175-193. Makarychev [Макарычев], Maksim. “Терминатор вернется в Европу?” [Will the Terminator be back in Europe?]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 22nd April 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/04/21/post-site.html Musolff, Andreas. Metaphor and Political Discourse: Analogical Reasoning in Debates about Europe. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004. “Нефть [Neft’] дешевеет на 4 процента на фоне ситуации в Греции” [“Petrol 4% cheaper on the situation in Greece”] Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta]. 1st November 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/11/01/referendum- anons.html Office for National Statistics (UK). Monthly Review of External Trade Statistics. May 2012 Edition. London, 2012. Peeren, Esther and Silke Horstkotte. “Introduction: The Shock of the Other.” In Peeren and Horstkotte, eds. The Shock of the Other: Situating Alterities. Amsterdam: Rodopi, 2007. Panin [Панин], Georgii. “Есть ли жизнь после евро?” [Is there life after the euro?]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 9th December 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/12/09/raspad-site.html Petrov [Петров], Vitaly. “Партнеры первого порядка” [Partners of the first order]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 20th July 2012. http://www.rg.ru/2012/07/19/carlos-site.html Prasocydov [Правосудов], Sergey. “Nabucco иссяк” [Nabucco run dry]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 2nd September 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/09/02/uzniypotok.html Primakov [Примаков], Yevgeny Maksimovich. Мир без России? К чему ведет политическая близорукость? [A world without Russia? To what does political myopia lead?]. Мoscow: Российская газета, 2009. Online http://yanko.lib.ru/books/politologiya/primakov.mir_bez_rossii.2-l.pdf Prins, Gwyn, et al. The Hartwell Paper: A new direction for climate policy after the crash of 2009. Oxford/LSE: May 2010. Radzikhovsky [Радзиховский], Leonid. “Рождение нации” [Birth of the/a nation]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 15th February 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/02/15/nacia.html “Владимир Путин [Vladimir Putin]: К 2013 году должен быть подготовлен договор о ЕврАзЭС” [“Vladimir Putin: By 2013 an agreement on the Eurasian economic community should be prepared”] Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 19th May 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/05/19/dogovor-anons.html Rose [Розэ], Anna. “Дружба прилавками” [“Friendship through the shelves”]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 5th May 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/05/15/kordes-site.html Trubetzkoy [Трубецкой], Nikolai Sergeyevich. “Pan-Eurasian Nationalism” (1927). The Legacy of Genghis Khan and Other Essays on Russia’s Identity. Ann Arbor: Michigan Slavic Publications, 1991, 233-244. Zbierska-Sawala, Anna. “The Conceptualisation of the European Union in Polish Public Discourse, 2002-2003.” Journal of Multilingual and Multicultural Development 25.5-5 (2004): 408-423. Zhebit [Жебит], Mariya. “Евроспас” [Saving the euro]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 19th January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/19/fond.html 14 EUC Working Paper No. 8 Zykova [Зыкова], Tatyana. “ Евро спасают всем миром” [The whole world will save the euro]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 13th January 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/01/13/evro.html Zykova [Зыкова], Tatyana. “Греция: похищение евро” [“Greece: holding the euro to ransom”]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 2nd August 2011. http://www.rg.ru/2011/08/02/valuta1.html Zykova [Зыкова], Tatyana. “Рубль евро не помеха” [The euro is not an obstacle to the ruble]. Российская Газета [Rossiyskaya Gazeta] 12th January 2012. http://www.rg.ru/printable/2011/01/12/akcii.html 15