1 1390 – - 3 2 1 . (1 . (2 . (3 . (4
[email protected]: * 90/12/03: 90/09/01: . . 1355 -1384 12 (SPI) . . - . . . 5/03 5/51 6/68 7/99 . . . . : ( ) 2 1 . Yurekli and Kurunc, ) .(1383 ) . .(2006 ) 18 .(1382 .(1380 ) 3 4 .(1387 ) . 1960 (1383) . . . 2000 103 (1384) - (1384) . 1975 1999 1951 34 (1385) . . 1991 1951 (1386) . 5 12 - (1386) . (1961 -1990) 27 1 Drought 2 Precipitation variability 3 Trend 4 Climate change 5 Mann-Kendall test (1386) . 50 30 2000 %95 . %95 40 . 30 . . 2003 1961 (1386) 51 . 2001 1960 38 (1386) . . (1387) . 29 . . (1387) 1 1345 ( ) ( ) - . 1384 . 40 . Rebetez (1999) da Silva (2004) . 1 Mann–Kendall rank statistic Modarres, and da . Silva (2007) . Vicente-Serrano and Cuadrat-Prats (2007) . 2000 1951 . 1384 1355 (SPI) 1 12 . 2 - . . . .(1 ) 45˚24́ 36˚28́ 32˚40́ 102 34 . 50˚1́ 30 SPI . 30 10 .(1386 ) . 1 . 3 . 1 Standard Precipitation Index 2 Sen’s slope estimator 2 Run test :1 ( ) 21´ 1318/6 47˚ 09´ 34˚ 30´ 1500 47˚ 58´ 34˚ 27´ 550 45˚ 52´ 34˚ 52´ 1741/5 48˚ 32´ 34˚ 12´ 1679/7 48˚ 43´ 35˚ 52´ 1940 47˚ 37´ 35˚ 15´ 1522/8 46˚ 16´ 36˚ 20´ 1373/4 47˚ 00´ 35˚ 26´ 1147/8 48˚ 17´ 33˚ 1182 33˚ 2´ 49˚07´ :1 . Mckee et al. (1993) . . .(Edward and Mckee, 1997) 12 SPI . (1381 ) : SPI .(Raziei et al. 2009) Pi P SPI (1) S S P i Pi . 2 SPI . SPI :2 SPI >2 1/99 1/5 1/49 1 0/99 0/5 -0/49 0/49 -0/99 -0/5 -1/49 -1 -1/99 -1/5 < -2 . 1 - . - . . - - : - Partal and Kahya, 2006; Modarres and ) Sarhadi, 2009;Tabari and Marofi, 2011; Jhajharia et al., 2011; Tabari et al., 2011a, 2011b; Tao et al., .(2011; Tabari et al., 2011a, 2011b 1945 . SPI .(1383 ) 1948 . ( ) : 1 Non-parametric 1 : S ( S sgn x x n 1 n (2) k 1 j k 1 j k . k j xk xj n : 1 if x xk 0 sgn x 0 x xk 0 j (3) 1 if x xk 0 if j j : ( nn 12n 5 ti ti 12ti 5 m Var S i 1 : n 10 (4) 18 nn 12n 5 : n 10 Var ( S ) (5) 18 - t m n . : Z ( S 1 S 0 if Var ( S ) S 0 (6) Z if 0 S 1 Var ( S ) if S 0 : Z Zα / 2 (7) α Zα α - .(1387 ) α /2 Z . %99 %95 . 1 Sign Function . Sen (1968) : . - .(1387 ) . .(Bouza-Deano et al., 2008) . : . : ( Xt Xs Q (8) ts . s t s t Xs Xt Qmed . (Qmed) . : Cα ( Cα Z1α / 2 * var(s ) (9) - Z - 2/58 1/96 99 95 ( Cα ) . . : (M1 M2) ( N Cα M 1 2 (10) M Cα 2 N 2 . N . ( . (M2+1) M1 8 . .(1387 ) . - : - . . . t . . t i nk i (11) k 1 : u(ti) u (ti ) [ti E (ti )] / Var (ti ) (12) : E E (t i ) i(i 1) / 4 (13) 1 . ú(ti) (1/96) 5 ú(ti) u(ti) ú(ti) u(ti) .(1387 ) . . 2 1384 1355 . ) (0/26 ) 1. Back-ward ( ) ( ) 200 400 600 800 0 13 200 400 600 800 0 55 13 55 ) ( ) ( 13 : 59 13 59 )(0/22 13 13 63 63 13 13 67 67 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 13 ( 71 13 71 13 13 75 75 13 13 79 79 13 13 1355-1384 83 83 ( ( ) ( ) . 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800 0 13 13 55 55 ( ) ( ) 13 13 59 59 .(3 ( 13 13 )(0/25 63 63 ) 13 13 67 67 13 13 71 71 ﺳﻘ ز :2 ( 13 13 75 75 ﻧ و ژه (0/20 :3 13 13 ﺳﻧﻧ د ج 79 79 13 13 83 83 1 ArcGIS 600 400 . 4 . . . ) (1381) . . ( -0/625 . ( ) :4 . 1372 791 . 1380 180 1 Kriging 95 SPI SPI 12 SPI 12 13 13 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 . 55 : 55 13 13 57 ( ) ( ) . 57 13 13 60 60 13 13 63 63 13 13 66 66 13 13 . 69 69 ( 13 13 72 72 13 13 74 74 . 13 13 77 77 . 13 . 1355-1384 13 80 SPI 80 13 99 13 83 83 ( . 1384 SPI SPI Qmed 5 13 13 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 55 55 1355 Z ( 13 13 ( ) 57 57 ) . . 13 13 - 60 60 ( 12 SPI 13 13 4 3 63 63 13 13 SPI 66 66 13 13 69 69 . 13 13 72 72 12 SPI ( 13 13 74 74 13 13 :5 77 77 13 13 80 80 99 95 13 13 83 83 5 . . . . (1386) . 5/03 5/51 6/68 7/99 . 3/24 . 1384 1355 :3 Q Z -1/12 -0/36 0/85 0/46 -5/51 -2/59 ** ** -1/92 -1/12 -0/50 -0/34 -6/68 -4/51 ** ** -5/03 -2/28 * * -7/99 -4/19 ** ** -3/58 -1/50 -0/94 - -0/84 99 : ** 95 :* :Q - :Z . - . u u - 6 . - 1/96 1369 1369 - . . 1374 1373 1369 u(d) u'(d) 4 2 u(d) وu'(d) 0 -2 -4 -6 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 u(d) u'(d) 4 2 u(d) وu'(d) 0 -2 -4 -6 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 u(d) u'(d) 4 2 u(d) وu'(d) 0 -2 -4 -6 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 u(d) u'(d) 4 2 u(d) وu'(d) 0 -2 -4 -6 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 135 135 135 136 136 136 136 136 137 137 137 137 137 138 138 (1355 -1384) u' u :6 - . 4 SPI SPI . . . SPI . . 1384 1355 SPI :4 Q Z -0/0042 -2/06 * * ** ** 0/0079 3/77 * * 0/0035 1/99 0/0027 1/29 0/0010 0/57 0/0018 0/92 -0/0032 -1/49 ** ** -0/0063 -2/78 ** ** -0/0040 -2/12 * * * * 0/0051 2/46 ** 99 : 95 :* :Q - :Z SPI . 5 12 SPI -2/6 1378 . ( ) -2 SPI . . SPI 69 . 56 . 12 . . 1379 1378 SPI . . . 12 :5 SPI ( ) 25 1374 -2/59 4 1365 -0/62 56 1364 -1/11 - 17 1378 -1/81 21 1379 -2/39 69 1365 -0/99 21 1379 -1/89 47 1378 -2/6 29 1369 -2/51 3 1379 -0/55 - (SPI ) SPI . - . . . 30 . 30 . . . . . . . 6 . .1381 . . . - .51 -70 4 .1381 . . . - .4-21 4 17 . .1382 . . . - .86-106 2 18 . .1383 . - . .1383 . - .25-33 1 9 .1387 . . . - -168 64 40 .157 .1387 . .. . - .161-174 :(1)8 . - .1387 . . - .13 -28 64 40 - 10 5 - .1386 . - .145 -164 38 .1385 . . - .67 -80 58 .1386 . - .42 -55 3 3 .1380 . . . . . - . .1386 . . - .93-97 9 10 : ) .1383 . - .47 -56 4 17 ( . .1384 . . . - .143-162 1 18 ( ) .1386 . . . - .67-83 1 33 2001 1960 .1386 . . . . - .97-109 1 14 - .1384 . . . . . - .81 -97 2 28 -Bouza-Deano, R., Ternero-Rodrıguez, M. and Ferna´ndez-Espinosa, A. J., (2008). Trend study and assessment of surface water quality in the Ebro River (Spain), Journal of Hydrology, 361, 227- 239. -da Silva, V.P.R. (2004). On climate variability in northeast Brazil. 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