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Bank:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Content Type:Working Paper
Working Paper
Stabilization vs. Growth
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Paul, Pascal; Sanchez, Juan M.
(2026-04-16)
Should firms in financial distress be saved to stabilize an economy, even if less productive ones are kept alive, possibly reducing economic growth? To assess this fundamental stabilization-vs.-growth trade-off, we develop a new dynamic general equilibrium model with business cycles, endogenous growth, and innovation externalities. We discipline key parameters using microeconomic data and an instrumental-variable approach that links firm productivity growth to R&D expenditure. Based on the calibrated model, we find that economies that save distressed firms with credit guarantees, debt ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-006
Working Paper
Scalable versus Productive Technologies
Hubmer, Joachim; Salgado, Sergio; Ozkan, Serdar; Hong, Guangbin; Chan, Mons
(2026-04-16)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Hubmer, Chan, Ozkan, Salgado, Hong. Are larger firms more productive, more scalable, or both? We use firm-level panel data from thirteen countries and employ a broad set of methods to estimate factor elasticities—capturing returns to scale (RTS)—and total factor productivity (TFP). We find substantial RTS heterogeneity within industries, with larger firms exhibiting higher RTS driven by greater intermediate input elasticities. TFP, by contrast, rises with firm size only up to the top decile before declining. The RTS–size gradient primarily reflects persistent, ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-019
Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel; Kozlowski, Julian
(2026-04-15)
We empirically study firm financing costs using a comprehensive dataset of corporate bonds and bank loans. We construct a measure of financing costs, the Excess Debt Premium, which controls for observable debt characteristics. We document two key findings: first, bank loans are about 45 basis points cheaper than corporate bonds when controlling for observable characteristics. Second, there is significant dispersion in borrowing costs, even within the same firm and quarter. The analysis reveals that this within-firm variation persists after accounting for instrument type, maturity, amount, and ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2024-016
Working Paper
Expectations on Wealth Returns: Implications for Labor Supply During the Retirement Boom
Birinci, Serdar; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; See, Kurt
(2026-04-08)
We use an overlapping-generations model with incomplete markets and a frictional labor market to study how assumptions about agents’ expectations of changes in returns to wealth affect labor supply and retirement decisions. Focusing on 2020–23, when returns fluctuated sharply and retirements rose above trend, we find that when individuals internalize the dependence of returns on wealth and view changes in returns as persistent, the model generates counterfactual labor-market outcomes. Retirements fall because expectations of persistently high returns boost labor supply, outweighing wealth ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2025-031
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra
(2026-03-30)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-004
Working Paper
Drivers of Wage and Employment Growth in Recent Years: A Supply and Demand Decomposition
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Marks, Cassandra
(2026-03-27)
Understanding whether labor market developments stem from supply or demand forces has fundamental implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article develops a structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology to decompose U.S. employment and wage growth into supply and demand components using sign restrictions. Extending Shapiro (2026), we separately identify trend growth, current shocks, and past shocks across different industries. Results reveal that goods-producing sectors experienced strong demand-driven growth in 2022, which subsequently weakened as Federal Reserve ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-004
Working Paper
Mind the Gap: AI Adoption in Europe and the US
Jessen, Jonas; Blandin, Adam; Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola; Bick, Alexander; Deming, David
(2026-03-26)
This paper combines international evidence from worker and firm surveys conducted in 2025 and2026 to document large gaps in AI adoption, both between the US and Europe and across European countries. Cross-country differences in worker demographics and firm composition account for an important share of these gaps. AI adoption, within and across countries, is also closely linked to firm personnel management practices and whether firms actively encourage AI use by workers. Micro-level evidence suggests that AI generates meaningful time savings for many workers. At the macro level, in recent ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-003
Working Paper
Expanding College Access
Hendricks, Lutz; Koreshkova, Tatyana; Leukhina, Oksana
(2026-03-26)
This paper studies the effects of expanding high-quality public university capacities on student earnings and welfare. Using a quantitative model of college choice, we find that expanding the most selective colleges by 20 percent increases aggregate earnings by 0.8 percent and welfare by 2 percent. The gains arise because a large number of high-ability students are rationed out of selective colleges. When admitted, these students graduate at high rates and enjoy substantial earnings gains. The earnings gains generated by expanding college capacity are eight times larger than the fiscal cost ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-005
Working Paper
Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?
See, Kurt; Birinci, Serdar; Karabarbounis, Loukas
(2026-03-24)
In the 1990s, Americans used to work much more than non-Americans. Nowadays, about half of the gap in hours worked has reversed. To evaluate the convergence of working hours, we develop a tractable model of labor supply enriched with multiple sources of heterogeneity across individuals, an extensive margin of participation, multi-member households, and an elaborate system of taxes and benefits upon non-employment. Using detailed measurements from micro-level and aggregate datasets, we identify model parameters and sources of heterogeneity across individuals for various countries. We run a ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2026-002
Working Paper
Optimal Dynamic Tax-Transfer Policies in Heterogeneous-Agents Economies
Chien, YiLi; Wen, Yi
(2026-03-12)
When designing an optimal tax-transfer system, the existing literature identifies two key factors: labor efficiency and debt efficiency. The labor-efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between redistribution and distortion in the labor market, while the debt efficiency approach emphasizes the trade-off between monopoly rent gains and distortion in the asset market. In this paper, we propose a third factor to consider when designing optimal tax-transfer policies: the dynamic-efficiency approach. To demonstrate this, we use an analytically tractable infinite-horizon model incorporating ...
Working Papers
, Paper 2023-009
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Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers
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Wen, Yi
112 items
Owyang, Michael T.
86 items
Neely, Christopher J.
78 items
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel
75 items
Sanchez, Juan M.
68 items
Thornton, Daniel L.
66 items
Birinci, Serdar
65 items
See, Kurt
60 items
Wheelock, David C.
60 items
Kozlowski, Julian
58 items
Chien, YiLi
57 items
Santacreu, Ana Maria
56 items
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu
51 items
Martin, Fernando M.
45 items
Ravikumar, B.
44 items
Leibovici, Fernando
43 items
McCracken, Michael W.
43 items
Bullard, James B.
42 items
Coughlin, Cletus C.
42 items
Hafer, Rik
41 items
Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
39 items
Guidolin, Massimo
37 items
Wall, Howard J.
37 items
Dueker, Michael J.
35 items
Garrett, Thomas A.
30 items
Anderson, Richard G.
29 items
Dupor, Bill
29 items
Ozkan, Serdar
27 items
Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina
27 items
Andolfatto, David
26 items
Garriga, Carlos
26 items
Gavin, William T.
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Piger, Jeremy M.
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Rubinton, Hannah
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Leukhina, Oksana
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Gregory, Victoria
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Guo, Hui
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Nelson, Edward
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Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben
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Pakko, Michael R.
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Cohen, Jeffrey P.
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DiCecio, Riccardo
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Dvorkin, Maximiliano
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Jackson, Laura E.
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Wang, Pengfei
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Belongia, Michael T.
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Bick, Alexander
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Emmons, William R.
19 items
Waller, Christopher J.
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Blandin, Adam
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Ebsim, Mahdi
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Espino, Emilio
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Tatom, John A.
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Batten, Dallas S.
16 items
Brinca, Pedro
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Karahan, Fatih
16 items
Mercan, Yusuf
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Rasche, Robert H.
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Wheeler, Christopher H.
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Wilson, Paul W.
16 items
Kliesen, Kevin L.
15 items
Schmid, Frank A.
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Cheremukhin, Anton A.
14 items
Gilbert, R. Alton
14 items
Pollard, Patricia S.
14 items
Sandler, Todd
14 items
Soques, Daniel
14 items
Wiczer, David
14 items
Zimmermann, Christian
14 items
Clark, Todd E.
13 items
Francis, Neville
13 items
Weller, Paul A.
13 items
Holter, Hans
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Jaremski, Matthew
12 items
Peralta-Alva, Adrian
12 items
Salgado, Sergio
12 items
Sposi, Michael
12 items
Azariadis, Costas
11 items
Contessi, Silvio
11 items
Allen, Donald S.
10 items
Daruich, Diego
10 items
Greenwood, Jeremy
10 items
Halvorsen, Elin
10 items
Hein, Scott E.
10 items
Hejkal, John P.
10 items
Hubmer, Joachim
10 items
Kydland, Finn E.
10 items
Monge-Naranjo, Alexander
10 items
Ohanian, Lee E.
10 items
Otrok, Christopher
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Park, Youngmin
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Pennington-Cross, Anthony
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Taylor, Lowell J.
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Vaughan, Mark D.
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Yeager, Timothy J.
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Younas, Javed
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Berentsen, Aleksander
9 items
Chen, Yunmin
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Conley, Timothy G.
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Erdemlioglu, Deniz
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Ferreira, Miguel H.
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Keen, Benjamin D.
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Li, Rong
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Paul, Pascal
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Ritter, Joseph A.
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Schlagenhauf, Don E.
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Sheehan, Richard G.
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Athreya, Kartik B.
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Chiang, Yu-Ting
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Crews, Jonas C.
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Gascon, Charles S.
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Guisinger, Amy Y.
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Juvenal, Luciana
8 items
Kohn, David
8 items
Krishna, R. Vijay
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Lustig, Hanno
8 items
Manuelli, Rodolfo E.
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Mehkari, M. Saif
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Sapriza, Horacio
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Sarno, Lucio
8 items
Savickas, Robert
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Timmerman, Allan
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Williamson, Stephen D.
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Wright, Mark L. J.
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Yurdagul, Emircan
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Bloedel, Alex
7 items
Bordo, Michael D.
7 items
Carlson, Mark A.
7 items
Chambers, Matthew
7 items
Duarte, Joao B.
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Duffy, John
7 items
Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro
7 items
Hendricks, Lutz
7 items
Kalyani, Aakash
7 items
King, Thomas B.
7 items
Kolesnikova, Natalia A.
7 items
Koreshkova, Tatyana
7 items
Lahiri, Sajal
7 items
Meyer, Andrew P.
7 items
Pecchenino, Rowena A.
7 items
Riezman, Raymond
7 items
Sengupta, Rajdeep
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Szkup, Michal
7 items
Van Patten, Diana
7 items
Yang, Xiye
7 items
Badel, Alejandro
6 items
Barseghyan, Levon
6 items
Black, Dan A.
6 items
Caramp, Nicolas
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Chrystal, K. Alec
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Cole, Harold L.
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Deming, David
6 items
Dittmar, Robert
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Fuller, David L.
6 items
Gayle, George-Levi
6 items
Han, Pengfei
6 items
Inokuma, Hiroshi
6 items
Jordan-Wood, Samuel
6 items
Kim, Chang-Jin
6 items
Levine, David K.
6 items
Mitra, Devashish
6 items
Morley, James
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Mustre-del-Rio, Jose
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Rapach, David E.
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Teeple, Keisuke
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Wee, Shu Lin
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Yoo, Peter S.
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Zhang, Yuzhe
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Amburgey, Aaron
5 items
Binner, Jane M.
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Calomiris, Charles W.
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Canon, Maria E.
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Caplin, Andrew
5 items
Chan, Mons
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Dempsey, Kyle
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Dong, Feng
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Golan, Limor
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Goncalves, Silvia
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Hassan, Tarek A.
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Heipertz, Jonas
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Ho, Giang
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Hogan, Marie
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Hong, Guangbin
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Hyde, Stuart
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Kaas, Leo
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LaBelle, Jesse
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Lee, Eungik
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Leth-Petersen, Soren
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Martinez-Zarzoso, Immaculada
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Mather, Ryan
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Menzio, Guido
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Mihov, Ilian
5 items
Nicodano, Giovanna
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Nóbrega, Valter
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Ott, Mack
5 items
Pintus, Patrick A.
5 items
Rogerson, Richard
5 items
Santoni, G. J.
5 items
Sierra, Gregory E.
5 items
Sola, Martin
5 items
Sæverud, Johan
5 items
Valente, Giorgio
5 items
Zhou, Yijiang
5 items
Adamopoulos, Tasso
4 items
Aguiar-Conraria, Luis
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Basu, Arnab K.
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Butler, Alison
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Chau, Nancy H.
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Conesa, Juan Carlos
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Davidson, Lawrence S.
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Dunn, Jason
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Engemann, Kristie M.
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Fischer, Andreas M.
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Francis, Johanna L.
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Galvão, Ana B.
4 items
Greaney, Brian
4 items
Hong, Sungki
4 items
Isaacson, Maggie
4 items
Jones, Barry E.
4 items
Kool, Clemens J. M.
4 items
Kudlyak, Marianna
4 items
Li, Jingchao
4 items
López-Salido, J. David
4 items
Marks, Cassandra
4 items
Mason, Joseph R.
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McInish, Thomas H.
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Mutreja, Piyusha
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Nosal, Ed
4 items
Planchon, Jade
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Singh, Aarti
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Smith, Bruce
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Tahoun, Ahmed
4 items
Tutino, Antonella
4 items
Wagner, Gary A.
4 items
Wu, HsinJung
4 items
Xu, Zhiwei
4 items
Yang, C.C.
4 items
Young, Eric
4 items
de Soyres, Francois
4 items
Šustek, Roman
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Ahrens, Maximilian
3 items
Andres, Javier
3 items
Banternghansa, Chanont
3 items
Bhardwaj, Geetesh
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Blei, Sharon K.
3 items
Boldrin, Michele
3 items
Boudt, Kris
3 items
Burger, Albert E.
3 items
Cai, Jie
3 items
Caplan, Aidan
3 items
Caplan, Tristan
3 items
Cardak, Buly A.
3 items
Caunedo, Julieta
3 items
Chiodo, Abbigail J.
3 items
Cho, In-Koo
3 items
De Pace, Pierangelo
3 items
Demyanyk, Yuliya
3 items
Dewald, William G.
3 items
Dutt, Pushan
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Dwyer, Gerald P.
3 items
Evans, George W.
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Famiglietti, Matthew
3 items
Figueroa, Nicolás
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Fuchs-Schündeln, Nicola
3 items
Fugazza, Carolina
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Gandelman, Nestor
3 items
Georgellis, Yannis
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Ghent, Andra C.
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Glomm, Gerhard
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Haubrich, Joseph G.
3 items
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3 items
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3 items
Honkapohja, Seppo
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Hooks, Donald L.
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Huggett, Mark
3 items
Jansen, Dennis W.
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Jiang, Xian
3 items
Kalish, Lionel
3 items
Karabarbounis, Marios
3 items
Komunjer, Ivana
3 items
Kutan, Ali M.
3 items
Lahaye, Jerome
3 items
Lam, Leo C.H.
3 items
Laurent, Sebastien
3 items
Laurent, Sébastien
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Li, Nan
3 items
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Martorana, Joseph
3 items
McCrory, Peter B.
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McGillicuddy, Joseph
3 items
McMahon, Michael
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Modica, Salvatore
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Nelson, Charles R.
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Nilsson, Birger
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Ono, Sadayuki
3 items
Park, Sangkyun
3 items
Pham, Cong S.
3 items
Porcher, Charly
3 items
Pugsley, Benjamin
3 items
Ramírez, Carlos
3 items
Rhine, Russell M.
3 items
Ross, Stephen L.
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Roy, Suryadipta
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Roys, Nicolas
3 items
Russell, Steven
3 items
Sanchez-Losada, Fernando
3 items
Santamaría, Clara
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Santos, Manuel S.
3 items
Schwedeler, Markus
3 items
Sekhposyan, Tatevik
3 items
Shin, Yongseok
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Song, Jae
3 items
Song, Stefan
3 items
Soytas, Mehmet A.
3 items
Spencer, Roger W.
3 items
Startz, Richard
3 items
Storesletten, Kjetil
3 items
Theodorou, Athena T.
3 items
Traca, Daniel A.
3 items
Wang, Xin
3 items
Wang, Zijun
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Xing, Xiaochuan
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Yang, C. C.
3 items
Yang, Jian
3 items
Yao, Yongxu
3 items
Yotov, Yoto
3 items
Zubairy, Sarah
3 items
van Lent, Laurence
3 items
Żoch, Piotr
3 items
Airaudo, Florencia
2 items
Allen, Stuart D.
2 items
Anbil, Sriya
2 items
Andersen, Leonall C.
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Antinolfi, Gaetano
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Arbogast, Iris
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Arifovic, Jasmina
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Arromdee, Vachira
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Auer, Raphael
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Auray, Stéphane
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Benhabib, Jess
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Benigno, Gianluca
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Bhandari, Anmol
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Bhattarai, Saroj
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Boel, Paola
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Bokun, Kathryn
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Bouamara, Nabil
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Brada, Josef C.
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Braun, Helge
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Brave, Scott A.
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Caldara, Dario
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Camera, Gabriele
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Cavalcanti Ferreira, Pedro
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Chalfant, James A.
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Chauvet, Marcelle
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Chen, Daphne
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Chen, Huigang
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Choi, Woon Gyu
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Cirelli, Fernando
2 items
Clapp, John M.
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Cornelli, Giulio
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Coroneo, Laura
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DePace, Pierangelo
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Dinlersoz, Emin M.
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Gaillard, Alexandre
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Garfinkel, Michelle R.
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Hamann, Franz
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Kahn, Charles M.
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Kara, Amit
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Karaivanov, Alexander K.
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Karger, Ezra
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Karnosky, Denis S.
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Kim, Gyuhan
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Kim, Yang-Woo
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Kluender, William
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Knowles, John
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Kolb, Fredric
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Kose, M. Ayhan
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Kumbhaker, Subal C.
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König, Michael D.
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La Ferrara, Eliana
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La Jeunesse, Elizabeth A.
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Lagakos, David
2 items
Levin, Andrew T.
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Liu, Xiaodong
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Ljungqvist, Lars
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Llobet, Gerard
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Madera, Rocio
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Majerovitz, Jeremy
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Shell, Hannah
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Terza, Joseph V.
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Torres de Mello Pereira, Luciene
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Wang, Ping
2 items
Waugh, Michael E.
2 items
Wesche, Katrin
2 items
Williams, Marcela M.
2 items
Wong, Tsz-Nga
2 items
Young, Henry L.
2 items
Zhang, Jing
2 items
Zoega, Gylfi
2 items
Agarwal, Nikhil
1 items
Ahmed, Ehsan
1 items
Ahn, Byung Chan
1 items
Allsopp, Christopher
1 items
Alpanda, Sami
1 items
Arbex, Marcelo
1 items
Arias, Maria A.
1 items
Armesto, Michelle T.
1 items
Aruoba, S. Boragan
1 items
Asea, Patrick K.
1 items
Babb, Christopher T.
1 items
Bandyopadhyay, Sudeshna C.
1 items
Bar, Michael
1 items
Basistha, Arabinda
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Batini, Nicoletta
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55 items
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54 items
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45 items
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44 items
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27 items
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25 items
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24 items
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23 items
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23 items
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23 items
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22 items
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22 items
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22 items
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22 items
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22 items
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21 items
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19 items
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19 items
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19 items
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18 items
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18 items
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18 items
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18 items
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17 items
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17 items
J61
16 items
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14 items
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14 items
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11 items
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11 items
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11 items
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11 items
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3 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
H12
2 items
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2 items
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2 items
H27
2 items
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2 items
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2 items
H55
2 items
H73
2 items
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2 items
J30
2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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2 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
F36
1 items
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1 items
F50
1 items
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1 items
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1 items
F54
1 items
F55
1 items
F65
1 items
G30
1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
O32
1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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Q32
1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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1 items
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116 items
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75 items
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56 items
monetary policy
56 items
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51 items
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42 items
inflation
41 items
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40 items
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36 items
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36 items
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33 items
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31 items
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30 items
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29 items
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27 items
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25 items
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16 items
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16 items
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15 items
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15 items
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15 items
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15 items
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14 items
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14 items
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14 items
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14 items
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13 items
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13 items
deficit
13 items
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13 items
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13 items
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13 items
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12 items
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10 items
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9 items
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6 items
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6 items
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6 items
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6 items
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5 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
Friedman, Milton
3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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3 items
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International Monetary Fund
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International business enterprises
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Investments, Foreign - United States
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Keynesian economics
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Knowledge spillovers
3 items
Labor Productivity
3 items
Labor productivity
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Lump-sum Transfers
3 items
Macroeconomics - Econometric models
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Mortality
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New Keynesian models
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New Stage Theory
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News
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Nowcasting
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Optimal Quantity of Debt
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Pareto tails
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Pollution
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Private Information
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Production Externalities
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Progressive Party
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Public Liquidity
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R&D
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Ramsey redistribution
3 items
Real-time data
3 items
Recession
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