Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes - Cen

Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes - CentAUR
link to Reading.ac.uk
Browse
Year
Division
Author
Latest additions
About
About CentAUR
Deposit publication
Policies
Help
Contact
Statistics
Browse
About
Statistics
Advanced search
Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes
Preview
Text (Open Access)
- Published Version
· Available under License
Creative Commons Attribution
Advice
Advice
Advice
Please see our
End User Agreement
It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from this work. See
Guidance on citing
Tools
Tools
Tools
Lists
Lists
Lists
Zhang, M.
Dong, B.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911
Schiemann, R.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856
and
Robson, J.
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X
(2024)
Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes.
Climate Dynamics, 62.

pp. 1887-1907.

ISSN 0930-7575

doi:
10.1007/s00382-023-07001-4
(Zhang, M., Dong, B., Schiemann, R. et al. Summer compound heatwaves over China: projected changes at different global warming levels and related physical processes. Clim Dyn (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-07001-4)
Abstract/Summary
Based on the multi-model ensemble mean of CMIP6 simulations, the future changes in frequency, intensity and duration of Compound (both daytime and nighttime) heatwaves (HWs) in summer over China at various global warming levels (GWLs) under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 are assessed. HWs over China become more frequent and hotter, and the duration of HWs becomes longer compared to those in the recent climate. The magnitudes of these changes are primarily dependent on GWLs, but they are not very sensitive to the scenarios. At 4 ℃ GWL, the frequency of HWs increases by more than fivefold under both scenarios, and the intensity (duration) of HWs averaged under the two scenarios is 2.28 ℃ hotter (3.59 days longer) than the one in the recent climate over the entire China. Meanwhile, the maximum duration of HW events can reach more than 25 days in summer in comparison with 8 days in the recent climate. The changes in HW properties are regionally dependent at the four GWLs. For example, the largest increase in HW frequency is over the Northwest China, the largest increase in intensity in HWs is seen over the Northeast and Northwest, and the largest increase in HW duration is over the Southwest China. The extreme rare events (50-year and 100-year events) in the recent climate would become the norm over China and four sub-regions at 4 ℃ GWL. Overall, seasonal mean warming dominates the changes in HW properties over China at the different GWLs. The seasonal mean warming in summer across China is related to the increases of longwave radiation, partly due to increase in greenhouse gas forcing and partly resulted from increased water vapor and the increase of shortwave radiation (under the SSP5-8.5) over eastern China related to decreases in aerosols and total cloud cover. Furthermore, the regional variations in the water vapor over China are consistent with atmospheric circulation changes. The seasonal mean surface warming results in enhanced upward sensible and latent heat fluxes, leading to increased summer mean daily maximum and minimum of near-surface air temperature and the enhancement of HWs properties over the entire China. Changes of shortwave radiation tend to play a weaker role for surface warming under the SSP3-7.0 than those under the SSP5-8.5, which is related to increased aerosol changes under the SSP3-7.0.
Altmetric Badge
Dimensions Badge
Item Type
Article
URI
Identification Number/DOI
10.1007/s00382-023-07001-4
Refereed
Yes
Divisions
Science
School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences
NCAS
Science
School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences
Department of Meteorology
Publisher
Springer
Download/View statistics
View download statistics for this item
Download Statistics
Download Statistics
Download Statistics
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
Deposit Details
Deposit Details
Deposit Details
Date Deposited:
14 Nov 2023 11:29
Date item deposited into CentAUR
Last Modified:
20 Jan 2026 13:48
Date item last modified
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
CORE (COnnecting REpositories)
University Staff:
Request a correction
| Centaur Editors:
Update this record