USGS Open-File Report 2013–1165: Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast,
Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model
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Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast,
Version 3 (UCERF3)—The Time-Independent Model
By Edward H. Field, Glenn P. Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen R. Felzer, David D. Jackson,
Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T.
Page, Tom Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, and
Yuehua Zeng (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities)
Abstract
In this report we present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multifault ruptures, both limitations of the previous model (UCERF2). The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously, and from a broader range of data, using a system-level "grand inversion" that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (for example, magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1,440 alternative logic tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M≥5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded because of lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (for example, constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5–7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements.
Appendixes
Appendix A (PDF, 1 MB)
Updates to the California Reference Fault Parameter Database—Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 Fault Models 3.1 and 3.2
, By Timothy E. Dawson
Appendix B (PDF, 1.8 MB)
Geologic-Slip-Rate Data and Geologic Deformation Model
, By Timothy E. Dawson, and Ray J. Weldon, II
Table B1 (XLSX, 185 KB)
Appendix C (PDF, 9.8 MB)
Deformation Models for UCERF3
, By Tom Parsons, Kaj M. Johnson, Peter Bird, Jayne Bormann, Timothy E. Dawson, Edward H. Field, William C. Hammond, Thomas A. Herring, Rob McCaffrey, Zhen-Kang Shen, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, II, and Yuehua Zeng
Appendix D (PDF, 2.4 MB)
Compilation of Creep Rate Data for California Faults and Calculation of Moment Reduction Due to Creep
, By Ray J. Weldon, II, David A. Schmidt, Lauren J. Austin, Elise M. Weldon, and Timothy E. Dawson
Appendix E (PDF, 1.8 MB)
Evaluation of Magnitude-Scaling Relationships and Depth of Rupture
, By Bruce E. Shaw
Appendix F (PDF, 2.1 MB)
Distribution of Slip in Ruptures
, By Glenn P. Biasi, Ray J. Weldon, II, Timothy E. Dawson
Appendix G (PDF, 1 MB)
Paleoseismic Sites Recurrence Database
, By Ray J. Weldon, II, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn Biasi, Christopher Madden, and Ashley R. Streig
Appendix H (PDF, 1.6 MB)
Maximum Likelihood Recurrence Intervals for California Paleoseismic Sites
, By Glenn P. Biasi
Appendix I (PDF, 4.1 MB)
Probability of Detection of Ground Rupture at Paleoseismic Sites
, By Ray J. Weldon, II and Glenn P. Biasi
Appendix J (PDF, 1.2 MB)
Fault-to-Fault Rupture Probabilities
, By Glenn P. Biasi, Tom Parsons, Ray J. Weldon, II, and Timothy E. Dawson
Appendix K (PDF, 210 KB)
The UCERF3 Earthquake Catalog
, By K.R. Felzer
Earthquake Catalog (TXT, 5.4 MB)
Appendix L (PDF, 580 KB)
Estimate of the Seismicity Rate and Magnitude-Frequency Distribution of Earthquakes in California from 1850 to 2011
, By K.R. Felzer
Appendix M (PDF, 3.9 MB)
Adaptive Smoothed Seismicity Model
, By K.R. Felzer
Supplemental Materials (ZIP, 110 KB)
Appendix N (PDF, 6 MB)
Grand Inversion Implementation and Testing
, By Morgan T. Page, Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, and Peter M. Powers
Supplemental Material
Appendix O (PDF, 1 MB)
Gridded Seismicity Sources
, By Peter M. Powers and Edward H. Field
Appendix P (PDF, 41 MB)
Models of Earthquake Recurrence and Down-Dip Edge of Rupture for the Cascadia Subduction Zone
, By Arthur D. Frankel, and Mark D. Petersen
Appendix Q (PDF, 2.4 MB)
The Empirical Model
, By K.R. Felzer
Earthquake Catalog (TXT, 5.4 MB)
Appendix R (PDF, 4.4 MB)
Compilation of Slip-in-the-Last-Event Data and Analysis of Last Event, Repeated Slip, and Average Displacement for Recent and Prehistoric Ruptures
, By Chris Madden, David E. Haddad, J. Barrett Salisbury, Olaf Zielke, J. Ramón Arrowsmith, Ray J.Weldon, II, and Javier Colunga
Supplemental materials (ZIP, 42.6 MB)
Appendix S (PDF, 7.8 MB)
Constraining Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) Parameters from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 Catalog and Validating the ETAS Model for Magnitude 6.5 or Greater Earthquakes
, By Jeanne L. Hardebeck
Appendix T (PDF, 5.4 MB)
Defining the Inversion Rupture Set Using Plausibility Filters
, By Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Edward H. Field, Tom Parsons, Glenn P. Biasi, and Bruce E. Shaw
First posted November 5, 2013
Report
PDF (7.2 MB)
Fault Section Data (XLSX, 800 KB)
Pre-inversion Analysis (XLSX, 810 KB)
Supplemental Material
For additional information contact:
Contact Information
, Menlo Park, Calif.
Office—Earthquake Science Center
U.S. Geological Survey
345 Middlefield Road, MS 977
Menlo Park, CA 94025
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Suggested citation:
Field, E.H., Biasi, G.P., Bird, P., Dawson, T.E., Felzer, K.R., Jackson, D.D., Johnson, K.M., Jordan, T.H.,
Madden, C., Michael, A.J., Milner, K.R., Page, M.T., Parsons, T., Powers, P.M., Shaw, B.E., Thatcher,
W.R., Weldon, R.J., II, and Zeng, Y., 2013, Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3
(UCERF3)—The time-independent model: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013–1165, 97 p.,
California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication
1792, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/.
Contents
Abstract
Introduction
Fault Models
Deformation Models
Earthquake Rate Models and the “Grand Inversion”
Discussion
Conclusions and Recommendations
Acknowledgements
References
Data and Resources
FOIA
Policies and Notices
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
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Page Last Modified: Monday, 06-Jan-2014 15:42:49 EST