What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics? - Slashdot

What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics? - Slashdot
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Earlier this month Slashdot covered the Imperial College in London forecast of "what happens if the U.S.
does absolutely nothing to combat COVID-19
," which predicted 2.2 million deaths just in the U.S. and another 510,000 in Great Britain. The
paper
was co-written by Neil Ferguson, one of the world's leading epidemiologists, and "launched leaders in both countries into action," according to the Washington Post.
Earlier this month Ferguson posted on Twitter that Microsoft and GitHub are working to "
document, refactor and extend
" the thousands of lines of C code written over 13 years ago to run pandemic simulations, "to allow others to use [it] without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don't have time to give)."
But the Washington Post's national health correspondent and senior political reporter look at a new twist this week:
In recent days, a growing contingent of Trump supporters have
pushed the narrative that health experts are part of a deep-state plot
to hurt Trump's reelection efforts by damaging the economy and keeping the United States shut down as long as possible. Trump himself pushed this idea in the early days of the outbreak... After Ferguson gave new testimony to British officials Wednesday...Fox News host Laura Ingraham wrongly stated that in his testimony Ferguson's projection had been "corrected." The chyron on her show Thursday night stated, "Faulty models may be skewing COVID-19 data...."
But in fact, Ferguson had not revised his projections in his testimony, which he made clear in interviews and Twitter. His earlier study had made clear the estimate of 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States projected what could happen if both took absolutely no action against the coronavirus. The new estimate of 20,000 deaths in Britain was a projected result now that Britain had implemented strict restrictions, which this week came to include a full lockdown...
[O]ne factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models.
Related Links
Ask Slashdot: Should the Internet Be A Public Utility?
What Happens If the US Does Absolutely Nothing To Combat COVID-19?
Public Release of Newest Imperial College Report for the UK Delayed By 'Politicized Nature' of Lockdown Debate
Court Finds Algorithm Bias Studies Don't Violate US Anti-Hacking Law
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What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics?
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What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics?
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Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Funny)
by
nagora
( 177841 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @03:38AM (
#59887078
I'm stunned and amazed that such a reputable organisation would deliberately say something that was not true.
I assume heads will roll.
Share
Re:
Score:
by
TheReaperD
( 937405 )
writes:
Well, they're aiming for Ferguson's in this case.
Re:
Score:
by
nagora
( 177841 )
writes:
Well, they're aiming for Ferguson's in this case.
Ferguson doesn't work for anyone who cares what Fox News says.
Re:
Score:
by
TheReaperD
( 937405 )
writes:
I said they were aiming, I didn't say they were going to get it.
Re:
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by
JaredOfEuropa
( 526365 )
writes:
That’s nothing new either, and certainly not something unique to “the era of president Trump”. Suggestive language from the Post there.
Re:
Score:
by
Joce640k
( 829181 )
writes:
That’s nothing new either, and certainly not something unique to “the era of president Trump”. Suggestive language from the Post there.
Yep. Fox used to tell lies under Obama, too.
Re:
Score:
by
arglebargle_xiv
( 2212710 )
writes:
There's a difference. Other media sources will occasionally mis-report things, meaning get stories a bit wrong, typically when they're racing to be first to break a story. Only Fox however makes up whatever facts it needs for its stories.
Re:
Score:
by
Admiral Krunch
( 6177530 )
writes:
I'm stunned and amazed that such a reputable organisation would deliberately say something that was not true.
I assume heads will roll.
Nope, just eyes will roll.
Re:
Score:
by
Z80a
( 971949 )
writes:
Everyone wants to use the Corona virus for their own political gains.
It's like a bull rampaging thru the city and people just trying to lure the bull to wreck the rival's china shop and booing at the people trying to stop the bull.
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Informative)
by
Anonymous Coward
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @03:54AM (
#59887108
January 22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
February 2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
February 24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
February 25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
February 25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
February 26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
February 26: “We're going very substantially down, not up.”
February 27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
February 28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
March 2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
March 2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
March 4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
March 5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
March 5: “The United States has, as of now, only 129 cases and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
March 6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
March 6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
March 6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
March 6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
March 8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
March 9: “This blindsided the world.”
March 13: [Declared state of emergency]
March 17: “This is a pandemic,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”
Parent
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Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Funny)
by
xpiotr
( 521809 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:57AM (
#59887202
Homepage
Does Fox News remove old news, when they "change" their minds?
If not it would be informative with a link to each "news" release...
Maybe an animated GIF with a screen shot of each day...
Day1: "It's a democratic hoax"
...
DayN: "If only 100.000 dies, it will be a success!"
Parent
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Re:
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, Informative)
by
Sumguy2436
( 6186944 )
writes:
Day1: "It's a democratic hoax"
That right there calls into question the media's reporting on Trump. It's a widely reported lie. He didn't call the virus a hoax, he called the Democrats' weaponization of the outbreak their new hoax:
[thehill.com]
Makes you wonder how much of the media's anti-Trump reporting is actually true. Trump is certainly right that this is their new "Russian collusion" and impeachment campaign.
Re:
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by
Admiral Krunch
( 6177530 )
writes:
Day 1:We have it totally under control, It's one person coming in from China.
...
Day N: "If only 100,000 die, it will be a success!"
Is that more accurate for you.
Re:
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by
magusxxx
( 751600 )
writes:
Day N+1: "This is such a win. A win we wouldn't have gotten if Hillary Clinton was President."
Re:
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by
gtall
( 79522 )
writes:
What do you think "it's" refers to? Trump's ego?
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
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, Insightful)
by
ObliviousGnat
( 6346278 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @02:51PM (
#59889162
He didn't call the virus a hoax, he called the Democrats' weaponization of the outbreak their new hoax:
It was a double entendre. He intended for stupid people, both Democrat and Republican, to take it as meaning the virus itself was a hoax, and for more intelligent people like yourself, to think he meant the Democrats' weaponization of the outbreak to be a hoax (and then to subsequently help him attack the media for false reporting).
Both
interpretations are correct because that's how Donald J. Trump works.
We all know that he likes to stir up controversy like that because
he keeps doing it over and over again
, and he gained a lot of practice doing it while he was a reality TV star. He's a troll--and a pretty good one because even a smart person like yourself didn't realize he was trolling--and people love him for it.
Parent
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Re:
Score:
by
ISayWeOnlyToBePolite
( 721679 )
writes:
Does Fox News remove old news, when they "change" their minds?
If not it would be informative with a link to each "news" release...
Maybe an animated GIF with a screen shot of each day...
Day1: "It's a democratic hoax"
...
DayN: "If only 100.000 dies, it will be a success!"
Two weeks old so there ought to be better examples out there
[washingtonpost.com]
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Insightful)
by
God whale
( 6336978 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:41AM (
#59887696
You had massive misinformation coming straight out of china. The WHO declared that based on Chinese data there was no proof of human to human transmission.
[nypost.com]
How in the world is anyone supposed to plan with faulty information? If there was no human to human transmission, this virus wouldn't have spread as much as it did and the timeline for this was Jan 14th.
They started taking it seriously at the end of January while he was being impeached because from all the reports that things were out of control there, the expelling of journalists who tried digging into it, the buyback of tons of medical supplies around the world and the straight out lies of the severity of the problem.

This isn't a trump issue. Look at all the countries around the world and see that everyone is in horrible shape.
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by
Anonymous Coward
writes:
Why do you wish someone did the same of the news CNN / CNBC did? Do you elevate them onto the same position as the elected president of the US I wonder? Let that sink in. The country voted for him to be their representative. They chose him. CNN / CNBC however are private corporations who are after profits. They are not elected and don't have similar duties to the country as an elected official does.
Not agreeing with Trump, but
...
is the same bullshit as "I'm not racist, but..." to which something incredi
Re:
Score:
, Insightful)
by
PsychoSlashDot
( 207849 )
writes:
Apparently the idea of "Even a broken clock is right twice a day" is now controversial and anyone who doesn't lambaste
all
of the president's actions has to be just as bad as he is.
Most of Trump's critics would be more than satisfied if his supporters would decry just his
shitty
actions, because there are
so
many of them.
Then again we do live in a super politicized era where you see this kind of insanity from both sides of the aisle so I probably shouldn't be surprised when I run into it. While I am a cynic in more than online moniker, I do hope we'll eventually look back on this era much the same way we look back on slavery, scolding children using physical violence and women not having the vote. However being a cynic I don't actually expect it to happen and instead expect this attitude of "Everything the other side does is wrong and I must oppose it" to become the norm and start coloring even how we view the past with previously highly regarded people being demonized for being on the wrong side of the aisle.
An interesting idea
might
be if voters took into some account the opinions of those who are mostly impartial. For instance... Canadians, British, French... pretty much anyone who is a
partner
as opposed to either a rival or enemy. When the vast majority of the world scratches their heads and says "how do you people put up with this arrogant, racist, sexist, greedy,
Comment removed
Score:
, Interesting)
by
account_deleted
( 4530225 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @09:54AM (
#59887946
Comment removed based on user account deletion
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Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Insightful)
by
Oligonicella
( 659917 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @12:32PM (
#59888520
1. Trump is perfect.
Nobody believes that. When you start with straw, the rest of what you say isn't worth reading.
Parent
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Re: Unprecedented criticism of a U.S. president
Score:
by
orlanz
( 882574 )
writes:
Umm, we have an unprecedented IDIOT of a President. Have you heard him speak or twitter? People who go around telling everyone how much they know and how smart they are.... almost never do and aren't. Every bloody week of his presidency has so much idiotic content that people have lost all sense of how relatively idiotic it is. There is honestly TOO much to report on!
Re:
Score:
by
Joce640k
( 829181 )
writes:
And i wish someone did the same of the news CNN / CNBC etc spewed out during the same time.
... how was it..
Ummmm.... that wasn't Fox news. Those quotes are straight from the orange horse's mouth.
Re:
Score:
by
Nidi62
( 1525137 )
writes:
Ummmm.... that wasn't Fox news. Those quotes are straight from the orange horse's mouth.
There's a difference?
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Interesting)
by
jellomizer
( 103300 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:30AM (
#59888076
1. It wasn't closing all the borders, but from selected places, most notably countries Trump has had recent fits with.
2. Closing borders doesn't fix the problem. It takes one person to get by the cracks to make it happen on a wider scale.
3. The CDC had been defunded in the area that was studying global pandemics. Who knows what would have happened if they were allowed to operate for the past 3 years? They may have been able to work with China to create social distancing earlier.
4. We could had spent the last 3 years boosting American Infrastructure so more people were already working from home and companies had emergency plans ready.
The United States is the World's most powerful country. Like it or not we have responsibility on what happens and starts around the world. The America First polity has put our nation at extra risk because we live in an increasingly globalized world and letting other countries to loose will undoubtly come back to hurt us further down the line.
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Re:
Score:
by
gbjbaanb
( 229885 )
writes:
erm the whole article is about how politics has infected the national discourse that everything, even people dying, is seen through the lens of partisan political game playing.
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Insightful)
by
Opportunist
( 166417 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:34AM (
#59887502
Yes. It is. And instead of learning that this bullshit is partly responsible for the mess we're in, we just continue the same crap on here.
Parent
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Re:
Score:
, Interesting)
by
AmiMoJo
( 196126 )
writes:
It's a failure of our political structures. The courts are above even the president and lawmakers for a reason. In Star Fleet the Chief Medical Officer is the only one who can give the captain orders on medical grounds.
We should have doctors and scientists in charge now, not politicians. They should have the power to get things done, not be mere advisers to idiots who ignore them for political reasons.
Re:
Score:
by
skids
( 119237 )
writes:
Politics has real world consequences, and they must be factored in when making decisions. You can wish them away, but that will be about as effective as wishing it didn't snow in winter.
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Informative)
by
Tyler Durden
( 136036 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:45AM (
#59888122
Every event - no matter what - is used by some to blame the orange guy, or promote him. It's a product of the division sown by the MSM and by those who didn't get their way at the last election. We used to be willing to accept that we didn't always get our way, and be, while not perfect, more gracious losers than is in evidence now.
So can there be a time the press is allowed to take Trump to task for things he does and says, or will that always be framed as "division sown by the MSM and by those who didn't get their way at the last election"?
I was under the impression that US Presidents should be held accountable for their actions. It seems like that might be important.
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Re:
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by
AleRunner
( 4556245 )
writes:
Yeah, it's all Fox News and Trump's fault.

Oh wait:

24 Jan. - Slate :
Violating People’s Rights Is Not the Way to blah blah blah
[slate.com]
These people were wrong. They should have guessed, however they weren't in positions of power, didn't have full access to the information, and those in positions of power were definitely not listening to them. There might be some blame with Fox News - they clearly said the wrong thing, but I'm not sure if they did it deliberately or were just stupid/ignorant. A mix is probably more likely for most of them in which case some members of staff might deserve blame. Clearly, however the blame goes 100% to Tru
Re:
Score:
by
ilguido
( 1704434 )
writes:
Clearly, however the blame goes 100% to Trump.
Clearly? Then, why do you have a Congress, which is informed directly by the intelligence? Why do lobbyists spend billions of dollars every year to influence Congressmen, to finance their campaigns and so on, if they are worthless? The problems are way deeper and wider than you would like to admit.
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Informative)
by
ilguido
( 1704434 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:18AM (
#59887466
Measures to deal with the Covid-19 infections are purely a task for the Administration.
The Governor of New York on the proposed quarantine, which is a "measure to deal with the Covid-19 infection [that is] purely a task for the Administration" (as you put it):
it would be a 'federal declaration of war'
[cnn.com]. Nice.
By the way the
L.A. City Council
[latimes.com], the City Council(!!!) not the White House or the Governor, voted to prevent evictions from landlords during the COVID-19 related quarantine (and obviously failed, tenants in L.A. can be kicked out of their homes during a quarantine with the blessing of their Mayor). Ah, the quarantine there was imposed by the Governor.
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Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Insightful)
by
rho
( 6063 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @09:21AM (
#59887848
Journal
Let's be honest here. If Trump had shut down everything in December and only 4 Americans died, the news stories would be about how Trump killed the economy over a hoax scare because of his unchecked authoritarian impulses.
The situation is bad, but it's not because of anything in particular that Trump, Obama, Bush, or Clinton did or did not do. Enforced quarantine is bad for the spread of the disease, but it's also bad for the economy. A bad economy could mean nearly as many deaths from equipment shortages or other supply chain problems. Finding the right balance is nearly impossible at the best of times, and exponentially harder in our polarized political climate.
If you want better leaders, be better voters. Never forget the reason we have Trump is because out of 330 million available people, the Democrat party thought Hillary Clinton was the best alternative.
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Re:
Score:
by
TomGreenhaw
( 929233 )
writes:
>The situation is bad, but it's not because of anything in particular that Trump, Obama, Bush, or Clinton did or did not do.
This is simply incorrect.
During the Bush administration a stockpile of ventilators and masks was ordered. The Obama administration used many of the masks and neither the Obama or Trump administration chose to replenish the stock. The ventilator order is a classic example of failed government bureaucracy where the ventilators ordered more than a decade ago were never provided due
Re:
Score:
by
Prien715
( 251944 )
writes:
Let's be honest here. If Trump had shut down everything in December and only 4 Americans died, the news stories would be about how Trump killed the economy over a hoax scare because of his unchecked authoritarian impulses.
So you're saying the most important factor is about how POTUS is treated by the media, not how many Americans die of a global pandemic? In the long run, we'll see how our country does relative to others and decide the merits of his actions or inactions. Right now, the US is #1 in COVID19 c
Re:
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by
account_deleted
( 4530225 )
writes:
Comment removed based on user account deletion
Re:
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by
DCFusor
( 1763438 )
writes:
Sides are the problem here.
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by
bloodhawk
( 813939 )
writes:
relevant how? Does the US government rely on chinese data to react to a local crisis now? I guess that could explain how incompetent they have been.
Re:Fox News Lies Shock
Score:
, Informative)
by
AleRunner
( 4556245 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:42AM (
#59887180
relevant how? Does the US government rely on chinese data to react to a local crisis now? I guess that could explain how incompetent they have been.
In this case we pretty much know that it's a virus that randomly came over from a wet market in China, however imagine that it
had
been a bio-weapon in which case the Chisian, Russese or Syranian governments would have sent it over having vaccinated their own key people in advance. We would have had
no
warning and
no
epidemiological data in advance. There wouldn't have been scientific papers out of China telling everyone exactly what they had to do to react. There wouldn't be access to ventilators, masks and tests coming from China to help everyone. The Russians wouldn't be flying emergency supplies into Italy.
Covid-19 should be seen as a very mild warning that none of the US, UK or the rest of Europe were anywhere near as ready as they claimed or should have been. Whoever is trying to blame the Chinese for their own failures should be identified and never allowed access to government work, money or positions ever again. Frankly they should be branded on their foreheads as traitors.
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Re:
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by
Joce640k
( 829181 )
writes:
This.
Trump's attempt to paint this as a "Foreign" virus was truly pathetic.
(...and his "solution" of closing the borders followed by a press briefing to tell us that it was "now under control!"? Doubly so.)
Contrary to what Trump keeps on repeating: The entire medical world DID know that this was coming one day, it's always been a much more realistic threat then the "war" that the USA spends trillions of $$$ preparing for every year.
I really hope that this serves to divert some of that funding into stockpili
You're Soaking In It
Score:
by
buravirgil
( 137856 )
writes:
Does the US government rely on chinese data to react to a local crisis now? I guess that could explain how incompetent they have been.
` ~bloodhawk
Story of How H-E-B Planned for the Pandemic:
The grocer started communicating with Chinese counterparts in January and was running tabletop simulations a few weeks later. (But nothing prepared it for the rush on toilet paper.)
Turn back now
Score:
, Insightful)
by
Delicious Pun
( 3864033 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @03:56AM (
#59887114
Holy fuck this comments section is going to be terrible. Just turn back. There will be nothing of actual value here.
Share
Re:
Score:
by
Joce640k
( 829181 )
writes:
They're not even addressing the question!
To answer it: "What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics?"
What happens is the current clusterfuck that's unfolding on TV.
Re:
Score:
by
cold fjord
( 826450 )
writes:
Media driven hysteria compounding unlikely scenarios from models isn't pretty.
Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions
[realclearpolitics.com]
Re:
Score:
by
AleRunner
( 4556245 )
writes:
They're not even addressing the question!
To answer it: "What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics?"
What happens is the current clusterfuck that's unfolding on TV.
I'll address it too. People die. Lots of people die needlessly. What more do you need? The USA had more warning than South Korea and is further from China than South Korea. The comparison of
the pandemic in South Korea
[wikipedia.org] which was one of the earlies countries outside China to get the disease and so should be one of the worst affected compared to
what's happening in the UK
[wikipedia.org] where WHO advice was ignored for months and is still not fully implemented or the
pandemic in the USA
[wikipedia.org] clearly shows that there are man
Re:
Score:
by
NateFromMich
( 6359610 )
writes:
They're not even addressing the question!
To answer it: "What Happens When Epidemiologists are Undermined By Politics?"
That's because they're undermined by politics.
Politics is everything now. You can't just turn to the news to see what's going on, because you first have to decide whether you want the left-wing or right-wing version of the news.
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by
JonnyCalcutta
( 524825 )
writes:
Can't...turn...away...help....me
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by
Opportunist
( 166417 )
writes:
The value is that while things suck in my country, it's comforting to see that it can still be worse.
American CEO
Score:
, Insightful)
by
khchung
( 462899 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:04AM (
#59887122
Journal
[O]ne factor many modelers failed to predict was how politicized their work would become in the era of President Trump, and how that in turn could affect their models.
I guess these researchers, not surprisingly, never worked in any large US companies.
What Trump did was essentially SOP of any US CEO:
* When you hear bad news, you pretend you didn't hear it
* When pressed, say whatever that will make it sound like you are on top of the problem and make stock holders happy
* When further bad news came, say it will be fixed in the near future, make promises with good visual impact - "by [certain time], you will see
....". That will put huge pressure on your workers to make it happen
* When all the above didn't work, say what your experts had been telling you all along, forget what you have said previously.
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Re:American CEO
Score:
, Funny)
by
h33t l4x0r
( 4107715 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:40AM (
#59887176
If you're running the country like a business, you're treating CDC briefings like sales pitches: "You've got 5 minutes to sell your idea, and then I'm turning on Hannity."
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Re:
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by
Kjella
( 173770 )
writes:
If you're running the country like a business, you're treating CDC briefings like sales pitches: "You've got 5 minutes to sell your idea, and then I'm turning on Hannity."
I think every InfoSec person knows *exactly* what this is like. You want to use how much on antivirus/firewalls/IDS/backup/disaster recovery with no immediate ROI? One of many reasons I got out of that area.
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by
SomeoneFromBelgium
( 3420851 )
writes:
Did you mean
this
[twitter.com]?
Simple
Score:
, Insightful)
by
gweihir
( 88907 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:14AM (
#59887132
This is one area where reality kills those that ignore it pretty fast. Ignore the experts in an epidemic, cause a lot of deaths, ideally including the ones ignoring the experts as well, so there is at least a small chance of something positive coming out of it. For example, the delayed response of a certain orange-haired fool will have pushed the number of dead this time up by at least 10x. Pretty much the same in Spain and the UK, and probably Italy, with Spain being a bit ahead and Italy being a lot ahead in the time-line.
In contrast, global warming (which is several orders of magnitude more deadly) has the main problem that anybody that can do basic fact-checking can by now see the catastrophe coming, but it is a long, long way off and those that still massively profit from doing nothing or accelerating the catastrophe will be difficult to take to account for their evil. The completely invalid excuse of "nobody could have predicted this" also gets a lot more effective the longer the time between cause and effect, because people in general have short memories.
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, Insightful)
by
AmiMoJo
( 196126 )
writes:
Problem is our individual health now depends on our neighbours. So does the economy. If everyone sticks to the rules this can be over as quickly as possible with as few deaths as possible, but as long as there are selfish asshats and misinformation being spread from the very top of government that isn't going to happen.
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Zocalo
( 252965 )
writes:
This, and I guess the geographic distribution of Reps/Dems too - e.g. more aligned with urban/rural lines than state ones, per the
Purple America
[wikipedia.org] map. Those that are more likely to take Trump's worldview on Covid-19 and dismiss the contrary science as "Fake News" are more likely to be Republicans, and since many of those tend to live in more rural areas, they're going to be at a reduced risk of contracting it by virtue of fewer interactions, so it's going to balance out somewhat. That's not to say that th
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by
gweihir
( 88907 )
writes:
True, but it's almost become an article of faith under Trump. The if Trump says "fake news" then the true believers are absolutely going to dismiss it out of hand, even if it's something that is completely and obviously false.
There is even solid science to explain what is happening (https://www.theauthoritarians.org) but not really why. I really do not get it. I mean, in all that is verifiable for an individual, science works. Yet these people place belief so far over science that they cannot even see science anymore and mistake it for a competing belief. But in most basic things, they do accept science or they would kill themselves by accident pretty fast. It is like these people have a subconscious base-mind that accepts scien
Re:Simple
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, Insightful)
by
clonehappy
( 655530 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @09:08AM (
#59887816
Yet these people place belief so far over science that they cannot even see science anymore and mistake it for a competing belief. But in most basic things, they do accept science or they would kill themselves by accident pretty fast. It is like these people have a subconscious base-mind that accepts science and keeps them alive (well, mostly), and a conscious moron that will strongly believe in any and all fairy-tales their great leader spouts (even if frequently changed) and that does not even attempt basic fact-checking for some reason. How can you live like that?
There are 82 genders though, right?
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by
Luckyo
( 1726890 )
writes:
>>Are trans women biologically female?
>If they have transitioned then yes, biologically they may as well be female. To preempt a counterpoint, if a woman has a hysterectomy or has her ovaries removed is she no longer biologically female?
I hope you're trolling and not this confused about reality. See, if "woman with hysterectomy is still a woman", then "man with amputated penis and an artificial cavity within them is still a man".
Which makes your statement self-contradictory on merits, unless you'r
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, Insightful)
by
gweihir
( 88907 )
writes:
Indeed. Although there are a lot of morons that not only tolerate proven liars at the top, but seem to want them. So it is not only some "asshats". It is more like a major fraction of the population has their heads up their backsides and does not understand that lying about reality does not actually change it and often makes things worse. It is like people desperately want to believe in fairy-tales and magic. (For a pretty impressive data-point just look at how many people are still religious in this suppos
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by
buravirgil
( 137856 )
writes:
Ignore the experts in an epidemic, cause a lot of deaths, ideally including the ones ignoring the experts as well, so there is at least a small chance of something positive coming out of it.
... because people in general have short memories.
~gweihir
Indiscriminate loss "ideally" resulting in "at least a small chance" to produce "something positive" demonstrates a "memory" loss of what words mean within a sentence serving a premise to assign motivation to an agenda.
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by
gweihir
( 88907 )
writes:
I cannot even parse that fully and what I can parse makes no sense. Overly complex "statement" generator that assembles "sentences" from a give list of words?
Re:Simple
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, Insightful)
by
thegarbz
( 1787294 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @06:27AM (
#59887374
This is one area where reality kills those that ignore it pretty fast.
If only that were true. The reality is that those people who put the best effort into ignoring it and spreading ignorance to the masses are usually the people who will be just fine. If Trump got the virus now he'd get the best healthcare in the world. If Fox News correspondents got the virus they'll likely be fine, but if they weren't they'd be replaced quite easily with the next person who can easily spread ignorance.
The people who will suffer the most are those who believe lies fed to them, and 3rd parties who are caught in the crossfire of stupidity.
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by
140Mandak262Jamuna
( 970587 )
writes:
But their stock portfolios will suffer.
You can own media, you distort the narrative. But when the economy stumbles, and stock plunges, their perceived networth wll reduce. The closest thing the Republicans have that passes for a soul is the feelings they have for their stock market portfolio. So, yeah, these days, stock market is the only thing that can send a message to the political leaders that they can not ignore.
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by
Jzanu
( 668651 )
writes:
I propose an old fashion but much faster and more ethical solution: shooting at dawn for any coronavirus denialist found to have caused the death of anyone else.
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gweihir
( 88907 )
writes:
Nope, there are not. Somebody without a clue how to interpret the results of such a trial may come to that false conclusion though. All we currently know is that it does not have a high probability to make things strongly worse. And that means doing actually controlled trials are unlikely to kill a lot of people. And that is all that is known at this time.
To be fair...
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, Informative)
by
Rei
( 128717 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:21AM (
#59887146
Homepage
... the impacts of the lockdown are not the only factor updated by Ferguson in his model. He also updated the pre-lockdown R0 from 2,5 to 3. This may not sound like much of a change, but because it's an exponential factor, it implies that far more people have the disease relative to how many have been detected (something already shown by the Iceland/deCODE and Italy/Vo studies).
You cannot separate his 20k figure from the lockdown impacts, which have also been factored into the model. But nor is the original 550k figure valid anymore, either. Ferguson has not "walked back" anything, but the model has evolved in several different ways. The 550k figure should no longer be cited. But the 20k figure should only be cited in the context of the lockdown.
The changes to the model also shift the peak date, from nov.-dec. to just 2-3 weeks from now. Ferguson has also clarified that he never thought locking down the economy for a year or two was actually plausible, that even a short stop will be paid for for years or decades to come; he's more focused on how and when to restart the economy in the near-term. He wants to see the UK implement the sort of policies that South Korea has (which - unrelated - Iceland has already done), which allowed it to avoid a lockdown. Ferguson also added that we don't know how many of the people dying would have died anyway this year, but
"It might be as much as half to two-thirds of the deaths we're seeing from COVID-19, because it's affecting people who are either at the end of their lives or in poor health conditions. So I think these considerations are very valid."
Basically, one of the biggest changes has been his tone; the original report left people with the impression that the only solution is for us all to live in caves for the next two years and there will be people hauling carts in the street shouting, "BRING OUT YOUR DEAD!".
But the original report was not "retracted" in any way. Just obsoleted, and with a
lot
more nuance added.
Summary here
[reason.com].
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by
Admiral Krunch
( 6177530 )
writes:
. But nor is the original 550k figure valid anymore, either. Ferguson has not "walked back" anything, but the model has evolved in several different ways. The 550k figure should no longer be cited.
Yes the original figure is still valid.
He says as much himself...
[twitter.com]
I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand)
If nothing is done, it's still the base line number. If people don't know what the alternative will be, they aren't going to take things seriously or put up with the mitigation measures to hopefully bring it down to 20k.
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by
Rei
( 128717 )
writes:
I had not seen that tweet. That's a strange comment, because he
did
increase R0 in the latest study, which has a profound impact on the outcome, independent of the lockdown effects (as it greatly changes the estimated current number of cases, and thus greatly changes the IFR).
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by
Admiral Krunch
( 6177530 )
writes:
Maybe it changed the rate, but the hospitals were all overwhelmed anyway so didn't make much difference to the outcome with no mitigation.
But with mitigation it makes a bigger difference because the hospitals aren't getting overwhelmed as much as the earlier predictions. Or herd immunity was built up faster. Or the lockdown was shorter and so politically easier to implement. Just guessing really.
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by
Rei
( 128717 )
writes:
From the above article:
"What we've been seeing in Europe in the last week or two is a rate of growth of the epidemic which is faster than we expected from early data in China," said Ferguson, who testified from his home via video link.
"So we are revising our central, best estimate of the reproduction number [i.e., the number of people the average carrier can be expected to infect] to something on the order of 3 or a little bit above rather than about a 2.5 level."
In his view, that revision "actually adds
$2 trillion
Score:
, Insightful)
by
backslashdot
( 95548 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:26AM (
#59887152
We spend $2 trillion on bailouts and paying people to buy toilet paper, but only $1 billion of that is for research? Why not put real money into finding cures for disease? I mean put like $50 billion into it FFS. And yes there are lots to do, like figuring out how to modulate the immune system, how to make a vaccine against this thing. Making molecules that can bind and disable the viral proteins etc. FFS there is no money put into that stuff and people wonder why we can't cure this stuff.
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Comment removed
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, Insightful)
by
account_deleted
( 4530225 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:41AM (
#59887698
Comment removed based on user account deletion
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Perhaps a new generation with new standards.
Score:
, Interesting)
by
tgibson
( 131396 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:26AM (
#59887154
Homepage
Perhaps the experience of the pandemic will change the values of the political coming-of-age generation. The prescriptive educational movies from the 1950's are quaint and silly to us now, but seem less so when you place them in the context of a generation that came of age during WW2. This pandemic may well shake the younger generation out of their stupor and nudge them towards values that are less prone to being influenced by showmanship and more amenable to solving problems through earnest discussions, even if uncomfortable.
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Re:Perhaps a new generation with new standards.
Score:
, Insightful)
by
93 Escort Wagon
( 326346 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:37AM (
#59887170
Are you referring to the same younger generation which was flocking by the thousands to spring break locations in Florida and Mexico a couple weeks ago?
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Re: Perhaps a new generation with new standards.
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by
peragrin
( 659227 )
writes:
That would be generiation z. Millennials, and generation x are home with kids student loans they refinanced privately to get better rates, car payments, etc.
Idiots can't tell the difference between the groups. Here is a hint the young group changes as they grow up.
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by
Luckyo
( 1726890 )
writes:
And one who didn't do stupid things when he/she was in his/her late teens/earlier adult years can cast the first stone.
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by
account_deleted
( 4530225 )
writes:
Comment removed based on user account deletion
It isn’t just about science v politics
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by
Bongo
( 13261 )
writes:
At one extreme you have idiot presidents and at the other you have top people in a science field, so it is a no-brainer...
however, the really interesting arguments are in the middle ground, where doctors, economists, and all varieties of experts, are debating what’s a least worst course of action, and the answers are not at all easy.
As one very high level and experienced global expert put it, the strategy of lockdown is medieval. As another expert familiar with NICE operations put it, we are spending
It's like watching a 70s disaster movie
Score:
, Interesting)
by
Opportunist
( 166417 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @05:45AM (
#59887302
I will never again moan about how unrealistic they are.
You know the movies. Where the world renowned scientist notices that something is going terribly wrong and tries to warn politicians and people alike, only to be ignored and belittled, has his reputation ruined and descends into alcoholism, only to see his worse predictions come true.
Only that in reality, he won't be redeemed and returns to save the day.
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Score:
by
magusxxx
( 751600 )
writes:
Remember in The Andromeda Strain how the scientists were shocked to find out the facility they were in was built way ahead of time.
"We knew something like this would happen eventually."
Obviously their government had more foresight than we have.
This is one of the most plausible scientific epidemic movies ever made and for some reason it's only available on pay-per-view.
Many people die that shouldn't have.
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by
Qbertino
( 265505 )
writes:
Next question.
Actuaries, actually
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by
GerryHattrick
( 1037764 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @06:12AM (
#59887348
Years ago, when I worked on the response to (then-new) 'AIDS', epidemiologists were very helpful. But we shared an office with a qualified Actuary, and she kept us all very practical. When it came to persuading management, her numbers carried more weight than our elegant monte-carlo simulations. (footnote: the result was less bad over time than anyone had expected).
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I wouldn't count on it
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by
slashmydots
( 2189826 )
writes:
Trump wouldn't say climate change is happening if Antarctica disappeared and he was standing waist deep in water. I wouldn't trust him to make proper decisions on the pandemic either. It's politics and business first, logic and science second and he thinks he's always right about everything and should have the final say. That said, as an American I'm sick of solving the world's problems with my tax dollars. China caused it, everyone else go fix it.
literally every side has the same reaction
Score:
, Interesting)
by
superwiz
( 655733 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @06:45AM (
#59887406
Journal
Every political party in every country reacts to this in the same way:
There is less than 250 ppl who are infected: this is less severe than the flu, there is no reason to panic. We are well prepared.
There is less than a 1000 ppl who are infected. It may get worse, so, please, wash your hands everyone.
There is less than 5000 ppl who are infected, please avoid crowded places because this can some people
There is more than 2000 ppl who are dead. If you can't listen to reason and go outside and you don't absolutely have to, we are gonna put you in jail, you idiots.
Hope dies last. This isn't unique to any political party or any country. This is literally happening everywhere. Survivorship bias is real.
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No Western leader was willing to do the necessary
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by
Solandri
( 704621 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:02AM (
#59887446
Except for South Korea (who learned their lesson in 2015 with MERS), no Western leader was willing to do what was necessary to stop this virus from spreading. If you wanted to halt COVID-19, you needed to take quick and decisive action the moment any case was detected. None of this pansy self-quarantining of people who test positive or suspect they might be infected. The entire town or city needed to be quarantined the moment a case was detected, with police and the military patrolling the streets to enforce the quarantine.
Unlike China (which had no problem doing this since they're an authoritarian state) and South Korea, and possibly Japan (haven't heard much news from them, but their citizens are incredibly compliant to authority), the rest of the West likely isn't going to stop this. They're on a trajectory where this becomes like the flu - the majority of their population will eventually catch it. The only difference politics will make in those countries is whether or not they can keep the number of sick at any given time below their hospital capacity. Because none of their leaders had the guts to face the public backlash that swift and strict quarantines would've caused because "it hasn't even killed as many people as the flu!" Heck, the European press was chastising Trump for banning all flights from the EU to the U.S., saying it was a pointless and ineffective gesture. When within a week their countries did the same thing and sealed their borders. That's how allergic democracies are to restricting freedom of movement.
The moment this was detected in that Washington nursing home, the entire town should've been locked down and sealed. When it was detected in NYC, the bridges and tunnels to the city should've been closed for a minimum 3 weeks. Yes those closures would've cost hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. But by failing to nip this in the bud, we've now guaranteed that this epidemic will cost us trillions of dollars.
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Re:No Western leader was willing to do the necessa
Score:
, Informative)
by
Luckyo
( 1726890 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:58AM (
#59887566
Having read up a bit beyond mainstream narrative, this is simply not true because it's a half-truth. The speed and quality of South Korea response talked about in mainstream media narrative is only part of truth. The other half however is missing utterly and its critical to understanding South Korean success.
It's completely correct that having been hit by two previous China Flus this century and then MERS, they decided that enough was enough and created a system to contain future China Flus. It's completely correct to point out the speed with which limits on movement of people was exceptional, as was their effort to test everyone in infected areas rather than just those with symptoms. That's half of the story.
The other half is "how did it get in?" It got in through a church which had overwhelmingly young worshippers who lead a relatively introverted lifestyle. They didn't have to deal with "it's in through all our international airports carried by people without/with minor flu symptoms" issue that other Western nations had to deal with, because once the initial problem occurred, they started locking things down. And initial infection was exceptionally easy (from institutional point of view) to lock down.
If it's in your nursing homes for the elderly, it's already too late for a South Korean style response, because it means that people who spread it likely came on an airplane. Which means you have the same problem across your nation with multiple entry points, many of which are have no symptoms and are infectious.
And that will require a much more invasive response to properly lock down propagation.
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The fool who influenced Trump's COVID Policy
Score:
by
Required Snark
( 1702878 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:39AM (
#59887694
He's Richard Epstein, as reported in the
New Yorker:
[newyorker.com]
Epstein, a professor at New York University School of Law, published the article on the Web site of the Hoover Institution, on March 16th. In it, he questioned the World Health Organization’s decision to declare the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic, said that “public officials have gone overboard,” and suggested that about five hundred people would die from COVID-19 in the U.S. Epstein later updated his estimate to five thousand, saying that the previous number had been an error. So far, there have been more than two thousand coronavirus-related fatalities in America; epidemiologists’ projections of the total deaths range widely, depending on the success of social distancing and the availability of medical resources, but they tend to be much higher than Epstein’s. (On Sunday, Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, estimated that there could be between a hundred thousand and two hundred thousand deaths in the U.S.)
Epstein is a right wing pundit run amok. He thinks he knows better then any epidemiologist or medical professional and confuses his lawyerly ability to argue with scientific reasoning. His thinking is ass-backwards: the result comes first and the bullshit gobbledygook only exists to justify the conclusion, except it doesn't work.
Read the article, it's the best way to see how "post truth" Conservativism enables irrational behavior.
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Virus
Score:
, Interesting)
by
Schmo Schollie
( 6164562 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:02AM (
#59887960
Is a virus. Doesn't matter where it originated, only matters how it was initially perceived and handled per jurisdiction. The evidence points to "very poor" as the answer to both categories in areas that haven't seen a drop off or plateau in new cases death.
Not to mention about 5-10% of confirmed patients have relapsed after being deemed "recovered". It isn't just a one-and-done. changes everything.....the fact that we live in a reality where misinformation goes as far to call it a hoax is fucking insulting.
My mom is a doctor on the front line short of supplies and one of my best friends, in his 30s mind you, still has trashed lungs as he continues to recover from getting the virus.
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The party of stupid
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by
OneHundredAndTen
( 1523865 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @10:36AM (
#59888096
Not for nothing is the Republican Party now known as the party of stupid, even by some of those ideologically aligned with it.
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Re:
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by
Dog-Cow
( 21281 )
writes:
* the way it goes.
Re:
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by
buravirgil
( 137856 )
writes:
So it goes.
~ Kurt Vonnegut Jr.
A Mencke Quotation
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, Insightful)
by
Epeeist
( 2682 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:03AM (
#59887120
Homepage
As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.
H.L. Mencken, On Politics: A Carnival of Buncombe
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Re:A Mencke Quotation
Score:
, Informative)
by
gweihir
( 88907 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @04:17AM (
#59887134
Indeed. Pretty prophetic. As a group, a democratic country with bad leadership has a problem with the voters. The leadership is just a symptom of that.
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A Franklin Quotation
Score:
, Insightful)
by
MrKaos
( 858439 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @05:29AM (
#59887268
Journal
In these sentiments, sir, I agree to this Constitution, with all its faults and believe further, that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other.
- Benjamin Franklin
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Re:Democracy
Score:
, Funny)
by
Opportunist
( 166417 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @05:39AM (
#59887284
"It's what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders. Term limits ain't going to do any good; you're just going to end up with a brand new bunch of selfish, ignorant Americans. So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it's not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here... like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks. There's a nice campaign slogan for somebody: 'The Public Sucks. F*ck Hope.”"
--George Carlin
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Re:
Score:
by
Joce640k
( 829181 )
writes:
Unfortunately it won't only be those people who might suffer and die from the medical system being overwhelmed with cases. Everyone else who is in need of medical services will be affected as well.
Sometimes the best thing to do is just grab the bad thing and rip it off, even if it hurts.
Re:Democracy
Score:
, Informative)
by
God whale
( 6336978 )
writes:
on Monday March 30, 2020 @08:48AM (
#59887732
... The electoral college is not a technicality. Stating it as such means you have no idea how this system works.
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Re:
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, Insightful)
by
Anonymous Coward
writes:
I don't find this funny in any way shape or form.
But i do want to point out that 2 million dead is ~0.6% of the population in the US.
Look at Italy 97689 infected and 10779 dead and these numbers are still going up but are slowing a bit. With a x10 undetected cases that would be ~1% CFR.
Look at Spain 80110 infected and 6803 dead and those numbers are still going up. With a x10 undetected cases that would be ~0.8% CFR.
I would have preferred for this to never happen.
I would prefer that the CCP would not have h
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